Coffee

Monday Morning Coffee

Every Monday morning, my subscribers receive Monday Morning Coffee.  It’s a strong dark blended roast that analyzes items both economic and political that affect the San Diego Real Estate Market.  Topped with a dash of new listing activity and a squirt of motiviation or inspiration to get your week off on the right foot.  It definitely ranks up there with Starbucks as an addictive morning fix.

At the request of several people, I am posting past versions here.  Of course, please ignore my predictions if they were incorrect!

Monday Morning Coffee – Conflicting Messages on the Recovery

Last modified on 2010-03-15 03:46:52 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee

Does the Statistical Recovery Have Legs?

Good Morning!

I hope you had a nice weekend.  It was nice to see San Diego weather make a return appearance on Sunday – hope it stays around for awhile.  We had a slow weekend, I worked a half day Saturday and Sunday but got to spend some good time with Zach in the mornings and Cori in the evening (fired up the Jacuzzi for the first time in several months on Saturday). 

We are still staying busy as we listed two homes last week (details below) and put one buyer into escrow.  Countywide, inventory stayed fairly steady last week. 

I saw an interesting article (Thoughts from the Frontline by John Mauldin) addressing the economy.  It talked about the conflicting signals we are seeing in the economy:

On the positive side:

• Corporations are more productive and have more cash on hand than anytime in the last 50 years. 
• The amount of corporate debt is falling, meaning companies are getting stronger financially.
• Capital spending jumped last quarter – a good sign for employment because once you by the capital equipment, you have to hire someone to run it.
• We are close to the point where we will stop losing jobs and start adding them (if trends continue)

On the negative side:

• More than 5 million homeowners are behind on  mortgages.
• 30% of manufacturing capacity is idle (meaning companies don’t have to buy a lot of new equipment (which creates jobs in making the new equipment), but can just absorb the idle capacity).
• 19 million homes 15% of the total, are vacant.
• 1 in 6 Americans is underemployed or unemployed.
• Average American worker has lost $100k in wealth over the last 2 years.
• Transfer payments (read welfare and unemployment) from the US Government make up 18% of personal income!

Stop and read that last one again.  1 of every 5 dollars that an American puts into his account is coming from the rest of the taxpayers through the government as unemployment or welfare.  Ouch. 

The point of the article was that some of the signals are pointing to a recover and the Fed may be watchful for inflation, but that there are a lot of indicators (mainly employment the level of federal subsidies) that indicate the economy is still very fragile.  It did not draw any conclusions or make any predictions, but did note that this seems to be a very “statistical recover” and not really a recovery that is helping the people – therefore when the stimulus ends, so could the recovery.  It will be interesting to see – but I am tired of interesting, let’s just turn this thing around already.

As I mentioned above, we did take two listings last week.  Prep and photos are this week and next, but if anyone is interested, here are the details:

Tierrasanta – 3 beds, 2.5 baths about 1500 sf with open space behind.  This one will go out at about $450k.

4S Ranch – 3 beds, 2.5 baths about 2344 sf on a corner lot.  This will be about $600k.

If you are interested, let me know and I will try and get you in during the photos.

Well, the kitchen faucet just broke, so time to wrap it up and head to Home Depot.  Enjoy the Coffee!

Crabby Old Man

When an old man died in the geriatric ward of a nursing home  in North Platte , Nebraska , it was believed that he had nothing left of any value.   Later, when the nurses were going through his meager possessions, they found this poem. Its quality and content so impressed the staff that copies were made and distributed to every nurse in the hospital. One nurse took her copy to Missouri. 

The old man’s sole bequest to posterity has since appeared in the Christmas edition of the News Magazine of the St. Louis Association for Mental Health. A slide presentation has also been made based on his simple, but eloquent, poem. And this little old man, with nothing left to give to the world, is now the author of this ‘anonymous’ poem winging across the Internet.

Crabby Old Man

What do you see nurses? . . . .. . What do you see?
What are you thinking . . . . . When you’re looking at me?
A crabby old man . . . . . Not very wise,
Uncertain of habit . . . . . With faraway eyes?

Who dribbles his food . . . . . And makes no reply.
When you say in a loud voice . . . . . ‘I do wish you’d try!’
Who seems not to notice . . . . . The things that you do.
And forever is losing . . . . . A sock or shoe?

Who, resisting or not . . . . . Lets you do as you will,
With bathing and feeding . . . . . The long day to fill?
Is that what you’re thinking? . . . . . Is that what you see?
Then open your eyes, nurse . . . . . You’re not looking at me.

