Monday Morning Coffee

New Listings Plus Home Sales Data out Tomorrow

Good morning,

I hope you had a nice weekend.  Mine was interupted by something called the Security Tool virus.  A bundle of joy that took 5 hours to fix (of course, I didn’t fix it – luckly, I have a client who is much more familiar with network security who spent a good part of his weekend fixing it.  Thanks Marc!)  I did find time to work with Cori and make our first ever batch of jam from our tree (golden nectarines).  The good news is it tastes good and the jars sealed.  The bad news is it didn’t jell, so we have lots of golden nectarine sorta jelly runny stuff.  Oh well.

This week, the big real estate news will come on Tuesday when the National Association of Realtors announces the Existing Home Sales for July.  Last month was off a bit as the affect of the tax credit started to appear.  This month, I expect it to be off a lot.  The “experts” are predicting a rate of 4.65M annual sales (June was 5.27M).  I think that the number will be closer to 4.0M – in which case the stock market will probably react negatively as a number that low could be seen as a strong indicator of a double dip in housing.

We do have two new listings this week, but they aren’t the two I thought we would have (there is also a home that fell out of escrow:

• A 2 bedroom condo in Point Loma.  This home will be vacant in a couple of weeks and I will get photos and more information to you then.  We have not priced it yet as a lot can change by the time we get ready to go on the market.
• A 3 bedroom home in Sabre Springs with open space behind it.  This is on a sought after street and will be a great home.  We are going to need to paint it and do a few touch ups, but it is a relocation, so it may take a week or two to get going.
• The home we had fall out of escrow is  a short sale on the north side of 4S Ranch.  It is a 4 bedroom homes with almost 3,500 sf of living space.  The approved price for the short sale is $700k with a credit to the buyer.  It fell out of escrow – this is a good one – because the family buying it lives in China and the wife can’t get to the consulate in Beijing to sign documents and won’t be in the US for a couple of months (arrghhhh!)

That’s it for this week.  Enjoy the Coffee!

Time

Time is an equal opportunity employer. Each human being has exactly the same number of hours and minutes every day.

Rich people can’t buy more time. Scientists can’t invent new minutes. And you can’t save time to spend on another day.

Even so, time is amazingly fair and forgiving. No matter how much time you’ve wasted in the past, you still have an entire tomorrow.

Success depends upon using it wisely – - by planning and setting priorities. Time is worth more than money, and by killing time, we are killing our own chances of success.

Author Unknown.

Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

Good morning,

I hope you enjoyed the weekend.  It was a nice mix of work and play (although if you had told me 30 years ago I would have call working in the yard “play”, and I think I would have told you you were nuts – right Dad?)  We started thinning out our spaghetti squash and I weighed a couple of them and realized that one plant was giving us about 75lbs of squash, which is about $110 worth of food from one seed.  I thought this was pretty cool until I realized we have to eat another 55lbs of squash to get this benefit.  Why can’t they make steak plants?

I took a look at some new data on mortgages and foreclosures from Fannie, Freddie and FHA.  I posted the information (which came from CalculatedRiskBlog.com) on the site yesterday, so I won’t bore you here.

Although the market is slow, we are continuing to receive offers, and are actually having some success getting a few into escrow.  I should have 2 small, detached condos in the 4S area to tell you about next week (although photos will be a week later).

That’s it, enjoy the coffee!

Birds And The Wisdom They Impart

by Elisabeth Folino

 
This morning, listening to the birds greet a beautiful sunny winter’s morning, it occurred to me that rain or shine the birds always greet the mornings in exactly the same way. They always start it singing with all their might, greeting the day with their beautiful songs and just getting on with the business of living life fully. One can learn so much by watching them.

I like to feed the birds on my balcony; I live in an apartment and can’t have any pets as it is against the rules. I mainly get sparrows and speckled turtledoves, a couple of pigeons and in summer, I get regular visits from rainbow lorikeets. All are fun to watch and all bring joy to my heart. Watching them is relaxing and a form of meditation for me.

The other day, one of the pigeons had got himself stuck in my balcony railing. I thought he was dead. It made me so sad and then, when I went outside, it started to struggle. My heart was filled with joy; it was not dead just exhausted from the effort of trying to free himself.

As I approached the bird, he got more frantic so I soothingly told him not to struggle. He froze, perhaps in fear. I like to think that he could feel the vibration of my not wanting to harm him. I gently placed my hand under him (he was so light) and I lifted him up to set him free. He flew up to the roof of my flat and watched as I put the usual seeds out. Low and behold, after his ordeal, he came right back down to my balcony and ate his breakfast with the rest of the birds.

Why am I sharing all this? Well, for one, it was amazing to actually hold a wild pigeon in my hands even if it was for just one second and I just had to share, but I also could not resist sharing the lesson that this situation brought my way.

Life is full of obstacles; some very real, like the bars holding the pigeon back, and some are imagined but we struggle against them till we are exhausted. Sometimes the answer is with a friend. All it takes is a little lift, a little guidance in the right direction and away we go, free again to soar just like my little feathered friend.

The biggest lesson however, from all this, is how my little feathered friend recovered from the situation. He didn’t sit on the roof looking down at the evil balcony that had tried to trap him; he didn’t relive the frightening situation over and over again. Nope! Down he came to eat his breakfast and live the life he was meant to live.

