Resale Numbers Dissappoint – but…  HAMP was a Success!

NAR released the July home resale numbers, and as predicted, they fell significantly.  The fell far below analysts expectations, and even farther that I predicted in my Coffee on Monday.  Here are two graphs that illustrate the results (once again taken from www.CaluclatedRiskBlog.com)

This first one shows home sales by month (resale homes only):

Existing Home Sales Slump in July

You can see the trend was clearly down until early 2009 when the administration stimulated the housing market with the tax credit.  Sales spiked in November of 2009 with the scheduled expiration of the tax credit and then again early this year with the real end of the tax credit.  Now, we have resumed the downard trend.  Based on August numbers in the San Diego market so far (I know, small sample size), it looks like things may get a little worse (July sales were down in San Diego 20% from a year ago and I think August will be down about 24%), I will look at the numbers more closely in next week’s Coffee. 

With the combination of slower sales and more homes being put on the market by builders (new construction spurred by the short term rise in demand), banks (more aggressively processing foreclosures), and individuals (summer season sees more homes offered for sale), inventory as measured by months of sales, spiked:

Nationwide Inventory Jumps to over 12 months

Ouch, that’s a big jump.  Inventory rising that quickly in one month is a bad indicator.  Plus, as foreclosures will continue to be put on the market, this number could grow to 14-15 months.  Inventory levels over 6-7 months usually result in lower prices.  Fortunately, we are in much better shape here in San Diego with inventory levels still under 5 months.  However, significantly lower sales levels in August will drive that number up.

I found an interesting article about a meeting at the Treasury between top players there (including Geitner) and several prominent bloggers.  You can see the article here.  The blog this is taken from is www.interfluidity.com.  The interesting part was when they addressed HAMP, you know, the Home Affordable Modification Program.  While it has been considered by most to be a failure, the Treasury thinks it was a success because it basically pushed the foreclosure problem down the road 3-6 months so the banks could recover.  The argument was that if all the homes had been foreclosed on instead of going through the delay, the system might have failed:

The conversation next turned to housing and HAMP. On HAMP, officials were surprisingly candid. The program has gotten a lot of bad press in terms of its Kafka-esque qualification process and its limited success in generating mortgage modifications under which families become able and willing to pay their debt. Officials pointed out that what may have been an agonizing process for individuals was a useful palliative for the system as a whole. Even if most HAMP applicants ultimately default, the program prevented an outbreak of foreclosures exactly when the system could have handled it least. There were murmurs among the bloggers of “extend and pretend”, but I don’t think that’s quite right. This was extend-and-don’t-even-bother-to-pretend. The program was successful in the sense that it kept the patient alive until it had begun to heal. And the patient of this metaphor was not a struggling homeowner, but the financial system, a.k.a. the banks. Policymakers openly judged HAMP to be a qualified success because it helped banks muddle through what might have been a fatal shock. I believe these policymakers conflate, in full sincerity, incumbent financial institutions with “the system”, “the economy”, and “ordinary Americans”. Treasury officials are not cruel people. I’m sure they would have preferred if the program had worked out better for homeowners as well. But they have larger concerns, and from their perspective, HAMP has helped to address those.

It’s an interesting take, and correct from the standpoint that it helped the system.  Isn’t it interesting that when the politicians sold it to us, they emphasized the saving of people’s homes rather than saving the system.  Also a sidelight to watch is  now that the stimulus is over, we are seeing the foreclosures that were delayed by HAMP start to be processed just as demand is falling.

Updated Government Foreclosure Data

This week, the government released some updated foreclosure date from Q2.  These charts are re-prints from a blog I subscribe to called CalculatedRisk.   It can be found at www.CalculatedRiskBlog.com  I highly recommend it as the person who runs it does a pretty good job of assimilating different economic data.  Even if I don’t always like it, which brings me to the following charts:

Government Guaranteed and Owned Foreclosures

This first chart shows that Fannie, Freddie and FHA are now the proud owners of almost 250,000 homes (this is not all the foreclosures, just the ones taxpayers are on the hook directly for).  The number is increasing as banks are processing more foreclosures for people who just don’t qualify for a loan modification. 