I’ll tell you who I am. . . . . . As I sit here so still,
As I do at your bidding, . . . . . As I eat at your will.
I’m a small child of Ten . . . . . With a father and mother,
Brothers and sisters . . . . . Who love one another.

A young boy of Sixteen . . . . With wings on his feet.
Dreaming that soon now . . . . . A lover he’ll meet.
A groom soon at Twenty . . . . . My heart gives a leap.
Remembering, the vows . . . . . That I promised to keep.

At Twenty-Five, now . . . . . I have young of my own.
Who need me to guide . . . . . And a secure happy home.
A man of Thirty . . . . . My young now grown fast,
Bound to each other . . . . . With ties that should last.

At Forty, my young sons . . . . . Have grown and are gone,
But my woman’s beside me . . . . . To see I don’t mourn.
At Fifty, once more, babies play ’round my knee,
Again, we know children . . . . . My loved one and me.

Dark days are upon me . . . . . My wife is now dead.
I look at the future . . . . . Shudder with dread.
For my young are all rearing . . . . . Young of their own.
And I think of the years . . . . . And the love that I’ve known.

I’m now an old man . . . . . And nature is cruel.
Tis jest to make old age . . . .. . Look like a fool.
The body, it crumbles . . . . . Grace and vigor, depart.
There is now a stone . .. . . Where I once had a heart.

But inside this old carcass . . . . . A young guy still dwells,
And now and again . . . . . My battered heart swells.
I remember the joys . . . . . I remember the pain.
And I’m loving and living . . . . . Life over again.

I think of the years, all too few . . . . . Gone too fast.
And accept the stark fact . . . . That nothing can last.
So open your eyes, people . . . . . Open and see.
Not a crabby old man . . . Look closer . . . See ME!!

Remember this poem when you next meet an older person who you might brush aside without looking at the young soul within. 

We will all, one day, be there, too!

February San Diego Sales Numbers

Last modified on 2010-03-07 23:11:10 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

February San Diego Home Sales

Looking at February sales numbers, there were 2059 homes sold (includes all types and relies on the hope that agents have listed homes sold as “sold” in mls). This is an 8% reduction from last year and combined with January’s 10% reduction, puts us about 400 homes behind last year at this time. The trend is likely to continue, as there are also fewer homes in escrow than there were last year.
The slower pace of sales is more than offset by the lower number of listings (37%) than we had at this time last year. This makes sense as inventory really started to dive last year in April as the banks were actively holding off the foreclosure process. Inventory was down at the end of February compared to the end of January by about 5% (550 homes), but there is already an additional 400 homes on the market on the 6th of March.
The graph below shows the last 6 years activity (I’m going to have to go to a quarterly graph soon)

San Diego Home Sales (MLS)

A couple of interesting points to see when it is graphed out like this:

1. Sales volume (demand) has remained fairly consistent since late 2006 with the exception of the specific issues we had in the mortage markets in September of 07 and November of 08. 
2. The increase in March 09 was when the Fed started purchasing mortgages (which is supposed to end this month).
3. The drop in sales in January (last month) can be attributed to two factors:  First, there were a lot of closing in October and November as people were trying to beat the expected expiration of the tax credit (which is now been pushed to April contract/June close).  Second, new mortgage rules have stretched out closings past the normal 30 days.  You can see this in the fact that at the same time closings have fallen, homes in escrow increased – the activity is there, the government just put a kink in the hose with all the new regulations.  I expect we will see a strong March in terms of closings as these homes work their way through escrow.

An interesting chart to look at takes a look at inventory levels over the last several years.  For the chart below, I am measuring inventory of San Diego homes differently than others do.  I am including all homes that are Active on the market, plus those that are Pending and Contingent.  The reason for this is twofold:  The Contingent designation is relatively new.  In the past, these homes might have been included in Active or Pending, so there would be errors either before or after the Contingent designation was created if I did not capture all the activity.  Also, there are buyers with offers on multiple shortsale homes and they aren’t going to close on more than one of them.  Showing all the homes that are available and in some stage of closing vs those that close each month helps mitigate this factor. 

San Diego Home Sales - Inventory Levels

Note: Inventory is calculated using a 12 month average of sales.

At first look, the graph doesn’t provide much interesting information.  But when you look at the % change in inventory, you can see that it started to rise in the second half of last year.  While this is akin to saying “things are getting better because we are losing fewer jobs every month,” it is a start of a change.  It shows that inventory is reaching an equilibrium on its own and the creates the possibilty that when the stimulus and tax credit expire, we may see inventory start to climb on its own – with or without the banks releaseing foreclosures.

