Monday Morning Coffee – Bailout Shakeout?

Monday Morning Coffee

Is the Stimulus just Delaying Another Housing Crash?

January 31, 2010

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  We had another week of fighting colds, but did manage to be fairly productive.  I was hoping to spend some time last week researching the issue of inflation vs deflation and appreciate the reports that many of you sent.  However, since two of them were over 70 pages, I didn’t get through everything.  I did find a couple of things that were interesting, one relating to the economy in general and the other specifically to the bail out.

The first was a one line quote that was so simple yet made a ton of sense.  It is often quoted that consumer spending is 70% of the economy (before the recent government stimulous).  Everyone is waiting for the consumers to start spending.  The author of this article made the point that “Consumers don’t spend.  Producers do.”  The point of his article was that consumers spent in the past because they could run up credit and use their homes as ATMs.  In the future, they are going to have to have jobs so they can pay down the bills from previous spending and then they will spend.  With over 10% unemployment (and those employed trying to pay down debts), the author’s point is it is unlikely that the 70% of our economy that is consumer driven is going to come back soon.

Relating to the bail out, an independant watchdog at the Treasury Department said that the $700B bailout might have stopped a meltdown last year, but have put us in a position for a larger meltdown as the companies that were “to big to fail” are now bigger and taking more risks because they know the government will bail them out.  Specifically in the housing area, over 90% of the loans originated lated year are backed by the government.  Which means if they fail, it isn’t private investors on the hook, but the US tax payer.  Based on the article, the only reason the market has rebounded is the massive government subsidies and tax breaks for mortgages.  It contends that once this ends, prices may fall to 8-10% below the lows of last spring.  Yikes – I think I’m going back to bed for another week.

I will spend some time this week to go through all the deflation/inflation reports.

We did have a productive week though.  We listed three new homes and put one into escrow.  In addition to the three new ones, I want to highlight one from last week again.  The homes:

Silent Short Sale – This is a 3 bedroom plus loft and office with a pool.  It is on the north side of 4S Ranch and we have one person interested in it now, but would like to have 2 or 3 to show this weekend.  We will take the best offer to the bank, so there is a chance to get a good deal on this one as it may go slightly under $700k.

5 Bedroom with a pool and a view!  We will be putting this on just after the Super Bowl.  Photos will be later this week, so I might have a site for you next Monday.  It is 3990sf and is in the Terreno development with a huge yard and sunset views.  It will be initially priced in the low to mid $900k range and is a truly unique property.

4 Bedroom Gated Community – This is a very nice plan 3 home in Garden Gate.  It is on the outside, so there is nobody behind it.  It is extremely nice inside and features the oversized island in the kitchen.  There is a full bedroom and bath downstairs.  This is a normal sale and will go fast.  We have not set pricing on it yet, but it is most likely going to go in the low to mid $600k range.

Short Sale Condo – A 3 bedroom in the Gianni complex across from Monterey Ridge Elementary.  The short sale may take some time, but if you are patient it is a good chance to get a 3 bedroom for hopefully under $400k.

 That’s it.  Enjoy the Coffee!  This one was sent to me by a client who just moved out of the area.  I was going to save it for a holiday, but – why wait.  Thanks to Shanzar for sending it to me.

Written by an Australian Dentist  

To Kill an American

You probably missed this in the rush of news, but there was actually a report that someone in Pakistan had published in a newspaper, an offer of a reward to anyone who killed an American, any American.  

So an Australian dentist wrote an editorial the following day to let everyone know what an American is . So they would know when they found one. (Good one, mate!!!!)

‘An American is English, or French, or Italian, Irish, German, Spanish , Polish, Russian or Greek. An American may also be Canadian, Mexican, African, Indian, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Australian, Iranian, Asian, or Arab, or Pakistani or Afghan.

An American may also be a Comanche, Cherokee, Osage, Blackfoot, Navaho, Apache, Seminole or one of the many other tribes known as native Americans.

An American is Christian , or he could be Jewish, or Buddhist, or Muslim. In fact, there are more Muslims in America than in Afghanistan . The only difference is that in America they are free to worship as each of them chooses.

An American is also free to believe in no religion….. For that he will answer only to God, not to the government, or to armed thugs claiming to speak for the government and for God.

An American lives in the most prosperous land in the history of the world.
The root of that prosperity can be found in the Declaration of Independence , which recognizes the God given right of each person to the pursuit of happiness.