We can learn so much from birds. They truly know how to live in the now. I believe the lesson here is that sometimes life is hard and we get stuck but often help, in the form of a friend, can set us to set us free. Remaining free, however, is up to us.

Another thing that I have noticed is that while feeding, some of the birds are rather aggressive and tend to chase away the others trying to keep all the seeds to themselves. The funny part is that they can’t chase all of them away and that while they are so busy chasing the others away, they are missing out.

How often do we do that in life? Instead of just getting on with a job, we watch and criticize others only to find that while we have been busy trying to assert ourselves and prove how good we are, that all of a sudden a quiet achiever has managed to do the job and reap the rewards we were so trying to reap.

Isn’t it amazing how so many life lessons can be found just by observing nature’s creatures!

Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

Monday Morning Coffee

OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report for Q1, 2010

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  Ours was a nice, quiet one with nothing remarkable – which seems in itself, remarkable. 

Every quarter, I have gone through the report from the Treasury department on the mortgage market called OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report.  The report usually comes out about a quarter after the data it is reporting as it takes awhile to compile it.  I have to confess, that I received the report in early July, but did not look at it until last week.  I am not going to go into as much depth as I usually do because the report was mostly more of the same, but here are a few highlights and lowlights:

• Delinquency rates dropped during the first quarter on all loan types (Yea!)
• The number of foreclosures increased substantially (Boo!)
• Modifications and other retention actions also increased (Yea!)
• Re-default rates for modified mortgages remains high (over 50% are 60+ days late after 12 months) (Boo!)

The last detail I took out of the report has the potential to be good news.  Modifications done in the last 3 quarters have had a lower re-default rate than those done previously.  This is because lenders are working harder to create a significant difference in payments when loans are modified now than in the past.  However, the difference in the re-default rate gets less and less the farther out from the modification date.  In other words, it is possible, that the new modifications are only delaying the re-defaults and not eliminating them.  We won’t know for sure for another couple of quarters, but at least there’s a possibility the efforts might be succcessful.

We don’t have any new listings this week, but are working on a smaller detached home in 4S for next week.

That’s it, enjoy the Coffee!

This week, the Coffee is not a motiviational or inspirational story, I am venturing out on a limb.  I read something a couple of weeks ago that really made me angry.  I try and walk a fairly neutral political line as I have friends and family who are both on the far right and the far left.  I tend to sit in the camp that distrusts most politicians from all parties.  I definitely am in the group that doesn’t care for large political action commities or lobbies (yes, I am aware I am a Realtor and we have one of the strongest of all – that doesn’t mean I think it’s right).  This particular story is a prime example of one lobby putting its members above the children they are supposed to help.  It may be old news to many of you, but for the life of me, two weeks after first reading it, I still don’t get it.

The education debacle of the decade

By Bob Ewing | Published: 3:30 PM 07/06/2010

Dr. Patrick Wolf spoke to a packed audience in the Capitol Visitors Center last Monday.

The seats were full and people stood all along the edges of the room, even spilling out into the hallway.  We all came to hear him explain his latest research on the tiny education program that has caused a national uproar—arousing so much passion that African-American leaders from around the country recently gathered downtown to engage in an act of civil disobedience.

The Department of Education commissioned Wolf to conduct a series of detailed studies on the results of the Washington DC Opportunity Scholarship Program (OSP).  Established in 2004 as a five-year pilot program, OSP is among the most heavily researched federal education programs in history.

OSP targeted about 2,000 of the poorest kids in DC who were stuck in some of the worst schools in the country.  It gave their parents a $7,500 scholarship to attend a private school of their choice.

The response was immediate.  Four applications were filled out for every slot available.    Parents loved the program, considering it a lifeline for their children, a way to escape failing schools and enter safe, functional schools.

Everyone knew OSP would be a bargain.  DC has among the highest spending per pupil in the nation.  At a conservative estimate of $17,542, the public schools spend over $10,000 more per child than the $7,500 spent through the scholarship program.

But would OSP achieve measureable results?

The answer is a resounding yes.  Previous studies by Wolf showed an improvement in academic performance, to the point that a student participating in OSP from kindergarten through high school would likely be 2 ½ years ahead in reading.  The key finding in this final round of research, Wolf told us, was the graduation rates.   OSP dramatically increases prospects of high-school graduation.

Wolf pointed to research showing that high-school diplomas significantly improve the chance of getting a job.  And dropouts that do find employment earn about $8,500 less per year than their counterpoints with diplomas. Further, each graduate reduces the cost of crime by a stunning $112,000.  Cecelia Rouse, an economic advisor to President Obama, found that each additional high school graduate saves the country $260,000.

Simply put, OSP has a profoundly positive effect not just on students, but on the city and the country as a whole.

So when it came time for Congress to reauthorize OSP, it would seem to be a no-brainer:  Expand the program.

Instead, they killed it.

Buried deep inside a 1000+ page, half-trillion-dollar spending bill was a provision that prohibited any new students from entering the program.  To top it off, the 216 new students added to OSP for the new academic year were pulled out by Education Secretary Arne Duncan just before the school year started.

Why did this happen?  According to former DC Mayor Anthony Williams and former DC Councilman Kevin Chavous (both Democrats), the answer is politics at its worst.

Williams and Chavous co-authored an op-ed arguing that politicians opposing OSP “are largely fueled by special-interest groups that are more dedicated to the adults working in the education system than to making certain every child is properly educated.”