This next chart taxes it a step farther and is really what caught my attention, it shows how many people are upside down on their mortgages.  This is important because if the economy were to go into another recession, these are people who have less incentive to hold onto their homes.  I look at it as the worst case, since anyone with positive equity would try to sell and avoid foreclosure. 

Almost one-third of homeowners are underwater

 The number are scary – 30.6% of homeowners under water and a total of almost $2.4B under water (this is just the portion of their loan in excess of the home value).  Also, these are first mortgages; more people are under water if you consider their second mortgages also.  But, it’s not all bad.  The next chart made me happy I don’t live in Nevada!

Negative Equity by State

Ouch.  California doesn’t look as bad as some of these other states.  And, for those of us in San Diego, we’re better off than most of California.

 Combining all three of these charts, it is evident that the housing recovery is tenuous at best.   Combined with the slowing pace of sales after the tax credit expiration I believe it is cause for concern.

San Diego July Home Sales Fall with Tax Credit Expiration

A quick look at the July sales number shows sales fell of pretty much as expected due to the expiration of the federal home buyer tax credit.  Before going into this years numbers, I need to wipe the egg off my face and make a correction:

I always try and look at the sales numbers as soon as the month ends and then go back a month later and re-run the reports.  The reason for this is that while agents are supposed to update closings within 48 hours, it doesn’t always happen.  Well, last July, I forgot to do that.  In previous posts, I have been using a sales number for July of 2009 of about 2,900 homes – based on available data on August 1, 2009.  The true number should have been updated to 3,424 homes sold in July of 2009. 

Ok, now that that embarrassment has been cleared up, here are the numbers for San Diego Home Sales in July:

July 2009  -  3,424                        July 2010 – 2,342 (this number will likely rise by 200-300 over the next week)

Year to date 2009 – 19,555         Year to date 2010 – 19421

You can see our year to date number does not look bad at all.  That’s because the first half of the year benefited from government stimulus that is now gone.  Sometimes it is easier to see things graphically:

San Diego County Home Sales and Inventory

 As you can see, the homes sold (yellow line on the bottom) took a bit of a dive as expected and you can see the inventory rising a bit.  If you look back at the Active Homes over the years, you see the treand of inventory increasing mid to late summer.   Of course, last year was an exception as the tax credit kept demand strong while the banks held back foreclosures and still had not put in place good processes for handling short sales.   The one factor you don’t get out of this graph easily is the underlying rate of change; in other words, “How fast is the inventory situation changing?”  By looking at how fast things are changing, we can get an idea if this is a typical “seasonal” change or if it is potentially something more.

Change in Inventory Levels for San Diego County Homes

A couple of explanations:

• Months of inventory is calculated by taking the number of homes on the market at the end of the month and dividing it by the average sales rate over the last 12 months.  This avoids extreme spikes and valleys in the summer and over the holidays, but also makes changes slower to appear.
• The blue area plat is the % Change in inventory over the previous year.  Numbers above zero means that inventory is growing and numbers below zero mean that inventory is decreasing.  Since the numbers are compared to a year prior, this data starts a year after the inventory data.

The key thing I see with this chart is how quickly inventory is changing after the tax credit expired.  In March, inventory was still falling at a rate of 46% (over the previous year) and in July, it rose 27%.  So, while the inventory level is not worrisome at this point (4.4 months), we should watch next month to see if t continues to grow (it is up 50% compared to the end of last year).

Monday Morning Coffee

July Sales Numbers for San Diego

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  It’s getting late, so this is going to be quick (and no, I did not destroy anymore of my rear yard installing the drip system this week). 

 July numbers for San Diego home sales were low, as expected.  However, I had made a mistake in not updating my numbers for July 2009 (agents take awhile to change escrows into sales and I had not updated my numbers in mid August of last year).  So, instead of 2900 homes sold last July, there were 3,424 sold in San Diego.  Against that number, July 2010 looks pretty sad.  Total sales for July of this year were 2,342 (this will probably increase by about 200-300 as agents finish reporting).  Still, that’s off 32% from last year and I am hoping that we end up less than 25% down by the time the dust settles. 