Monday Morning Coffee – Politics as Usual

Last modified on 2010-02-28 20:21:31 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee

Delaying Foreclosures to Get Re-Elected

February 28, 2010

Good morning,

I hope you had a nice weekend.  We had the open house for our Rancho Bernardo office on Friday afternoon and had a nice turnout.  Thank you to everyone who stopped by.  After being cooped up in the house Saturday, it was nice getting out for a walk with Zach before going to the office on Sunday.  Most of Sunday was spent getting data ported over to our new web site which should be up and running by the end of the week.  Things are getting really busy and with the typical spring increase in activity coupled with ramping up the new office and switching over all our web sites, sleep seems to be  a luxury right now.  Very glad the team is running smoothly right now – speaking of team, Cori is doing well enough in her recovery from the multiple back surgeries that she is back handling our property management again.  It is nice to have her involved again.

A couple of quick notes on the market.  Things seem a little slower now than they were a couple of months ago.  Not so much that homes aren’t selling, but instead of 7-8 offers, we are getting 1 or 2.  It could just be that everyone bought when they thought the tax credit was expiring, but it could also be the start of a trend.

I saw an article last week that didn’t make sense.  The headline was: Obama May Prohibit Home-Loan Forelcosures Without HAMP Review.  I know some of you out there are going to make that silly argument about that Constitution thingy we studied in school, but I think there is a clause they didn’t tell us about where the President can ignore certain parts of it if he really needs to.  The effect of a HAMP review would be to delay the foreclosures for about three months (plus another three while they get the systems in place to process everything), so another 6 months of artificially tight supply.

Then, another piece fell into place on Friday.  A colleague of mine who does a lot of work with the foreclosure departments at many large banks and loan servicers was told that the banks are being pressured to keep their foreclosures off the market until after the mid-term elections.  That made me wonder if maybe the HAMP review proposal was designed to keep the foreclosures from hitting the market until after the election in November.  

Ok, so I went back and did a quick re-read of that same Constitution we slept through in high school.  And guess what?  The whole ”ignore sections of this document if they are inconvenient to your current crises or desire to be re-elected” clause never made it in there. 

I know I am making light of a bad situation, but I think that we ought to consult the original rule book every once and awhile to make sure we are still playing the right game.

Ok, enough on the whole Government hijacking the country theme.  Let’s talk about a positive!

We’ve got a great new listing in 4S Ranch.  This home has 4 bedroom suites (1 downstairs), a loft, and a great layout for the growing family.  Due to allergies of one of the children, almost every room has engineered wood flooring and the house is spotless.  If you know anyone wanting to move into the Poway School District, please shoot them over to the site.

We have a couple more new ones, but the virtual tours are not ready yet, so I will have them next week – along with the new web site!

Enjoy the Coffee!!!

Bad Temper

There once was a little boy who had a bad temper. His father gave him a bag of nails and told him that every time he lost his temper, he must hammer a nail into the back of the fence.

The first day, the boy had driven 37 nails into the fence. Over the next few weeks, as he learned to control his anger, the number of nails hammered daily gradually dwindled down. He discovered it was easier to hold his temper than to drive those nails into the fence.

Finally the day came when the boy didn’t lose his temper at all. He told his father about it and the father suggested that the boy now pull out one nail for each day that he was able to hold his temper. The days passed and the boy was finally able to tell his father that all the nails were gone.

The father took his son by the hand and led him to the fence. He said, “You have done well, my son, but look at the holes in the fence. The fence will never be the same. When you say things in anger, they leave a scar just like this one. You can put a knife in a man and draw it out. It won’t matter how many times you say I’m sorry the wound is still there. A verbal wound is as bad as a physical one.”

 Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

Welcome to Voak Homes

Last modified on 2010-02-28 18:00:50 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

We are a high caliber team of Real Estate professionals dedicated to helping you with your Real Estate needs. Whether you are a buyer, seller or investor, Scott and his team have the expertise to help. As a former CEO with a strong background in systems and marketing, Scott has assembled a team of agents, marketing talent, property managers and transaction managers to make sure your real estate needs are met flawlessly. The team specializes in marketing homes in San Diego and southern Riverside Counties. Because of this expertise, we are being increasing utilized by banks to help sell their foreclosed property. This in turn has proven to be valuable to our investor clients who get the first word on what is coming down the pipeline. Our buyer’s agents are specialists in the areas they work so that they can answer your questions about schools, shopping and whatever else is important to you.