The editorial board of the Washington Post put it a little more bluntly:

It’s clear, though, from how the destruction of the [OSP] program is being orchestrated, that issues such as parents’ needs, student performance and program effectiveness don’t matter next to the political demands of teachers’ unions.

The Post board also wrote that “the debate unfolding on Capitol Hill isn’t about facts.  It’s about politics and the stranglehold the teachers unions have on the Democratic Party.”

As it turns out, the teachers unions are the single largest contributor to federally elected politicians, with the vast majority of their funds going to Democrats.  The teachers unions don’t like programs like OSP because when parents have the freedom to choose, they may choose schools that don’t have unionized teachers.

DC Congresswoman Eleanor Holmes Norton was one of the principal opponents of OSP and was instrumental in ending the program.   Guess who her largest donor is?  (American Federation of Teachers.)

The three main critiques of OSP are that it takes money away from the public schools, is not accountable and does not provide a cure-all solution to improving education.  None of these critiques has merit.

First, OSP takes no money away from public schools.  By stark contrast, it pumps millions of dollars into the public schools. OSP is funded with new federal money as part of a plan that allocates matching funding directly to the public schools.  So for every dollar that goes to OSP, the public schools get an extra dollar.

Plus, the public schools get to keep all the money saved through OSP.  This means that in addition to the matching funds, the public schools receive over $10,000 for every child in OSP—children that the public schools do not have to educate.  Also worth noting, the Education Secretary has a $159 billion budget with billions going to education programs that are unproven.

Second, OSP is truly accountable.  Parents care about the welfare of their individual children more than any politician or bureaucrat. The parents are overjoyed with the program, unlike their prior dissatisfaction with the DC public schools they are desperate to escape.

Third, DC kids need help right now and OSP provides it.  Systemic reform takes time, and while we all should support and applaud recent efforts to reform the public schools, it will be years before they perform as well as the private schools that the OSP students attend, if they ever do.  That is, children in school today need help today.  They cannot wait for years or decades for reform to hopefully come.  

To his credit, Education Secretary Arne Duncan acknowledged that the OSP students are “safe and learning and doing well.” He argued, “We can’t be satisfied with saving 1 or 2 percent of children and letting 98 or 99 percent down.”
The obvious answer would seem to be to expand OSP and “save” more kids, not shut it down and force 100 percent of DC students to be “let down.”

When Congress killed OSP, there was a national backlash.  Editorials in papers across the country denounced the decision.  Thousands of kids from several states rallied on Capitol Hill to save the program.  Black leaders gathered in an act of civil disobedience before the front doors of the Department of Education.  They pointed out that just about half of African-American and Latino students are graduating from high school today and the OSP students are almost completely African-American and Latino.

Even the DC public-school chancellor supported OSP and told Congress that the public schools would likely not be able to reabsorb the students and give them the same quality education.  The DC City Council went so far as to petition Arne Duncan to reverse his decision.

Duncan understands the importance of school choice.  He famously said that “my family has given up so much so that I could have the opportunity to serve; I didn’t want to try to save the country’s children and our educational system and jeopardize my own children’s education.”  So he chose to send his kids to public schools in Virginia rather than DC.

In fact, 38 percent of Congress chooses to send their kids to private schools.  That’s four times the national average.  A vote in the Senate to save OSP was defeated 58-39.  If only the Senators who exercise school choice themselves had voted in favor of OSP, the program would have been saved.

And so OSP will end.  Thankfully, the students currently enrolled will be able to continue through to graduation.  But with no new students allowed in the program, it will die through attrition.

I’ve had the pleasure of working with the OSP parents and kids for the last four years. And I’ve come to know many of them personally, and experience firsthand their reaction to the heartbreaking news.

Latasha Bennett’s son, for example, attends an excellent school on a scholarship and he’s doing great.  Her daughter was going to attend  kindergarten at the same school, thanks to OSP.  And then Latasha got the letter from Arne Duncan stating that her daughter was being forced to leave the program.  Her son was safe, but her daughter was one of the 216.  Latasha cannot afford the school’s tuition and the charter schools were all filled up by the time Duncan’s rejection letter showed up.  So her daughter had no option but to attend the local public school, which has two-thirds of its students failing to meet basic benchmarks in math and reading.

In fact, 90 percent of the 216 kids shut out of OSP were reassigned to failing public schools.

It’s too late to save OSP.  But thankfully, elsewhere the tide is turning.  Two weeks ago a bi-partisan school choice bill was signed into law in Louisiana.  It comes on the heels of a similar program in Oklahoma and is the nation’s 20th school choice program.

People will continue to have intelligent and respectful debates about school choice and education reform.  And whether we are liberal, conservative, libertarian or independent, we can all agree that special interest groups should not be able to force politicians to kill cost-effective programs that work.

It boils down to this:  Parents deserve the freedom to choose the schools that best meet their needs.  And every child, regardless of background, deserves a quality education.  We should not dash their hopes and their futures to appease the politically powerful.

________________________

I wish I could send you in a direction to protest or that I had a great plan.  But, I am dumbfounded.  I don’t get it.  A teachers’ union did this to kids?  Maybe there’s another side to this story, but after 2 weeks, I have not seen it.