 Active listings increased from 9,372 last year to 12,840 at the end of July.  This is up about 650 from June – most of the increase due to a lower sales rate rather than an increase in listings.

 I will do a blog post that breaks it into much more detail later, but as I said, it’s getting late!

 No new homes for sale this week, but we do have a rental coming up.  If you know someone looking in the 4S Ranch area, we have a 3 bedroom condo with a view in Sitella available almost immediately.  I will be taking photos Monday morning and it should be online by the afternoon.  Please get ahold of me if you are interested.

 That’s it, enjoy the coffee! 

 Thinking “Out Of The Bag”

Many hundreds of years ago in a small Italian town, a merchant had the misfortune of owing a large sum of money to the moneylender. The moneylender, who was old and ugly, fancied the merchant’s beautiful daughter so he proposed a bargain. He said he would forgo the merchant’s debt if he could marry the daughter. Both the merchant and his daughter were horrified by the proposal.

The moneylender told them that he would put a black pebble and a white pebble into an empty bag. The girl would then have to pick one pebble from the bag. If she picked the black pebble, she would become the moneylender’s wife and her father’s debt would be forgiven. If she p icked the white pebble, she need not marry him and her father’s debt would still be forgiven. But if she refused to pick a pebble, her father would be thrown into jail.

They were standing on a pebble-strewn path in the merchant’s garden. As they talked, the moneylender bent over to pick up two pebbles. As he picked them up, the sharp-eyed girl noticed that he had picked up two black pebbles and put them into the bag. He then asked the girl to pick her pebble from the bag.

What would you have done if you were the girl? If you had to advise her, what would you have told her? Careful analysis would produce three possibilities:

1. The girl should refuse to take a pebble.
2. The girl should show that there were two black pebbles in the bag and expose the moneylender as a cheat.
3. The girl should pick a black pebble and sacrifice herself in order to save her father from his debt and imprisonment.

The above story is used with the hope that it will make us appreciate the difference between lateral and logical thinking.

Read on…

The girl put her hand into the moneybag and drew out a pebble. Without looking at it, she fumbled and let it fall onto the pebble-strewn path where it immediately became lost among all the other pebbles.

“Oh, how clumsy of me,” she said. “But never mind, if you look into the bag for the one that is left, you will be able to tell which pebble I picked.”

Since the remaining pebble is black, it must be assumed that she had picked the white one. And since the moneylender dared not admit his dishonesty, the girl changed what seemed an impossible situation into an advantageous one.

MORAL OF THE STORY: Most complex problems do have a solution, sometimes we have to think about them in a different way.
 

Submitted by George Wachirah — Kenya

Have a Great Week!

Scott

Monday Morning Coffee

A Sink Hole in San Diego or Why I Have to be Good at Real Estate

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  Ours was a little slow with only one open house and activity generally slow, Cori and I actually were able to see a movie – Early Grammy betting tip: Salt will not win best picture.  Those of you who have read the last couple of Coffees will remember that I am slooooowwwwlllllyyyyy converting our “spray everything including the side of the house” sprinkler system to a drip system.  Well, it slowed down again this week when I discovered a small sink hole in my back/side yard. 

Now, I am brave enough to try and conserve some water and be more efficient in my application thereof, but when it comes to undermining the integrity of the hardscape in the backyard, I draw the line.   So, I called the gardener in (he is not the same that installed the original system) and fortunately the problem was that the initial contractor did not use much glue at a specific joint and the increased pressure from capping some of the sprinklers caused the joints to slip out.  He quickly fixed it and there should be no more problems…unless there are more joints with insufficient glue. 

Hmm.  I think I will proceed slowly.