Monday Morning Coffee – One West Bank and the FDIC

Last modified on 2010-02-22 20:16:15 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee

One West Bank & The FDIC

February 22, 2010

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  As I am typing, the sky has opened up on another rain storm in San Diego.  This could complicate things as we have 3 new listings we need to shoot photos for on Tuesday (that’s called a teaser!)  I am going to give you a couple of quick notes and let you click through for more information.  But first – HAPPY BIRTHDAY CORI!  That’s right, my wife turns, well let’s just say younger than me today.  We are looking forward to going out with our friends John and Jean to celebrate tomorrow night.

Secondly, I am VERY HAPPY to announce that I have added Adriana Amon to my team as a buyers’ agent.  Adriana lives a long stone’s throw away from me in 4S Ranch and she has a strong background as a lender prior to stepping into her agent shoes two years ago.  She is very involved in the community and we have served together on charitable foundations in the past.  I was looking for someone who combined a love for real estate with a commitment to the community and for the 4S Ranch and Del Sur areas, she was the only person I considered (so good thing she accepted!)  We are happy to have her on board and look forward to great things.

Ok,  a couple of quick points on the real estate market:

• You may have seen a video last week being sent around that was done by a couple of mortgage brokers that ripped the FDIC for selling the assets of Indy mac to One West Bank.  The terms they allege are pretty bad as One West received a guarantee that the FDIC would cover loses on every loan and the losses were calculated from the original loan balance and not what One West paid for them.  The video is here.
• The FDIC took the unusual step of answering the video as it was spreading viraly.  Their response is here.
• Then, the brokers ran a response to the response which is here.

My thoughts on this are that One West did receive a great deal and I don’t like the fact that some of the One West senior management were the same people that helped cause this crash in the first place.  However, we also have to consider that the FDIC needs to get rid of the assets of these failed banks and there are not a lot of people walking around with the experience to run this type of bank nor the access to cash needed to make this purchase.  Because of these two factors, whomever bought the assets was going to have to get a great deal (if you know a good banker, and have a couple hundred million dollars you can get a hold of, you might get a similar deal).  That said, I think it is disgusting that the bank then insisted that the  borrowers doing the short sale sign a promissory note to complete the sale – the bank was not going to take a loss at all, saddling the defaulted homeowner with a permanent anchor as they try and swim to shore is inexcusable.

My second topic is on short sales.  We are finding the following is happening:

•  There is a lot of agents that are marketing themselves as ”short sale specialists” and are doing more harm than good.  These agents are listing homes 20% under market in order to drive a bunch of offers they can take to the bank.  The problem is, that banks are getting tired of agents underselling homes and are suspicious that the buyer may be related to either the agent or the seller.  Therefore, they come back with a higher counter or just foreclose.  Unfortunately, the house sits on the market for the 6-9 months the agent is trying to get the short sale approved and brings down the value of all the homes around it.  I spoke to one agent this weekend who had done this (and received so many calls she finally would only schedule appointments by text) and her position was that she wasn’t worried about the neighborhood but only about her client.  What she didn’t realize is that this is a tactic that doesn’t w ork anymore and only hurts everyone involved.   I think as agents, we have the responsibility to do the best we can for our clients and that we can do that in a way that doesn’t destroy neighborhood values.  However, we have very low standards of entry into real estate and not all agents share this view.  If you know someone thinking of a short sale, let them know that the banks are not blindly accepting offers significantly below market price and if they just list slightly below market, they will get the offers they need.
• We have noticed a big change in lender negotiating of short sales in the last 6 weeks.  Lenders are insisting on seeing owners IRA and 401k statements even though they cannot legally go after that money.  The strategy the banks are using is that if they own the second loan and turn down the short sale causing the first lender to foreclose, the second loan can chase the borrower for the money they have lost (as long as it isn’t purchase money).  They are betting that the borrower will dip into their retirement for a portion of the loan in exchange for not being chased for years. 
• While this is troubling, I don’t find it unethical by the banks.  After all, the borrower promised to pay the loan back and the bank can negotiate as hard as they want – just make sure you have a good negotiator on your side if you are looking at a short sale.
• I believe we are at the beginning of a trend where the banks are going to be harder on defaulted borrowers.  I think that initially they were fearful that the Obama led government would come down hard on them if they did not cooperate with loan modification programs.  But now that the Home Affordable Program is looking like a pretty solid failure and Obama has lost a lot of his political power, I think the banks are getting bolder in going after people who owe them money and are not paying.  Make sure you have a good legal and negotiating team on your side when taking on your bank.

Ok, we have some new listings coming out this week, but I will wait until we have photos to show you – weather permitting, that will be next Monday.