Have a great week,

Scott

Monday Morning Coffee

July Sales Numbers for San Diego

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  It’s getting late, so this is going to be quick (and no, I did not destroy anymore of my rear yard installing the drip system this week). 

 July numbers for San Diego home sales were low, as expected.  However, I had made a mistake in not updating my numbers for July 2009 (agents take awhile to change escrows into sales and I had not updated my numbers in mid August of last year).  So, instead of 2900 homes sold last July, there were 3,424 sold in San Diego.  Against that number, July 2010 looks pretty sad.  Total sales for July of this year were 2,342 (this will probably increase by about 200-300 as agents finish reporting).  Still, that’s off 32% from last year and I am hoping that we end up less than 25% down by the time the dust settles. 

 Active listings increased from 9,372 last year to 12,840 at the end of July.  This is up about 650 from June – most of the increase due to a lower sales rate rather than an increase in listings.

 I will do a blog post that breaks it into much more detail later, but as I said, it’s getting late!

 No new homes for sale this week, but we do have a rental coming up.  If you know someone looking in the 4S Ranch area, we have a 3 bedroom condo with a view in Sitella available almost immediately.  I will be taking photos Monday morning and it should be online by the afternoon.  Please get ahold of me if you are interested.

 That’s it, enjoy the coffee! 

 Thinking “Out Of The Bag”

Many hundreds of years ago in a small Italian town, a merchant had the misfortune of owing a large sum of money to the moneylender. The moneylender, who was old and ugly, fancied the merchant’s beautiful daughter so he proposed a bargain. He said he would forgo the merchant’s debt if he could marry the daughter. Both the merchant and his daughter were horrified by the proposal.

The moneylender told them that he would put a black pebble and a white pebble into an empty bag. The girl would then have to pick one pebble from the bag. If she picked the black pebble, she would become the moneylender’s wife and her father’s debt would be forgiven. If she p icked the white pebble, she need not marry him and her father’s debt would still be forgiven. But if she refused to pick a pebble, her father would be thrown into jail.

They were standing on a pebble-strewn path in the merchant’s garden. As they talked, the moneylender bent over to pick up two pebbles. As he picked them up, the sharp-eyed girl noticed that he had picked up two black pebbles and put them into the bag. He then asked the girl to pick her pebble from the bag.

What would you have done if you were the girl? If you had to advise her, what would you have told her? Careful analysis would produce three possibilities:

1. The girl should refuse to take a pebble.
2. The girl should show that there were two black pebbles in the bag and expose the moneylender as a cheat.
3. The girl should pick a black pebble and sacrifice herself in order to save her father from his debt and imprisonment.

The above story is used with the hope that it will make us appreciate the difference between lateral and logical thinking.

Read on…

The girl put her hand into the moneybag and drew out a pebble. Without looking at it, she fumbled and let it fall onto the pebble-strewn path where it immediately became lost among all the other pebbles.

“Oh, how clumsy of me,” she said. “But never mind, if you look into the bag for the one that is left, you will be able to tell which pebble I picked.”

Since the remaining pebble is black, it must be assumed that she had picked the white one. And since the moneylender dared not admit his dishonesty, the girl changed what seemed an impossible situation into an advantageous one.

MORAL OF THE STORY: Most complex problems do have a solution, sometimes we have to think about them in a different way.
 

Submitted by George Wachirah — Kenya

Have a Great Week!

Scott

Monday Morning Coffee

A Sink Hole in San Diego or Why I Have to be Good at Real Estate

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  Ours was a little slow with only one open house and activity generally slow, Cori and I actually were able to see a movie – Early Grammy betting tip: Salt will not win best picture.  Those of you who have read the last couple of Coffees will remember that I am slooooowwwwlllllyyyyy converting our “spray everything including the side of the house” sprinkler system to a drip system.  Well, it slowed down again this week when I discovered a small sink hole in my back/side yard. 

Now, I am brave enough to try and conserve some water and be more efficient in my application thereof, but when it comes to undermining the integrity of the hardscape in the backyard, I draw the line.   So, I called the gardener in (he is not the same that installed the original system) and fortunately the problem was that the initial contractor did not use much glue at a specific joint and the increased pressure from capping some of the sprinklers caused the joints to slip out.  He quickly fixed it and there should be no more problems…unless there are more joints with insufficient glue. 

Hmm.  I think I will proceed slowly.

Speaking of slowly, how about that real estate market?  This morning, the Census Bureau is set to announce the number of new home sales in June.  When the May number came out is was 30 something percent under last year and increased the worry for a double dip recession.  Well, if you want to sound smart this morning – it’s going to be low again.  So show off at the coffee machine and predict about a 30-35% drop from last year with  the numbers being close to May of this year (the reason is that the tax credit sucked all the demand into the early part of the year).    The residential resale side is really slowing also (at least in San Diego).  Last July, we sold about 2,900 homes throughout the county and last month it was just over 3,000.  Right now, with five workdays to go and sixteen behind us, we have 1,591 closed.  My guess is that we close about 2,350 for the month which would be about a 20% drop from last year .  I expect the homes in escrow will be about the same at the end of the month as last month, indicating the liklihood that August will bel slow also.

With this slowdown, there are some good opportunities for patient investors – and there will be more coming down the line.  I think the end of this year will provide some excellent opportuntites for investors looking for one or two properties in San Diego.  For people buying a home, I don’t think there is a problem buying a home now, as long as you are planning on staying several years.  Yes, the market is going to go down a bit, but if you have found the right house for your family, there is no guarantee it will be there once the market falls a little, and these rates are incredible.