An American is generous. Americans have helped out just about every other nation in the world in their time of need, never asking a thing in return………

When Afghanistan was over-run by the Soviet army 20 years ago, Americans came with arms and supplies to enable the people to win back their country!

As of the morning of September 11, Americans had given more than any other nation to the poor in Afghanistan ….
The national symbol of America , The Statue of Liberty , welcomes your tired and your poor, the wretched refuse of your teeming shores, the homeless, tempest tossed. These in fact are the people who built America  

Some of them were working in the Twin Towers the morning of September 11, 2001 earning a better life for their families. It’s been told that the World Trade Center victims were from at least 30 different countries, cultures, and first languages, including those that aided and abetted the terrorists.
 So you can try to kill an American if you must.. Hitler did. So did General Tojo , and Stalin , and Mao Tse-Tung, and other blood-thirsty tyrants in the world. But, in doing so you would just be killing yourself . Because Americans are not a particular people from a particular place. They are the embodiment of the human spirit of freedom. Everyone who holds to that spirit, everywhere, is an American.

Have Great Week!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189

Monday Morning Coffee

Monday Morning Coffee

January 24, 2010

Good morning!

Hope you had a great weekend and enjoyed the sun while it made it’s welcome return (for those of you not in San Diego, 4 consecutive days of rain had the ship building engineers at NASCO looking for The Ark specifications)  Last week was a good one for us.  I did not mention it previously, but I went through a short spell (several hours) where I lost the ability to write.  I just could not make a pen move the way it was supposed to.  I went through some neurological tests and after a stressful week plus, I finally had an MRI. 

Fortunately, they found nothing wrong (something about a Homer Simpson sized brain though).  So, the Dr. has no idea.  Hey, as long as it’s not a stroke or a tumor, I can live with a confused doctor.  To celebrate this great news, I caught Zach’s cold and spent 2 days in bed…

…which gave me some reading time, and I may want to reverse my thoughts that all the money the Fed is pumping into the economy will be inflationary (my maybe not so brilliant blog from 2 weeks ago).  A couple of studies I read brought up the fact that adding money to the economy is inflationary only if it gets to the public’s pockets so we can spend it and drive prices up.  Right now, a lot of the money the Fed is injecting seems to be covering bad loans rather than entering the economy.  It certainly is not doing much for unemployment.  I need to study some more.  If anyone has some good sources, I would appreciate taking a look at them.

I have a couple of new listings this week.  The first is the one I mentioned last week.  It is a 4 bedroom in the Canyon Ridge neighborhood of 4S and it has a pool.  We still cannot get in to show it yet but do have the site up.  It has a great backyard.

We also have another of our silent short sales.  This one is on the north side of 4S Ranch and is a Silver Crest Plan 3 (3400 sf).  It has an office downstairs and a loft upstairs so it technically is a 3 bedroom, but the loft can easily be converted to a large bedroom (already has a closet).  Unique to this home is that it is one of the few on the north side of 4S Ranch with a pool.  If you are interested in seeing this one, please let me know.  The owners do not want it on the MLS at this time, so it will go out to you and to some of the better agents in the area to see if they have buyers.  It is a good opporunity to get a home at below market price.  We are pricing it originally at $700k and will take the best offer we have in 2 weeks to the bank.

We also listed a fantastic Terreno plan 3 (3,990 sf).  This home sits on one of the better lots (almost 1/3 acre) in the development and features a pool and a panoramic south-west sunset view.  There is a full bedroom suite downstairs and four additional beds upstairs.  We plan on putting it on the market after the Superbowl.  If you are interested, let me know and I will get you in as soon as it is ready.  We expect to price it in the mid $900k range.

I am working on a couple of smaller homes too, and should know on those in a couple of days.

Ok, that’s it.  Enjoy the Coffee!

This week is a continuation on the inspirational stories from people who face life with more challenges than most of us.  After last week’s follow up to the autistic basketball story, two of you sent me the story of Patrick Henry Hughes.  Thanks to Randy and Sue for bringing it to my attention:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qTiYA1WiY8&feature=related

Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189

Monday Morning Coffee – What happens when the Fed stops buying Mortgages?

Monday Morning Coffee

What Happens when the Fed stops buying MSBE’s?

Januray 17, 2010

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  We were very busy as we had 18 friends over for dinner on Friday night and went to the San Diego Association of Realtors Installation Dinner where our friend Mark Marquez was installed as President on Saturday night.  So now, it is a race for bed!