Speaking of slowly, how about that real estate market?  This morning, the Census Bureau is set to announce the number of new home sales in June.  When the May number came out is was 30 something percent under last year and increased the worry for a double dip recession.  Well, if you want to sound smart this morning – it’s going to be low again.  So show off at the coffee machine and predict about a 30-35% drop from last year with  the numbers being close to May of this year (the reason is that the tax credit sucked all the demand into the early part of the year).    The residential resale side is really slowing also (at least in San Diego).  Last July, we sold about 2,900 homes throughout the county and last month it was just over 3,000.  Right now, with five workdays to go and sixteen behind us, we have 1,591 closed.  My guess is that we close about 2,350 for the month which would be about a 20% drop from last year .  I expect the homes in escrow will be about the same at the end of the month as last month, indicating the liklihood that August will bel slow also.

With this slowdown, there are some good opportunities for patient investors – and there will be more coming down the line.  I think the end of this year will provide some excellent opportuntites for investors looking for one or two properties in San Diego.  For people buying a home, I don’t think there is a problem buying a home now, as long as you are planning on staying several years.  Yes, the market is going to go down a bit, but if you have found the right house for your family, there is no guarantee it will be there once the market falls a little, and these rates are incredible.

No new listings this week, so time for the Coffee:

A Healthy Life

  by: Jaye Lewis

I’ve never been an athlete. I’ve never been much interested in sports, ever since I stopped playing touch-football with the boys, when I hit puberty. I’ve tried tennis. I hit the ball too high, too long, and way over into left field. I’ve tried softball. Thank goodness that ball is “soft” and big, because it felt just awful when it hit me in the eye. I tried running, but I couldn’t get anyone to chase me.

I tried swimming, but even though I float like a cork, and have had numerous lessons, I can’t seem to get over the idea, that I’m really going to drown. Finally, I settled on walking, and for a number of years, I walked 3 to 5 miles a day. I realize that there is an Olympic sport referred to as “walking,” but when I tried that, all I succeeded in doing was throwing my hip out.

I’m definitely NOT an athlete, but I make do, especially in my “mid-life” years. Which brings a question to my mind. When did I hit mid-life? I remember when I hit thirty. I had to visit a grief counselor, because I knew my life was over. I remember forty. I had to see a grief counselor, the day after my first child graduated from high-school and moved out of the house, because I knew my life was over. I remember forty-four. For some reason I thought my life was over. Then I hit fifty, and I was all excited, because I was able to join an organization called AARP. My husband was, especially, excited because he is younger than I, and he got to join, too!

Fifty became the magic age. I knew that as long as I was in good health, in this day and age, I probably had a good fifty years ahead of me. Then came the asthma. O.K., I had that much earlier, but it only became life threatening after fifty. Then came the firbromyalgia. O.K., I had THAT earlier, but it’s not life threatening. Then came the arthritis, and, more recently, at fifty-five, came the diabetes. Somewhere, along in there, I became very interested in pharmaceuticals, and, finally, one day, I became free.

I began by noticing the sunsets, and I had the time to stop and really wonder, at the beauty and the magnitude of it all. Then I moved onto the sunrises, and I quickly found out that if I wasted the early morning, I missed the loveliest part of the day. Then I began to notice how grateful I was to be able to witness the changing of the seasons. The first whisper of spring; the rustling of the leaves beneath my feet, in the fall; that first breathless covering of a winter’s snow; and in the summer, all the flowers, and the buzzing of a bumblebee.

When illness would hit me, I found that I, actually, enjoyed the solitude. A time to reflect, gather my thoughts, and pray, at leisure. I found that I was “experiencing” this mid-life season, and I was no longer missing every moment, shackled to the chains of worry, and what “might” be. I found that worrying about tomorrow, only served to make me overlook the blessings of today.

It’s not always easy. A few loads of laundry, and a pile of dishes can take an entire day; but then I don’t push myself a lot. So, I forget to make the bed, as I watch the rosy glow of dawn meet the rising sun. I have time to walk our little, wooded acre with my little dachshund straining at the leash. I get to read the “signs,” with my Happy Dog, sniff the air, and gaze out at nowhere, studying the sky, with the same intensity that my little dog studies the ground.