No new listings this week, so time for the Coffee:

A Healthy Life

  by: Jaye Lewis

I’ve never been an athlete. I’ve never been much interested in sports, ever since I stopped playing touch-football with the boys, when I hit puberty. I’ve tried tennis. I hit the ball too high, too long, and way over into left field. I’ve tried softball. Thank goodness that ball is “soft” and big, because it felt just awful when it hit me in the eye. I tried running, but I couldn’t get anyone to chase me.

I tried swimming, but even though I float like a cork, and have had numerous lessons, I can’t seem to get over the idea, that I’m really going to drown. Finally, I settled on walking, and for a number of years, I walked 3 to 5 miles a day. I realize that there is an Olympic sport referred to as “walking,” but when I tried that, all I succeeded in doing was throwing my hip out.

I’m definitely NOT an athlete, but I make do, especially in my “mid-life” years. Which brings a question to my mind. When did I hit mid-life? I remember when I hit thirty. I had to visit a grief counselor, because I knew my life was over. I remember forty. I had to see a grief counselor, the day after my first child graduated from high-school and moved out of the house, because I knew my life was over. I remember forty-four. For some reason I thought my life was over. Then I hit fifty, and I was all excited, because I was able to join an organization called AARP. My husband was, especially, excited because he is younger than I, and he got to join, too!

Fifty became the magic age. I knew that as long as I was in good health, in this day and age, I probably had a good fifty years ahead of me. Then came the asthma. O.K., I had that much earlier, but it only became life threatening after fifty. Then came the firbromyalgia. O.K., I had THAT earlier, but it’s not life threatening. Then came the arthritis, and, more recently, at fifty-five, came the diabetes. Somewhere, along in there, I became very interested in pharmaceuticals, and, finally, one day, I became free.

I began by noticing the sunsets, and I had the time to stop and really wonder, at the beauty and the magnitude of it all. Then I moved onto the sunrises, and I quickly found out that if I wasted the early morning, I missed the loveliest part of the day. Then I began to notice how grateful I was to be able to witness the changing of the seasons. The first whisper of spring; the rustling of the leaves beneath my feet, in the fall; that first breathless covering of a winter’s snow; and in the summer, all the flowers, and the buzzing of a bumblebee.

When illness would hit me, I found that I, actually, enjoyed the solitude. A time to reflect, gather my thoughts, and pray, at leisure. I found that I was “experiencing” this mid-life season, and I was no longer missing every moment, shackled to the chains of worry, and what “might” be. I found that worrying about tomorrow, only served to make me overlook the blessings of today.

It’s not always easy. A few loads of laundry, and a pile of dishes can take an entire day; but then I don’t push myself a lot. So, I forget to make the bed, as I watch the rosy glow of dawn meet the rising sun. I have time to walk our little, wooded acre with my little dachshund straining at the leash. I get to read the “signs,” with my Happy Dog, sniff the air, and gaze out at nowhere, studying the sky, with the same intensity that my little dog studies the ground.

I get to meet the day, every day. I get to say “good-night,” to the sunsets. I’ve studied a lot of sunsets, in the last five years, and I’ve never seen two that were alike. I get to know my Creator as I never have before, and I’ve gotten to make MY mind up, about the mysteries of life; and I have grown certain, that all this was no accident.

I feed the birds, and I take great delight in their multicolored hues, especially in the spring. I drag a chair to stand on, so that I can fill the feeders to the brim, myself. I say a little prayer, as I wobble, a little cock-eyed on the chair, and I laugh, at myself, and all the pretensions of my younger life. I take great delight in my life. I thank God for all the precious little things of every day. Friends. Family. Neighbors. And health. A health of the soul. For I have come to understand what real health is, and when you have REAL health, then you truly have everything.

Have a Great Week!

Scott

Monday Morning Coffee

Battle with the Drip System  (or why I should stick to Real Estate)

Good morning,

I hope you had a nice weekend.  It’s been nice to have the sun come back out the last week – although it feels like it is trying to make up for lost time.   In the further mis-adventures of Scott and the drip system, it seems like there was a bit too much pressure and on Wednesday morning while James, the pool guy, was cleaning the pool and I was about to jump in the shower there was a loud “pop” as one of the valves failed.  James almost ended up in the pool (it sounded like a gun shot) and pieces of the valve ended up in opposite directions 30 feet from where they were supposed to be – and I ended up at Home Depot again.

On the real estate side, things continue to slow down.  In July of 2009, we closed over 2,800 homes in San Diego County.  So far this month (11 of the 21 business days completed) we have closed 1,008.  The number in escrow is also down, from over 7,000 to just over 5,200 this year.  Call volume is also down significantly just when it should be picking up for the summer.  I am more solidly in the camp of – another dip in real estate and just hoping it bounces back early next year.  This could be great for investors as rates remain low the forth quarter could bring some great opportunities.

We don’t have any new listings this week, so let’s skip straight to the coffee -

Lessons Learned

Author Unknown

Have a Great Week!