Updated my blog earlier today with a post on what is going to happen when the Fed stops buying MSBEs in March.  The short version is that the market will slow, interest rates will rise and they will step in again to resume purchases, but on a smaller scale with rates up about 1% over the year.  The long version is here.

We have a new couple of new homes this week, but due to lingering issues with the office move, I do not have single property sites up for them yet.  Both are short sales:

Palomino Plan 3 in 4S – 4550sf 6 bedroom home with a 4 car garage on a very large lot.  It is priced at $900k.  We have offers on this and will probably be off the market early in the week.

Canyon Ridge Plan 2 in 4S – 3600+ sf 4 bedroom home with an loft and an office over the garage.  This is also a large lot and has a pool (but there is an issue with underground water that needs to be dealt with or at least acknowledged).  There are no showings on this until next weekend when we will have an open house (owners are packing).  It is priced at $800k.

That’s it – I will have single property sites for them next week.

Enjoy the Coffee!

This week I am revisiting a story I posted last year for an update.  It’s the one about the autistic basketball player and hits home for Cori and I as Zach’s Fragile-X puts him on the autistism spectum.  As he is getting older, his issues are becoming more pronounced and we gain more respect every day for both our own son and other families that navigate the world of autism/Fragile-X every day.  He is almost 4, and although I prefer he take up soccer to basketball (due to my own limited skills), any way he can have a moment like this would be worth it.  Videos like this are a great source of hope for parents who have handicapped children.

Have a Great Week!

Scott

Prediction for when the Fed stops buying MBSEs

I was looking at numbers over the last year as they related to sales values to try and figure out what effect that Fed’s purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities has been.  A major problem it getting accurate numbers is that housing prices are reported as an average or median price.  In markets that are consistent, this is a good method to use.  However, when the market changes (as it has recently) the median price especially becomes less and less meaningful.  Here’s a quick explanation:

Let’s say there are 10 houses that sell. 

• 4 are two bedroom homes that sell for $200k.
• 2 are four bedroom homes that sell for $400k.
• 4 are six bedroom homes that sell for $600k. 
• In this case, your median price is $400k (median is the price of the average home, not the average price of homes). 

 Now, let’s say the price for each home increases $50,000.  However, due to a factor such as loans being difficult or no inventory being available on 6 bedroom homes, we sell the following homes:

• 4 two bedroom homes for $250k.
• 2 four bedroom homes for $450k.
• 1 six bedroom home for $650k.
• In this case, your median price is $250k. 

Here is a simplistic example showing that the median price fell even though the price on every home increased.  It is also the reason why current data on housing prices is to be viewed a little skeptically.  My guess is that the data on median prices is under reporting the gain in housing because the shift has been towards more less expensive homes selling which brings the median down. 

So, I looked at my favorite housing micro-economy, 4S Ranch.  Here I can break houses down to similar sizes and ownership (condo vs fee simple) and look at what a slice of homes has done over several years.  In some of the data segments, there are not enough sales to be meaningful,  but in others, there is a large enough sample size to give a relatively clear picture.  A problem does come into play when one segment has several short sales or foreclosures in a quarter as they skew the prices downward.  Going through the home sales for the past year and trying to adjust for foreclosures, etc.  I come to the following conclusions (with reservation as this is not exact by any means and there is a good margin for error):

• Detached homes priced under $650k were up 5-12% (the 12% is a little shaky due to small sample size).  I would feel fairly comfortable saying these homes are up in general about 7% in the last year.
• Homes priced above $800k slumped early in the year, but have made it back to about even. 

I think a large part of the difference here is the fact that loans are much easier to get in the lower price ranges (in fact, all of the homes I have sold over $800k in the last year have been bought by buyers with large downpayments.  There are almost no loans above $700k to be had).  The only reason that loans below $700k are available at current interest rates is that the Fed has been buying them from the banks to the tune of many BBBBillions of dollars a week.  If this ends as scheduled in March, rates are going to have to rise for the following very simple reason – we have to entice someone else to buy the loans.  Here’s a fictional conversation between Bank of America and China:  Remember those BBBBillions of dollars of loans we sold you a couple of years ago?  We know it didn’t turn out real well for you what with all those defaults and foreclosures.  But….how about buying a couple hundred BBBBillion more?  It is not too hard to see that China (or any other buyer of mortgages) is going to want a higher return for taking on the risk.  A higher return for them means higher rates for you and me. 