I get to meet the day, every day. I get to say “good-night,” to the sunsets. I’ve studied a lot of sunsets, in the last five years, and I’ve never seen two that were alike. I get to know my Creator as I never have before, and I’ve gotten to make MY mind up, about the mysteries of life; and I have grown certain, that all this was no accident.

I feed the birds, and I take great delight in their multicolored hues, especially in the spring. I drag a chair to stand on, so that I can fill the feeders to the brim, myself. I say a little prayer, as I wobble, a little cock-eyed on the chair, and I laugh, at myself, and all the pretensions of my younger life. I take great delight in my life. I thank God for all the precious little things of every day. Friends. Family. Neighbors. And health. A health of the soul. For I have come to understand what real health is, and when you have REAL health, then you truly have everything.

Have a Great Week!

Scott

Monday Morning Coffee

Battle with the Drip System  (or why I should stick to Real Estate)

Good morning,

I hope you had a nice weekend.  It’s been nice to have the sun come back out the last week – although it feels like it is trying to make up for lost time.   In the further mis-adventures of Scott and the drip system, it seems like there was a bit too much pressure and on Wednesday morning while James, the pool guy, was cleaning the pool and I was about to jump in the shower there was a loud “pop” as one of the valves failed.  James almost ended up in the pool (it sounded like a gun shot) and pieces of the valve ended up in opposite directions 30 feet from where they were supposed to be – and I ended up at Home Depot again.

On the real estate side, things continue to slow down.  In July of 2009, we closed over 2,800 homes in San Diego County.  So far this month (11 of the 21 business days completed) we have closed 1,008.  The number in escrow is also down, from over 7,000 to just over 5,200 this year.  Call volume is also down significantly just when it should be picking up for the summer.  I am more solidly in the camp of – another dip in real estate and just hoping it bounces back early next year.  This could be great for investors as rates remain low the forth quarter could bring some great opportunities.

We don’t have any new listings this week, so let’s skip straight to the coffee -

Lessons Learned

Author Unknown

Have a Great Week!

Scott

Monday Morning Coffee
Real Estate Slowdown Ahead

Good morning,
I hope you had a great weekend – and for those of you who extended the 4th of July weekend into a weeks vacation – congratulations. Now, get back to work:-)

The market has definitely slowed, which has allowed me to get to a couple of projects around the house. We had planted a few vegetables and we have a spaghetti squash and butternut squash plants that have taken over the side yard and are about to try and break into the house. This made me finally tackle the sprinkler system in the yard – trying to convert it to a drip so I stop wattering the house and patio. Of course, only when I got to Home Depot did I realize that I did not even know how much I did not know about what I was trying to do. Four trips back and forth and eight sprinklers (about 40 to go) have been transitioned to drip or capped off – and only three of them leak.

But I digress from the main point, and that is that the only reason I have time to do this is the market has slowed down. Two weeks ago (I took last Monday off too) I said that things felt like they were slowing down. In July of 2009, we sold over 2800 homes. So far, 6 business days into a 21 day month, we have 475 sold. Now, the homes in escrow have increased by 300 so far this month, which might indicate that closings will ramp up at the end of the month, but I still think we could be down by about 20-25%. I hope I am wrong, but it sure feels slow out there. It is moving to a buyers’ market and I think now is the wrong time to try and squeeze every last dollar out of your home if you are selling. The risk/reward of holding out over the summer is not in the sellers favor right now.

That said, we have three great listings to tell you about – should have been four, but we bucked the trend and sold one of them last week:

3 bed townhome in 4S Ranch. This home is in the Gianni complex on the north side of 4S Ranch and is impeccably updated. Walking distance to Monterey Ridge, the Gianni complex is very popular for young families with elementary aged children. The home is priced at $429k.

South 4S Ranch View Home – This is one of two homes we have on Lone Bluff Way. This home is 4 beds, 3 1/2 baths, almost 2,900sf and a great view of Black Mountain. The yard is big enough for a pool. It is priced at $720k and we have 2 offers in. It will likely be gone by Monday evening. So if you are interested, let us know ASAP.