Scott

Monday Morning Coffee
Real Estate Slowdown Ahead

Good morning,
I hope you had a great weekend – and for those of you who extended the 4th of July weekend into a weeks vacation – congratulations. Now, get back to work:-)

The market has definitely slowed, which has allowed me to get to a couple of projects around the house. We had planted a few vegetables and we have a spaghetti squash and butternut squash plants that have taken over the side yard and are about to try and break into the house. This made me finally tackle the sprinkler system in the yard – trying to convert it to a drip so I stop wattering the house and patio. Of course, only when I got to Home Depot did I realize that I did not even know how much I did not know about what I was trying to do. Four trips back and forth and eight sprinklers (about 40 to go) have been transitioned to drip or capped off – and only three of them leak.

But I digress from the main point, and that is that the only reason I have time to do this is the market has slowed down. Two weeks ago (I took last Monday off too) I said that things felt like they were slowing down. In July of 2009, we sold over 2800 homes. So far, 6 business days into a 21 day month, we have 475 sold. Now, the homes in escrow have increased by 300 so far this month, which might indicate that closings will ramp up at the end of the month, but I still think we could be down by about 20-25%. I hope I am wrong, but it sure feels slow out there. It is moving to a buyers’ market and I think now is the wrong time to try and squeeze every last dollar out of your home if you are selling. The risk/reward of holding out over the summer is not in the sellers favor right now.

That said, we have three great listings to tell you about – should have been four, but we bucked the trend and sold one of them last week:

3 bed townhome in 4S Ranch. This home is in the Gianni complex on the north side of 4S Ranch and is impeccably updated. Walking distance to Monterey Ridge, the Gianni complex is very popular for young families with elementary aged children. The home is priced at $429k.

South 4S Ranch View Home – This is one of two homes we have on Lone Bluff Way. This home is 4 beds, 3 1/2 baths, almost 2,900sf and a great view of Black Mountain. The yard is big enough for a pool. It is priced at $720k and we have 2 offers in. It will likely be gone by Monday evening. So if you are interested, let us know ASAP.

4 bed with loft – This is the other home available on Lone Bluff Way. It has a bedroom dowstairs as well as 3 beds and a large loft upstairs. It is over 3,200 sf of living space on a great cul-d-sac on the south side of 4S Ranch. Asking price is $745k.

That’s it for this week. Enjoy the Coffee (and tell all your friends to help the market and buy a house!)

This week’s edition comes because of those darn books you read to 4 year olds. You know, the ones you can’t get out of your head. Interestingly, there is sometimes more to learn from children’s books than from “adult” books. So, here is some wisdom from Theodore Geisel:

• A person’s a person, no matter how small.
• You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself, any direction you choose.
• Don’t cry because it’s over. Smile because it happened.
• Today is your day! Your mountain is waiting. So… get on your way.
• If you never did, you should. These things are fun, and fun is good.
• And will you succeed? Yes indeed, yes indeed! Ninety-eight and three-quarters percent guaranteed.
• Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.
• All alone! Whether you like it or not, alone is something you’ll be quite a lot.
• The more that you read, the more things you will know. The more that you learn, the more places you’ll go.
• Today was good. Today was fun. Tomorrow is another one.
• Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It’s not.
• I’m afraid sometimes you’ll play lonely games too, games you can’t win because you’ll play against you
• I’m sorry to say so but, sadly it’s true that bang-ups and hang-ups can happen to you
• I know up on the top you are seeing great sights, but down at the bottom we, too, should have rights.

By Theodore Geisel (aka Dr. Seuss).

Cmon, I can’t be serious every week,

Scott Voak

Monday Morning Coffee

Good morning,

I hope you had a nice weekend.  I learned that cooking ribs on the BBQ while swimming in the pool is a great way to end up with ribs that resemble charcoal in both look and taste. 

We had a couple of open houses this weekend and traffic was decent – not like what we have been seing, but not “sky is falling” bad either.  That is generally the feeling I get from other agents also, it has slowed down, but there are still buyers out there, despite the end of the tax credit.  Countywide, the trend I talked about last week is continuing – more and more homes on the market and a slowing sales rate.  

We still have the largest issue at the high end (over $1M) where there have been 708 sales in the last 6 months and there are 2,168 homes on the market (18 months inventory).  Until jumbo loans become more readily available, this number is not likely to go down much.

We have one new listing on the market this week, but the web site is not yet up for it.  If you are interested, it is a 4 bedroom, 3200+ sf home on the north side of 4S Ranch.  It is a short sale and is priced at $700k.  The owners have taken great care of the property and it shows very well.  

Next week, we will have a 3 bedroom 1,600+sf home in High Country West (West Rancho Bernardo) available.

That’s it – enjoy the coffee!

Lesson in Unconditional Acceptance

by Brenda

I am a mother of three (ages 14, 12, 3) and have recently completed my college degree. The last class I had to take was Sociology. The teacher was absolutely inspiring with the qualities that I wish every human being had been graced with. Her last project of the term was called “Smile”. The class was asked to go out and smile at three people and document their reaction.

I am a very friendly person and always smile at everyone and say hello anyway…..so, I thought, this would be a piece of cake (literally).

Soon after we were assigned the project, my husband, youngest son, and I went out to McDonalds, one crisp March morning. It was just our way of sharing special play time with our son.

We were standing in line, waiting to be served, when all of a sudden everyone around us began to back away, and then even my husband did. I did not move an inch…an overwhelming feeling of panic welled up inside of me as I turned to see why they had moved.