So, enjoy the Coffee!  This time it is once again by way of my Dad in Arizona (and no, I did not check it on Snopes, it is a good story regardless!)

RED MARBLES

I was at the corner grocery store buying some early potatoes.  I noticed a small boy, delicate of bone and feature, ragged but clean, hungrily appraising a basket of freshly picked green peas. 

With loving gentleness she lifted the lifeless fingers of her deceased husband. Resting underneath were three exquisitely shined red marbles. 

I was at the corner grocery store buying some early potatoes.  I noticed a small boy, delicate of bone and feature, ragged but clean, hungrily appraising a basket of freshly picked green peas. I paid for my potatoes but was also drawn to the display of fresh green peas. I am a pushover for creamed peas and new potatoes. Pondering the peas, I couldn’t help overhearing the conversation between Mr. Miller (the store owner) and the ragged boy next to me. ’Hello Barry, how are you today?’ ’H'lo , Mr. Miller. Fine, thank ya. Jus’ admirin’ them peas. They sure look good.’ ’They are good, Barry. How’s your Ma?’ ’Fine. Gittin’ stronger alla’ time.’ ’Good. Anything I can help you with?’ ’No, Sir. Jus’ admirin’ them peas.’ ’Would you like to take some home ?’ asked Mr.. Miller. ’No, Sir. Got nuthin’ to pay for ‘em with.’ ’Well, what have you to trade me for some of those peas?’ ’All I got’s my prize mar ble here.’ ’Is that right? Let me see it’ said Miller.. ’Here ’tis. She’s a dandy.’ ’I can see that.. Hmmmmm, only thing is this one is blue and I sort of go for red. Do you have a red one like this at home ?’ the store owner asked. ’Not zackley but almost..’ ’Tell you what. Take this sack of peas home with you and next trip this way let me look at that red marble’.. Mr. Miller told the boy. ’Sure will. Thanks Mr. Miller.’ Mrs. Miller, who had been standing nearby, came over to help me.. With a smile she said, ‘There are two other boys like him in our community, all three are in very poor circumstances. Jim just loves to bargain with them for peas, apples, tomatoes, or whatever. When they come back with their red marbles, and they always do, he decides he doesn’t like red after all and he sends them home with a bag of produce for a green marble or an orange one, when they come on their next trip to the store..’ I left the store smiling to m yself, impressed with this man. A short time later I moved to Colorado , but I never forgot the story of this man, the boys, and their bartering for marbles. Several years went by, each more rapid than the previous one. Just recently I had occasion to visit some old friends in that Idaho community and while I was there learned that Mr. Miller had died. They were having his visitation that evening and knowing my friends wanted to go, I agreed to accompany them. Upon arrival at the mortuary we fell into line to meet the relatives of the deceased and to offer whatever words of comfort we could. Ahead of us in line were three young men. One was in an army uniform and the other two wore nice haircuts, dark suits and white shirts….all very professional looking. They approached Mrs. Miller, standing composed and smiling by her husband’s casket. Each of the young men hugged her, kissed her on the cheek, spoke briefly with her, and moved on to the casket.. Her misty lig ht blue eyes followed them as, one by one; each young man stopped briefly and placed his own warm hand over the cold pale hand in the casket. Each left the mortuary awkwardly, wiping his eyes. Our turn came to meet Mrs. Miller. I told her who I was and reminded her of the story from those many years ago and what she had told me about her husband’s bartering for marbles. With her eyes glistening, she took my hand and led me to the casket. ’Those three young men who just left were the boys I told you about. They just told me how they appreciated the things Jim ‘traded’ them. Now, at last, when Jim could not change his mind about colour or size…..they came to pay their debt.’ ’We’ve never had a great deal of the wealth of this world,’ she confided, ‘but right now, Jim would consider himself the richest man in Idaho.’ With loving gentleness she lifted the lifeless fingers of her deceased husband. Resting underneath were three exquisitely shined red marbles. 

Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

Monday Morning Coffee – How does Greece affect your mortgage?

Last modified on 2010-02-14 19:51:44 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee

Greece Defaulting Could Ripple into Your Mortgage

February 14, 2010

Good morning,

I hope you had a very nice Valentines Day.  We celebrated a day early and enjoyed a quiet night at the Rancho Bernardo Inn (no 6:00 am wake-up!)  I’ve been reading a lot of various “experts” talk about what direction the market is going to go.  What I have found is the stock analyists in general say we’re going up (they sell stocks, so that makes sense).  People in the bond market say we’re going down (also makes sense as they want to sell bonds).  People selling gold, well they’ve been saying the end is near since just about the begining.  So, I don’t have any answers at this point, but I sure don’t feel very comfortable with rising debt, Greece potentially defaulting and the end of the stimulous around the corner.  My guess is that the Fed steps in and extends (although at about 1/2 the rate) the purchase of mortgages in an effort to provide a soft landing for the real estate market.