4 bed with loft – This is the other home available on Lone Bluff Way. It has a bedroom dowstairs as well as 3 beds and a large loft upstairs. It is over 3,200 sf of living space on a great cul-d-sac on the south side of 4S Ranch. Asking price is $745k.

That’s it for this week. Enjoy the Coffee (and tell all your friends to help the market and buy a house!)

This week’s edition comes because of those darn books you read to 4 year olds. You know, the ones you can’t get out of your head. Interestingly, there is sometimes more to learn from children’s books than from “adult” books. So, here is some wisdom from Theodore Geisel:

• A person’s a person, no matter how small.
• You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself, any direction you choose.
• Don’t cry because it’s over. Smile because it happened.
• Today is your day! Your mountain is waiting. So… get on your way.
• If you never did, you should. These things are fun, and fun is good.
• And will you succeed? Yes indeed, yes indeed! Ninety-eight and three-quarters percent guaranteed.
• Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.
• All alone! Whether you like it or not, alone is something you’ll be quite a lot.
• The more that you read, the more things you will know. The more that you learn, the more places you’ll go.
• Today was good. Today was fun. Tomorrow is another one.
• Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It’s not.
• I’m afraid sometimes you’ll play lonely games too, games you can’t win because you’ll play against you
• I’m sorry to say so but, sadly it’s true that bang-ups and hang-ups can happen to you
• I know up on the top you are seeing great sights, but down at the bottom we, too, should have rights.

By Theodore Geisel (aka Dr. Seuss).

Cmon, I can’t be serious every week,

Scott Voak

San Diego Home Inventory Rises – Sales Fall

*Note that this data is from the SANDICOR MLS as of July 5, 2009 and does not include homes sold by builders that were not sold through the MLS (New Construction) nor homes sold at Trustee Sale (Foreclosures).

Current numbers shown for June 2010 San Diego Home Sales indicate both a rise in supply and a drop in demand.  The combined affect is an increase inventory (as measured by months required to sell the existing homes for sale at the sales rate of the past year) of 19% over 12 months ago (although at 4.3 months, it is still not at a level that can be considered high).  The specific numbers are:

• There were 3,004 homes sold in June of 2010 as compared to 3,288 a year ago and 3,219 in May of 2010.
  • After last month’s drop in homes that were in escrow, this was to be expected.  Although, it is still dissappointing in that we all hoped the tax credit would help keep demand going through June.
• At the end of the month there were 12,175 homes on the market as opposed to 9,443 a year ago and 11,257 at the end of May, 2010.
  • This was caused by a combination of fewer homes going into escrow (lower demand) and the normal increase in inventory we see over the summer.  Both are expected as the tax credit expiring removed the urgency to purchase for a lot of first time home buyers (similar to when Cash for Clunkers expired for cars, we will likely see an extended period of below average demand for houses now that the tax credit has expired).
• Homes in escrow dropped to 4,961 from 6,862 a year ago and 5,546 in May of 2010. 
  • In the last two  months, the number of homes in escrow has dropped 23%, which points to continued slowness.
• Homes that are “Contingent” fell by 5% in June.  This is  a designation most commonly used for short sale homes that are awaiting bank approval of an offer and might mean that the banks are in fact getting better an processing short sales in a timely fashion.

Monday Morning Coffee

May Home Sales

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  Mine is rapidly coming to a close and there is still much to do, so this will be short this week.

Now that most of the reporting is done for May, the numbers are a little clearer for San Diego County. 

• There were over 3200 homes sold in May which was up 11% over 2009 and 10% over April.  This was to be expected as first time home buyers pushed out April closings to May to take advantage of the state tax credit.
• The number of homes in escrow at the end of the month fell to just over 5500, a 26% drop over 2009 and a 14$ drop over the end of April.  Once again, this was expected as the federal tax credit pulled a lot of demand forward, and now that it has expired, the demand will be less than it otherwise would have been through the summer.
• Inventory as measured by homes that are: Listed for sale, shown as Contingent or Pending, divided by the last 12 months sales increased by 8% over last year to 7.5 months – the first increase since September of 2008.  If measured using only the “Active” listings, inventory still sits at 4 months, which is even with last year.