As I turned around I smelled a horrible “dirty body” smell…and there standing behind me were two poor homeless men. As I looked down at the short gentleman, close to me, he was “smiling”…his beautiful sky blue eyes were full of God’s Light as he searched for acceptance.

He said, “Good day” as he counted the few coins he had been clutching. The second man fumbled with his hands as he stood behind his friend. I realized the second man was mentally deficient and the blue eyed gentle man was his salvation. I held my tears……as I stood there with them.

The young lady at the counter asked him what they wanted. He said, “Coffee is all Miss” because that was all they could afford (to sit in the restaurant and warm up they had to buy something…they just wanted to be warm).

Then I really felt it…the compulsion was so great I almost reached out and embraced the little man with the blue eyes. That is when I noticed all eyes in the restaurant were set on me…judging my every action. I smiled and asked the young lady behind the counter to give me two more breakfast meals on a separate tray. I then walked around the corner to the table that the men had chosen as a resting spot.

I put the tray on the table and laid my hand on the blue eyed gentleman’s cold hand. He looked up at me, with tears in his eyes, and said, “Thank you”. I leaned over, began to pat his hand and said, “I did not do this for you…God is here working through me to give you hope”. I started to cry as I walked away to join my husband and son. When I sat down my husband smiled at me and said, “That is why God gave you to me honey….to give me hope”. We held hands for a moment and at that time we knew that only because of the Grace were we able to give …..

We are not church goers but we are believers. That day showed me the pure Light of God’s sweet love.

I returned to college, on the last evening of class,with this story in hand. I turned in “my project” and the instructor read it….then she looked up at me and said, “Can I share this?” I slowly nodded as she got the attention of the class. She began to read and that is when I knew that we as human beings (part of God) share this need to heal.

In my own way I had touched the people at McDonalds, my husband, son, instructor, and every soul that shared the classroom on the last night I spent as a college student. I Graduated with one of the biggest lessons I would ever learn….unconditional acceptance……after all….we are here to learn!

Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

Monday Morning Coffee

May Home Sales

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  Mine is rapidly coming to a close and there is still much to do, so this will be short this week.

Now that most of the reporting is done for May, the numbers are a little clearer for San Diego County. 

• There were over 3200 homes sold in May which was up 11% over 2009 and 10% over April.  This was to be expected as first time home buyers pushed out April closings to May to take advantage of the state tax credit.
• The number of homes in escrow at the end of the month fell to just over 5500, a 26% drop over 2009 and a 14$ drop over the end of April.  Once again, this was expected as the federal tax credit pulled a lot of demand forward, and now that it has expired, the demand will be less than it otherwise would have been through the summer.
• Inventory as measured by homes that are: Listed for sale, shown as Contingent or Pending, divided by the last 12 months sales increased by 8% over last year to 7.5 months – the first increase since September of 2008.  If measured using only the “Active” listings, inventory still sits at 4 months, which is even with last year.

Ok, so much for the quick analysis.  We have one new listing this week.  It is a short sale condo and as such the photos are not as good as they could be, but it is a great opportunity to look at a 2 bedroom starter condo for under $300k. This home went on the market last week with first showings at the open house Sunday.  We already have one offer, so if you are interested, please let me know asap.

That’s it, nice and short this week.  Enjoy the Coffee – this week, in honor of our graduates, an excerpt that supposedly came from a Bill Gates graduation speech.

On the rules of life for graduates.
RULE 1.

Life is not fair; get used to it.

RULE 2.

The world won’t care about your self-esteem. The world will expect you
to accomplish something BEFORE you feel good about yourself.

RULE 3.

You will NOT make 40 thousand dollars a year right out of high school OR
college. You won’t be a vice-president with a car phone, until you earn
both.

RULE 4.

If you think your teacher is tough, wait until you get a boss. He
doesn’t have tenure.

RULE 5.

Flipping burgers is not beneath your dignity. Your grandparents had a
different word for burger flipping; they called it opportunity.

RULE 6.

If you mess up, it’s not your parents’ fault, so don’t whine about your
mistakes, learn from them.

RULE 7.

Before you were born, your parents weren’t as boring as they are now.
They got that way from paying your bills, cleaning your clothes and
listening to you talk about how cool you are. So before you save the
rain forest from the parasites of your parents’ generation, try
“delousing” the closet in your own room.

RULE 8.

Your school may have done away with winners and losers, but life has
not. In some schools they have abolished failing grades; they’ll give
you as many times as you want to get the right answer. This doesn’t bear
the slightest resemblance to ANYTHING in real life.

RULE 9.

Life is not divided into semesters. You don’t get summers off and very
few employers are interested in helping you find yourself. Do that on
your own time.

RULE 10.

Television is NOT real life. In real life people actually have to leave
the coffee shop and go to jobs.

RULE 11.

Be nice to nerds. Chances are you’ll end up working for one.

 Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189

Monday Morning Coffee

Memorial Day Tribute

Good Morning,

I hope you had a nice Memorial Day.  This is running a day late as, well – it was a holiday.  Although the month is not officially over yet, a quick peek at the sales numbers for May showed some of the expected results, but also some that were not expected:

• There are 11,257 homes currently on the market.  This is 10% more than at this time last year and is the first time in 24 months that inventory has grown.
• The number of closed homes is slightly behind last May, but I expect that to change as the reporting closes out this week.  The surprise here is that that number was expected to be higher than last year due to the expiring tax credit and the fact that some people pushed their April closings into May to take advantage of the State tax credit. 
• The number of homes in escrow fell significantly.  Down 21% from last year and 8% from just last month.  This combined with the lower than expected closings in May is a little worrisome for sales moving forward.