I was spending some time trying to write out in easy terms how we got into this mess (mostly hoping it would help me see how we were going to get out of it).  After about 6 hours, a client showed me a very cool web site (if he had come in the day before, I could have saved the 6 hours!).  This is the best description I have seen for how we arrived where we are today, and it is done at about the 8th grade level.

We have a new site up for our listing in the Garden Gate community of 4S Ranch.  We started showing this 4 bedroom, 2300+ sf home yesterday and currently have one offer in.  If you know someone who would be interested, please have them call me!

We also have a great 3 bedroom condo in Pacific Beach for rent.  It is located on Crown Point with a view of the water.

That’s it for this week.  Enjoy the coffee!

Just Five More Minutes
  by: Author Unknown, Source Unknown

While at the park one day, a woman sat down next to a man on a bench near a playground.

“That’s my son over there,” she said, pointing to a little boy in a red sweater who was gliding down the slide.

“He’s a fine looking boy” the man said. “That’s my daughter on the bike in the white dress.”

Then, looking at his watch, he called to his daughter. “What do you say we go, Melissa?”

Melissa pleaded, “Just five more minutes, Dad. Please? Just five more minutes.”

The man nodded and Melissa continued to ride her bike to her heart’s content. Minutes passed and the father stood and called again to his daughter. “Time to go now?”

Again Melissa pleaded, “Five more minutes, Dad. Just five more minutes.”

The man smiled and said, “OK.”

“My, you certainly are a patient father,” the woman responded.

The man smiled and then said, “Her older brother Tommy was killed by a drunk driver last year while he was riding his bike near here. I never spent much time with Tommy and now I’d give anything for just five more minutes with him. I’ve vowed not to make the same mistake with Melissa.

She thinks she has five more minutes to ride her bike. The truth is, I get Five more minutes to watch her play.”

Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

Monday Morning Coffee – Short Sell and Keep Your Home

Last modified on 2010-02-08 19:42:38 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee

Short Sale Alternative

February 8, 2010

Good morning.  I hope you had a nice weekend and enjoyed the Super Bowl (in which case you don’t live in Indianapolis).  We had a busy week which included both a positive and a negative short sale experience.  Banks are starting to be more aggressive in seeking additional funds from sellers trying to short sell houses if they think they can get it and they are also less willing to delay foreclosure if they think foreclosing is in their best interests.   Details are long and probably of little interest to most of you, but if you are considering a short sale, let me know and I will fill you in.

Speaking of short sales, I have an exciting alternative for those of you who might be stuck in a situation where you could lose your home.  I have an investor who is willing to either buy your home in a short sale and rent it back to you for 3 years until you can buy it back from him (at the same price he paid) or, help you buy a different home after you short sell yours.  I met with him two weeks ago on this program and while it will not work for everyone, it will work for some.  His goal is cash flow, so the way the program works is that you pay all his loan costs, taxes, maintenance, etc. (once he buys the home, he doesn’t put any more into it) plus a monthly fee to him.  The numbers are somewhat complicated, but if you are in a home that is worth about 35-40% less than what you owe and have a good income, he might be able to help you.  If so, shoot me an email and I will get back to you.

We have one new home this week.  It is a short sale in the Gianni complex at 4S Ranch.  It is a 3 bedroom condo with very nice upgrades.  The seller is asking $399k.

That’s it, enjoy the Coffee!

Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

Monday Morning Coffee – Bailout Shakeout?

Last modified on 2010-01-31 19:30:32 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee

Is the Stimulus just Delaying Another Housing Crash?

January 31, 2010

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  We had another week of fighting colds, but did manage to be fairly productive.  I was hoping to spend some time last week researching the issue of inflation vs deflation and appreciate the reports that many of you sent.  However, since two of them were over 70 pages, I didn’t get through everything.  I did find a couple of things that were interesting, one relating to the economy in general and the other specifically to the bail out.

The first was a one line quote that was so simple yet made a ton of sense.  It is often quoted that consumer spending is 70% of the economy (before the recent government stimulous).  Everyone is waiting for the consumers to start spending.  The author of this article made the point that “Consumers don’t spend.  Producers do.”  The point of his article was that consumers spent in the past because they could run up credit and use their homes as ATMs.  In the future, they are going to have to have jobs so they can pay down the bills from previous spending and then they will spend.  With over 10% unemployment (and those employed trying to pay down debts), the author’s point is it is unlikely that the 70% of our economy that is consumer driven is going to come back soon.