Ok, so much for the quick analysis.  We have one new listing this week.  It is a short sale condo and as such the photos are not as good as they could be, but it is a great opportunity to look at a 2 bedroom starter condo for under $300k. This home went on the market last week with first showings at the open house Sunday.  We already have one offer, so if you are interested, please let me know asap.

That’s it, nice and short this week.  Enjoy the Coffee – this week, in honor of our graduates, an excerpt that supposedly came from a Bill Gates graduation speech.

On the rules of life for graduates.
RULE 1.

Life is not fair; get used to it.

RULE 2.

The world won’t care about your self-esteem. The world will expect you
to accomplish something BEFORE you feel good about yourself.

RULE 3.

You will NOT make 40 thousand dollars a year right out of high school OR
college. You won’t be a vice-president with a car phone, until you earn
both.

RULE 4.

If you think your teacher is tough, wait until you get a boss. He
doesn’t have tenure.

RULE 5.

Flipping burgers is not beneath your dignity. Your grandparents had a
different word for burger flipping; they called it opportunity.

RULE 6.

If you mess up, it’s not your parents’ fault, so don’t whine about your
mistakes, learn from them.

RULE 7.

Before you were born, your parents weren’t as boring as they are now.
They got that way from paying your bills, cleaning your clothes and
listening to you talk about how cool you are. So before you save the
rain forest from the parasites of your parents’ generation, try
“delousing” the closet in your own room.

RULE 8.

Your school may have done away with winners and losers, but life has
not. In some schools they have abolished failing grades; they’ll give
you as many times as you want to get the right answer. This doesn’t bear
the slightest resemblance to ANYTHING in real life.

RULE 9.

Life is not divided into semesters. You don’t get summers off and very
few employers are interested in helping you find yourself. Do that on
your own time.

RULE 10.

Television is NOT real life. In real life people actually have to leave
the coffee shop and go to jobs.

RULE 11.

Be nice to nerds. Chances are you’ll end up working for one.

 Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189

Monday Morning Coffee

Memorial Day Tribute

Good Morning,

I hope you had a nice Memorial Day.  This is running a day late as, well – it was a holiday.  Although the month is not officially over yet, a quick peek at the sales numbers for May showed some of the expected results, but also some that were not expected:

• There are 11,257 homes currently on the market.  This is 10% more than at this time last year and is the first time in 24 months that inventory has grown.
• The number of closed homes is slightly behind last May, but I expect that to change as the reporting closes out this week.  The surprise here is that that number was expected to be higher than last year due to the expiring tax credit and the fact that some people pushed their April closings into May to take advantage of the State tax credit. 
• The number of homes in escrow fell significantly.  Down 21% from last year and 8% from just last month.  This combined with the lower than expected closings in May is a little worrisome for sales moving forward.

Next week I will take another look at the numbers as reporting should be finished and they will be a little more solid.

Also next week, I will have one or two new condo listings for you.  We just need to get them all pretty for pictures.

That’s it, enjoy the Memorial Day Coffee.  I checked it out and it has been verified as true – I hope you stopped for a moment yesterday to give thanks to those for whom we were celebrating.

 Diary Of A Last and Final Flight Home

February 17, 2007,
0350
I was at curbside at 24th and M, Washington DC . 16 Degrees with a light breeze. Going home after my second week of freezing temps to my warm home in SoCal. Take a walk on the beach, ride a horse, climb a mountain and get back to living. I’m tired of the cold.

0425
paying the taxi fare at Dulles in front of the United Airlines counter, still cold.

0450
engaged the self-serve ticker machine and it delivers my ticket, baggage tag and boarding pass. Hmmm, that Marine over there is all dressed up in his dress blues a bit early this morning… “Good Morning Captain, you’re looking sharp.” He says, “Thank you, sir.”