So, if the Fed stops buying mortgages as planned in March, rates will rise rather quickly.  How high and how fast?  Well they have to rise high enough that the rest of the world will buy the loans, but not high enough that people stop buying houses.  Market “experts” think rates will rise between .75% and 2%.  If they rise 1.5%, it could take someone who qualifies for a $640k loan down to about a $495k loan.  That would take the wind right out of the housing market.  A buyer who has been looking at a $675k house an imagining the four bedrooms is not going to put the same payment into a three bedroom condo.  They will likely sit on the sidelines and we will see the number of transactions slow dramatically until prices fall enough to put our buyer back into a four bedroom house. 

So, do I think prices are neccessarily going to drop 20%?  No.  For the same reason I predicted in August that the Home Buyer Tax Credit would be extended – politicians are running the show.  I am not an economist, but I have at least a basic understanding of the markets.  However, I think it is fairly easy to predict what is going to happen – so, here it goes:

• Rates will start to rise in mid-late February (loans that start in mid February will be completed in mid March and have to be sold in late March, when the Fed is scheduled to stop buying them).
• By the end of March it will be pretty clear that rising rates have slowed down the housing market and talk will start fresh about a housing led double-dip recession.
• Democrats who control the entire political engine in Washington will very quickly realize that a summer recession with ever increasing unemployment and vacant foreclosed homes will translate into a lot of lost seats in the House of Representatives in the November election.
• By mid-April (if not sooner) the Fed will announce that they will resume buying MBSEs although on a smaller scale (this will be an attempt to create a soft landing).
• The market will stabilize again although we are not likely to see the same enthusiasm for real estate as we are seeing right now.  This is because the Fed eventually has to get out of buying all the mortgages the banks can write (don’t they?), and as they do, rates will slowly creep up.

Since I am making the prediction, it is sure to not happen, but I think we will end the year with mortgage rates about .75-1% higher than they are today and prices within 3-5% of where they are although they may bounce around a lot before settling down.

Monday Morning Coffee – Final 2009 San Diego Home Sale Numbers

Monday Morning Coffee

Final 2009 San Diego Home Sale Numbers

Januray 10, 2010

Good morning!

I hope you had a great weekend.  Last week was Week 2 of The Move.  Getting into our new office has been interesting.  We finally had internet up on Wednesday.  Phones are expected in sometime this week…  The highlight was sitting in the office at 4:30 on Wednesday and thinking the entire world behind me was on fire only to turn around and realize we have an exceptional sunset view.  Of course with my limited IPhone photo capability I had to post the picture on Facebook.  The lowlight was — the phones.

Looking at year end on a couple of levels, in the county, inventory remained tight at 3.1 months sales.  Closings were up 24% over 2008 and inventory was down 44% (sales for December and inventory at year end).  Breaking inventory down a little further and we find that:

• <$650k there are 2.2mos of inventory
• $650k – $800k there is 4.7mos of inventory
• $800k – $1M    there is 6 mos of inventory
• $1M – $1.5M there is 9.6 mos of inventory
• >$1.5M there is 2 years of inventory

This is consistent with the thought I have put forth that the market under $650k is being supported by the tax credit and the Fed buying MBSEs, both of which are set to end this spring.   There is now talk that the Fed will continue (or resume after a short break) purchasing the mortgage securities.  Even if they don’t, it isn’t likely that the <$650k inventory will rush out to 9.6 mos, but we could see total inventory slide to 6 mos and prices dip again.

Taking a more indepth look at my favorite neighborhood (4S Ranch due to a combination of factors that makes it a very good indicator for California + I live here), here are the quarter highlights:

• Attached
  •  Sales were up 300% over a year ago 40% over Q3.  This is easily explained as people were rushing to beat the previous expiration of the tax credit. 
  • Prices were 1-2% lower than a year ago but2-3% higher than the previous quarter.
  • 2/3 of all sales were distressed (foreclosures or short sales).  If such a high percentage were not distressed, we would have seen a significant price increase.
• Detached Condos
  • Sales up 80% in quantity over a year ago (small sample size)
  • Prices up 2-3% over a year ago.
  • 74% normal sales vs 74% distressed in the third quarter.
• Detached Single Family
  • Volume up 11% over a year ago.
  • Prices up on the smaller homes (<2750sf) by 12% over a year ago but basically even at larger sizes.
  • 28% of sales were distressed.

I am going to do more analysis later in the week, but my gut tells me that the tax credit and the mortgage purchases by the Fed have made about an 8-10% difference in the market this year.