Relating to the bail out, an independant watchdog at the Treasury Department said that the $700B bailout might have stopped a meltdown last year, but have put us in a position for a larger meltdown as the companies that were “to big to fail” are now bigger and taking more risks because they know the government will bail them out.  Specifically in the housing area, over 90% of the loans originated lated year are backed by the government.  Which means if they fail, it isn’t private investors on the hook, but the US tax payer.  Based on the article, the only reason the market has rebounded is the massive government subsidies and tax breaks for mortgages.  It contends that once this ends, prices may fall to 8-10% below the lows of last spring.  Yikes – I think I’m going back to bed for another week.

I will spend some time this week to go through all the deflation/inflation reports.

We did have a productive week though.  We listed three new homes and put one into escrow.  In addition to the three new ones, I want to highlight one from last week again.  The homes:

Silent Short Sale – This is a 3 bedroom plus loft and office with a pool.  It is on the north side of 4S Ranch and we have one person interested in it now, but would like to have 2 or 3 to show this weekend.  We will take the best offer to the bank, so there is a chance to get a good deal on this one as it may go slightly under $700k.

5 Bedroom with a pool and a view!  We will be putting this on just after the Super Bowl.  Photos will be later this week, so I might have a site for you next Monday.  It is 3990sf and is in the Terreno development with a huge yard and sunset views.  It will be initially priced in the low to mid $900k range and is a truly unique property.

4 Bedroom Gated Community – This is a very nice plan 3 home in Garden Gate.  It is on the outside, so there is nobody behind it.  It is extremely nice inside and features the oversized island in the kitchen.  There is a full bedroom and bath downstairs.  This is a normal sale and will go fast.  We have not set pricing on it yet, but it is most likely going to go in the low to mid $600k range.

Short Sale Condo – A 3 bedroom in the Gianni complex across from Monterey Ridge Elementary.  The short sale may take some time, but if you are patient it is a good chance to get a 3 bedroom for hopefully under $400k.

 That’s it.  Enjoy the Coffee!  This one was sent to me by a client who just moved out of the area.  I was going to save it for a holiday, but – why wait.  Thanks to Shanzar for sending it to me.

Written by an Australian Dentist  

To Kill an American

You probably missed this in the rush of news, but there was actually a report that someone in Pakistan had published in a newspaper, an offer of a reward to anyone who killed an American, any American.  

So an Australian dentist wrote an editorial the following day to let everyone know what an American is . So they would know when they found one. (Good one, mate!!!!)

‘An American is English, or French, or Italian, Irish, German, Spanish , Polish, Russian or Greek. An American may also be Canadian, Mexican, African, Indian, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Australian, Iranian, Asian, or Arab, or Pakistani or Afghan.

An American may also be a Comanche, Cherokee, Osage, Blackfoot, Navaho, Apache, Seminole or one of the many other tribes known as native Americans.

An American is Christian , or he could be Jewish, or Buddhist, or Muslim. In fact, there are more Muslims in America than in Afghanistan . The only difference is that in America they are free to worship as each of them chooses.

An American is also free to believe in no religion….. For that he will answer only to God, not to the government, or to armed thugs claiming to speak for the government and for God.

An American lives in the most prosperous land in the history of the world.
The root of that prosperity can be found in the Declaration of Independence , which recognizes the God given right of each person to the pursuit of happiness.

An American is generous. Americans have helped out just about every other nation in the world in their time of need, never asking a thing in return………

When Afghanistan was over-run by the Soviet army 20 years ago, Americans came with arms and supplies to enable the people to win back their country!

As of the morning of September 11, Americans had given more than any other nation to the poor in Afghanistan ….
The national symbol of America , The Statue of Liberty , welcomes your tired and your poor, the wretched refuse of your teeming shores, the homeless, tempest tossed. These in fact are the people who built America  

Some of them were working in the Twin Towers the morning of September 11, 2001 earning a better life for their families. It’s been told that the World Trade Center victims were from at least 30 different countries, cultures, and first languages, including those that aided and abetted the terrorists.
 So you can try to kill an American if you must.. Hitler did. So did General Tojo , and Stalin , and Mao Tse-Tung, and other blood-thirsty tyrants in the world. But, in doing so you would just be killing yourself . Because Americans are not a particular people from a particular place. They are the embodiment of the human spirit of freedom. Everyone who holds to that spirit, everywhere, is an American.