Next week I will take another look at the numbers as reporting should be finished and they will be a little more solid.

Also next week, I will have one or two new condo listings for you.  We just need to get them all pretty for pictures.

That’s it, enjoy the Memorial Day Coffee.  I checked it out and it has been verified as true – I hope you stopped for a moment yesterday to give thanks to those for whom we were celebrating.

 Diary Of A Last and Final Flight Home

February 17, 2007,
0350
I was at curbside at 24th and M, Washington DC . 16 Degrees with a light breeze. Going home after my second week of freezing temps to my warm home in SoCal. Take a walk on the beach, ride a horse, climb a mountain and get back to living. I’m tired of the cold.

0425
paying the taxi fare at Dulles in front of the United Airlines counter, still cold.

0450
engaged the self-serve ticker machine and it delivers my ticket, baggage tag and boarding pass. Hmmm, that Marine over there is all dressed up in his dress blues a bit early this morning… “Good Morning Captain, you’re looking sharp.” He says, “Thank you, sir.”

Pass Security and to my gate for a decaf coffee and 5 hours sleep. A quick check of the flight status monitor and UA Flt 211 is on time. I’m up front, so how bad can that be? Hmmm, there’s that same Marine. He must be heading to Pendleton to see his lady at LAX for the long weekend, all dressed up like that. Or maybe not. I dunno.

The speaker system announces “Attention in the boarding area, we’ll begin boarding in 10 minutes, we have some additional duties to attend to this morning, but we’ll have you out of here on time.”

The Marine Captain has now been joined by five others. BINGO, I get it, he’s not visiting his lady, he’s an official escort. I remember doing that once, CACO duty. I still remember the names of the victim and family, The Bruno Family in Mojave – all of them, wows, that was 24 years ago.

On board, 0600:
“Good morning folks, this is the Captain. This morning we’ve been attending to some additional duties, and I apologize for being 10 minutes late for push back, but I believe we’ll be early into LAX. This morning it is my sad pleasure to announce that 1st LT Jared Landaker, USMC will be flying with us to his Big Bear home in Southern California. Jared lost his life over the skies of Iraq earlier this month, and today we have the honor of returning him home along with his mother, father and brother . Please join me in making the journey comfortable for the Landaker family and their uniformed escort. Now sit back and enjoy your ride. We’re not expecting any turbulence until we reach the Rocky Mountain area, but we’ll do what we can to ensure a smooth ride. For those interested, you can listen in to our progre ss on Channel 9.”

Click Channel 9: “Good morning UA 211. You are cleared to taxi, takeoff and cleared to LAX as filed.”

4 hours and 35 minutes later over Big Bear MT, the AB320 makes a left roll, a steep bank and then one to the right-Nice touch. Nice tribute. Five minutes out from landing, the Captain comes on the speaker: “Ladies and Gents, after landing I’m leaving the fasten seatbelt sign on, and I ask everyone to please yield to the Landaker family. Please remain seated until all members of the family have departed the aircraft. Thank you for your patience. We are 20 minutes early.”

On roll out, I notice red lights, emergency vehicles approaching. We’re being escorted directly to our gate, no waiting, not even a pause. Out the left window, a dozen Marines in full dress blues. A true class act by everyone, down to a person. Way to go United Airlines for doing things RIGHT, Air Traffic Control for getting the message, and to all security personnel for your display of brotherhood.

When the family departed the aircraft everyone sat silent, then I heard a lady say,”God Bless you and your family, and thank you.” Then a somber round of applause. The Captain read a prepared note from Mrs. Landaker to the effect, “Thank you all for your patience and heartfelt concern for us and our son. We sincerely appreciate the sentiment. It’s good to have Jared home.”

After departing the a/c I found myself along with 30 others from our flight looking out the lobby window back at the plane. Not a dry eye. It was one of the most emotional moments I’ve ever experienced. We all stood there silently, and watched as Jared was taken by his honor guard to an awaiting hearse. Then the motorcade slowly made it’s way off the ramp.

I realized I had finally seen the silent majority. It is deep within us all. Black, Brown, White, Yellow, Red, Purple, we’re all children, parents, brothers, sisters, etc – we are an American family.

Official Report: February 7, 2007, Anbar Province, Iraq .. 1st LT Jared Landaker United States Marine Corps, from Big Bear California, gave his live in service to his country. Fatally wounded when his CH-46 helicopter was shot down by enemy fire. Jared and his crew all perished. His life was the ultimate sacrifice of a grateful military family and nation.

His death occurred at the same time as Anna Nicole Smith, a drug using person with a 7th grade education of no pedigree who dominated our news for two weeks while Jared became a number on CNN. And most unfortunately, Jared’s death underscores a fact that we are a military at war, not a nation at war. It has been said that Marines are at war. America is at the mall.

1st LT Landaker, a man I came to know in the sky’s over America on 17 February 2007, from me to you, aviator to aviator, I am unbelievably humbled. It was my high honor to share your last flight. God bless you.

Semper Fi

Stuart Witte

Have a Great Week – because you can,

Scott Voak