Ok, that’s enough analysis.  One new home this week.  This is a 4 bedroom with an office and a synthetic putting green!  It is on the north side of 4S Ranch and just hit the market on Thursday.  Happily, this is not a short sale but the previous owners, Fiona and Scott, left town for a very solid east coast opportunity (my thought is solid like the block of ice they are going to have to chip off the windshield, but hey, I like my 63 degree winters).

I will have a 4550 sf short sale home next week and am working on a couple of smaller ones for later this month.

Enjoy the Coffee – this week is one you may have seen and probably have heard about, but it is a great reminder that you need to treat every client with courtesy and respect – especially if they play a guitar and sing.

                            A Lesson in Customer Service…

A musician named Dave Carroll recently had difficulty with United
Airlines. United apparently damaged his treasured Taylor guitar ($3500) during a flight.
Dave spent over 9 months trying to get United to pay
for damages caused by baggage handlers to his custom Taylor guitar.
During his final exchange with the United Customer Relations Manager, he stated that he was left with no choice other than to create a music video for YouTube exposing their lack of cooperation.
The Manager responded : “Good luck with that one, pal”.

So he posted a retaliatory video on YouTube. The video has since
received over 5.5 million hits. United Airlines contacted the musician and attempted settlement in exchange for pulling the video.
Naturally his response was: “Good luck with that one, pal”.

Taylor Guitars sent the musician 2 new custom guitars in
appreciation for the product recognition from the video that has lead to a sharp increase in orders.
Here’s the video …..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YGc4zOqozo&NR=1

Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189

Monday Morning Coffee – Happy New Year!!

Monday Morning Coffee

Look at Foreclosure and Default Rates for Q3 2009

January 3, 2010

Good morning,

I hope you had a great Holiday and New Year.  Cori and I were planning on going out New Year’s Eve, but life got in the way of the party.  So, as we were sitting home waiting for the New Year, I was drinking a Guiness and trying to figure the best way to salute 2009 as it made its exit.  Then I remembered a very eloquent speach an Irish friend of mine (I was drinking a Guiness) once made that summed up my feelings for 2009 pretty well, “Piss Off!”  (He was acutally pretty drunk at the time, and we were a lot younger, and it was in reference to a girl in a bar and things weren’t going well for him and…) Anyway, it seemed to kind of fit everything that happened in 2009.  Then I congratulated 2010 because 2009 set a pretty low standard to beat.  I went to bed only to have Zach wake me up at 3:30 am and make me realize that things aren’t going to change overnight (but at 3:30 am I was thankful it was only 1 Guiness).

 Anyway, here’s hoping 2010 is a great year for all of us.

Late in December, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision (imagine a lot of accountants that don’t get invited to anyone’s New Years Eve party) released their report on mortgages, foreclosures and other fun stuff for the third quarter of 2009.  (Since I took the last week off from MMC, you had to know this was going to be a long one.)  The report is 49 pages and I can send it to you if you want it.  Key points were:

• Non performing loans are up to 12.8% of all mortgages.
• Almost 1/3 of all option ARM loans are delinquent.
• Home retention actions were up significantly (driven by Home Affordable) in the quarter.
• For every 6 homes that were 60 days late or in foreclosure, there was 1 person who received a mortgage modification or started a trial period plan.
• The most positive sign was that for loan modifications done in the second quarter of 2009, only 18.7% were 60 days late a quarter later (down from 30.7%) This is due to the fact that more modifications than before are lowering the monthly payment by 20% or more.   (I know, it’s kind of like being happy we only lost another 400,000 jobs last month). 
• For 2008, if loan modifications resulted in a payment that decreased by 20% or more, 38.6% of the loans were 60 days or more delinquent by the end of the third quarter of 2009.  If the payment decreased by less than 10% a month, 55.1% of the loans were 60 or more days delinquent.
• Completed foreclosures increased 11.9% and short sales by 22.4% over the second quarter showing that the banks are starting to process more of both.
• Government guaranteed loans (FHA, VA, etc.) perform worse than other loans with 17% of all these loans at least 30 days delinquent. 83% of these loans were securitized by Ginnie Mae.
• There are 3 times as many government guaranteed loans in serious default as there are in foreclosure, indicated there will be a continuing increase in these foreclosures.  (It is also important to note that much of the growth we are seeing right now in the market is because of the easy availability of FHA loans – I hope that the newer loans being issued are not showing the same risk level as those writen 2-3 years ago.)
• Fannie and Freddie loans are mostly Prime loans and are performing better than the rest of the market with only 7.9% 30+ days delinquent.
• An interesting thing to note is that even though prime loans have only a 3.6% serious delinquency rate (60+ days late) compared to 20.1% for subprime, the number of prime loans that are seriously delinquent is 838,083 vs 558,419 for subprime.  The serious delinquency rate for prime loans grew 117.5% in the past year.  The sheer number of prime loans out there means its performance will dwarf anything that happens in the subprime or Alt-A loan arena.