Pass Security and to my gate for a decaf coffee and 5 hours sleep. A quick check of the flight status monitor and UA Flt 211 is on time. I’m up front, so how bad can that be? Hmmm, there’s that same Marine. He must be heading to Pendleton to see his lady at LAX for the long weekend, all dressed up like that. Or maybe not. I dunno.

The speaker system announces “Attention in the boarding area, we’ll begin boarding in 10 minutes, we have some additional duties to attend to this morning, but we’ll have you out of here on time.”

The Marine Captain has now been joined by five others. BINGO, I get it, he’s not visiting his lady, he’s an official escort. I remember doing that once, CACO duty. I still remember the names of the victim and family, The Bruno Family in Mojave – all of them, wows, that was 24 years ago.

On board, 0600:
“Good morning folks, this is the Captain. This morning we’ve been attending to some additional duties, and I apologize for being 10 minutes late for push back, but I believe we’ll be early into LAX. This morning it is my sad pleasure to announce that 1st LT Jared Landaker, USMC will be flying with us to his Big Bear home in Southern California. Jared lost his life over the skies of Iraq earlier this month, and today we have the honor of returning him home along with his mother, father and brother . Please join me in making the journey comfortable for the Landaker family and their uniformed escort. Now sit back and enjoy your ride. We’re not expecting any turbulence until we reach the Rocky Mountain area, but we’ll do what we can to ensure a smooth ride. For those interested, you can listen in to our progre ss on Channel 9.”

Click Channel 9: “Good morning UA 211. You are cleared to taxi, takeoff and cleared to LAX as filed.”

4 hours and 35 minutes later over Big Bear MT, the AB320 makes a left roll, a steep bank and then one to the right-Nice touch. Nice tribute. Five minutes out from landing, the Captain comes on the speaker: “Ladies and Gents, after landing I’m leaving the fasten seatbelt sign on, and I ask everyone to please yield to the Landaker family. Please remain seated until all members of the family have departed the aircraft. Thank you for your patience. We are 20 minutes early.”

On roll out, I notice red lights, emergency vehicles approaching. We’re being escorted directly to our gate, no waiting, not even a pause. Out the left window, a dozen Marines in full dress blues. A true class act by everyone, down to a person. Way to go United Airlines for doing things RIGHT, Air Traffic Control for getting the message, and to all security personnel for your display of brotherhood.

When the family departed the aircraft everyone sat silent, then I heard a lady say,”God Bless you and your family, and thank you.” Then a somber round of applause. The Captain read a prepared note from Mrs. Landaker to the effect, “Thank you all for your patience and heartfelt concern for us and our son. We sincerely appreciate the sentiment. It’s good to have Jared home.”

After departing the a/c I found myself along with 30 others from our flight looking out the lobby window back at the plane. Not a dry eye. It was one of the most emotional moments I’ve ever experienced. We all stood there silently, and watched as Jared was taken by his honor guard to an awaiting hearse. Then the motorcade slowly made it’s way off the ramp.

I realized I had finally seen the silent majority. It is deep within us all. Black, Brown, White, Yellow, Red, Purple, we’re all children, parents, brothers, sisters, etc – we are an American family.

Official Report: February 7, 2007, Anbar Province, Iraq .. 1st LT Jared Landaker United States Marine Corps, from Big Bear California, gave his live in service to his country. Fatally wounded when his CH-46 helicopter was shot down by enemy fire. Jared and his crew all perished. His life was the ultimate sacrifice of a grateful military family and nation.

His death occurred at the same time as Anna Nicole Smith, a drug using person with a 7th grade education of no pedigree who dominated our news for two weeks while Jared became a number on CNN. And most unfortunately, Jared’s death underscores a fact that we are a military at war, not a nation at war. It has been said that Marines are at war. America is at the mall.

1st LT Landaker, a man I came to know in the sky’s over America on 17 February 2007, from me to you, aviator to aviator, I am unbelievably humbled. It was my high honor to share your last flight. God bless you.

Semper Fi

Stuart Witte

Have a Great Week – because you can,

Scott Voak