Ok, that’s enough cheerful news to start the year.  On a better note, we had one new listing we put on the market last week and before I could get the single property site up, we had 4 offers and ended up with 10.  We should go into escrow on Wednesday and it will sell for more than it will appraise for (it is under $500k). 

 I will have a 4 bedroom 3,200+sf home for you next week in 4S.

That’s it for now, but before the coffee, I wanted to share a cool project my sister was involved in last October.  She went down to Guatemala and helped fit people with prosthetics (she’s a PT).  There’s a link to the program video for anyone that’s interested (she’s in the orangish shirt) - and even if you aren’t interested, I’m still proud of her for doing it.

Enjoy the Coffee!

The Praying Hands

Back in the fifteenth century, in a tiny village near Nuremberg, lived a family with eighteen children. Eighteen! In order merely to keep food on the table for this mob, the father and head of the household, a goldsmith by profession, worked almost eighteen hours a day at his trade and any other paying chore he could find in the neighborhood. Despite their seemingly hopeless condition, two of Albrecht Durer the Elder’s children had a dream. They both wanted to pursue their talent for art, but they knew full well that their father would never be financially able to send either of them to Nuremberg to study at the Academy.

        After many long discussions at night in their crowded bed, the two boys finally worked out a pact. They would toss a coin. The loser would go down into the nearby mines and, with his earnings, support his brother while he attended the academy. Then, when that brother who won the toss completed his studies, in four years, he would support the other brother at the academy, either with sales of his artwork or, if necessary, also by laboring in the mines.

        They tossed a coin on a Sunday morning after church. Albrecht Durer won the toss and went off to Nuremberg. Albert went down into the dangerous mines and, for the next four years, financed his brother, whose work at the academy was almost an immediate sensation. Albrecht’s etchings, his woodcuts, and his oils were far better than those of most of his professors, and by the time he graduated, he was beginning to earn considerable fees for his commissioned works.

        When the young artist returned to his village, the Durer family held a festive dinner on their lawn to celebrate Albrecht’s triumphant homecoming. After a long and memorable meal, punctuated with music and laughter, Albrecht rose from his honored position at the head of the table to drink a toast to his beloved brother for the years of sacrifice that had enabled Albrecht to fulfill his ambition. His closing words were, “And now, Albert, blessed brother of mine, now it is your turn. Now you can go to Nuremberg to pursue your dream, and I will take care of you.”

        All heads turned in eager expectation to the far end of the table where Albert sat, tears streaming down his pale face, shaking his lowered head from side to side while he sobbed and repeated, over and over, “No …no …no …no.”

        Finally, Albert rose and wiped the tears from his cheeks. He glanced down the long table at the faces he loved, and then, holding his hands close to his right cheek, he said softly, “No, brother. I cannot go to Nuremberg. It is too late for me. Look … look what four years in the mines have done to my hands! The bones in every finger have been smashed at least once, and lately I have been suffering from arthritis so badly in my right hand that I cannot even hold a glass to return your toast, much less make delicate lines on parchment or canvas with a pen or a brush. No, brother …
for me it is too late.”

        More than 450 years have passed. By now, Albrecht Durer’s hundreds of masterful portraits, pen and silver-point sketches, watercolors, charcoals, woodcuts, and copper engravings hang in every great museum in the world, but the odds are great that you, like most people, are familiar with only one of Albrecht Durer’s works. More than merely being familiar with it, you very well may have a reproduction hanging in your home or office.

        One day, to pay homage to Albert for all that he had sacrificed, Albrecht Durer painstakingly drew his brother’s abused hands with palms together and thin fingers stretched skyward. He called his powerful drawing simply “Hands,” but the entire world almost immediately opened their hearts to his great masterpiece and renamed his tribute of love “The Praying Hands.”

        The next time you see a copy of that touching creation, take a second look. Let it be your reminder, if you still need one, that no one – no one – - ever makes it alone!

Have a Great YEAR!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189