Have Great Week!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189

First Look at February Numbers – Down but with a Bright Spot

Last modified on 2008-03-02 22:37:09 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Looking at preliminary numbers for February (they will change a little as agents report closings over this next week) shows a some continuing negative news, but with a very strong positive change.  First of all, let’s get the negative out of the way.  The number of homes closed in February was down in the county.  At this point (9:30 Sunday night), agents are reporting 1,207 sales throughout the county.  I figure that by the time the stragglers report, we will be close to 1,300 which is even with January and about 30% bellow last February.  The good news is that there was a nice increase in the number of homes in escrow which bodes well for climbing back above the 2,000 home sales for the month of March.

This coincides with the increase noted by agents (and builders I have spoken with) in the  number of buyers coming around to open houses and through builder sales offices.  A lot of these buyers are indicating that they are waiting for the new conforming limits to be available in loans (likely to be mid-April) before they purchase, so they haven’t yet resulted in escrows being opened.  However, the fact that they are out looking is a good sign that this summer might not be as bad as a lot of the pessimists think.

Monday Morning Coffee – What happens when the Fed stops buying Mortgages?

Last modified on 2010-01-17 19:16:26 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee

What Happens when the Fed stops buying MSBE’s?

Januray 17, 2010

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  We were very busy as we had 18 friends over for dinner on Friday night and went to the San Diego Association of Realtors Installation Dinner where our friend Mark Marquez was installed as President on Saturday night.  So now, it is a race for bed!

Updated my blog earlier today with a post on what is going to happen when the Fed stops buying MSBEs in March.  The short version is that the market will slow, interest rates will rise and they will step in again to resume purchases, but on a smaller scale with rates up about 1% over the year.  The long version is here.

We have a new couple of new homes this week, but due to lingering issues with the office move, I do not have single property sites up for them yet.  Both are short sales:

Palomino Plan 3 in 4S – 4550sf 6 bedroom home with a 4 car garage on a very large lot.  It is priced at $900k.  We have offers on this and will probably be off the market early in the week.

Canyon Ridge Plan 2 in 4S – 3600+ sf 4 bedroom home with an loft and an office over the garage.  This is also a large lot and has a pool (but there is an issue with underground water that needs to be dealt with or at least acknowledged).  There are no showings on this until next weekend when we will have an open house (owners are packing).  It is priced at $800k.

That’s it – I will have single property sites for them next week.

Enjoy the Coffee!

This week I am revisiting a story I posted last year for an update.  It’s the one about the autistic basketball player and hits home for Cori and I as Zach’s Fragile-X puts him on the autistism spectum.  As he is getting older, his issues are becoming more pronounced and we gain more respect every day for both our own son and other families that navigate the world of autism/Fragile-X every day.  He is almost 4, and although I prefer he take up soccer to basketball (due to my own limited skills), any way he can have a moment like this would be worth it.  Videos like this are a great source of hope for parents who have handicapped children.

Have a Great Week!

Scott

Monday Morning Coffee – Final 2009 San Diego Home Sale Numbers

Last modified on 2010-01-10 18:59:14 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee

Final 2009 San Diego Home Sale Numbers

Januray 10, 2010

Good morning!

I hope you had a great weekend.  Last week was Week 2 of The Move.  Getting into our new office has been interesting.  We finally had internet up on Wednesday.  Phones are expected in sometime this week…  The highlight was sitting in the office at 4:30 on Wednesday and thinking the entire world behind me was on fire only to turn around and realize we have an exceptional sunset view.  Of course with my limited IPhone photo capability I had to post the picture on Facebook.  The lowlight was — the phones.

Looking at year end on a couple of levels, in the county, inventory remained tight at 3.1 months sales.  Closings were up 24% over 2008 and inventory was down 44% (sales for December and inventory at year end).  Breaking inventory down a little further and we find that:

• <$650k there are 2.2mos of inventory
• $650k – $800k there is 4.7mos of inventory
• $800k – $1M    there is 6 mos of inventory
• $1M – $1.5M there is 9.6 mos of inventory
• >$1.5M there is 2 years of inventory

This is consistent with the thought I have put forth that the market under $650k is being supported by the tax credit and the Fed buying MBSEs, both of which are set to end this spring.   There is now talk that the Fed will continue (or resume after a short break) purchasing the mortgage securities.  Even if they don’t, it isn’t likely that the <$650k inventory will rush out to 9.6 mos, but we could see total inventory slide to 6 mos and prices dip again.

Taking a more indepth look at my favorite neighborhood (4S Ranch due to a combination of factors that makes it a very good indicator for California + I live here), here are the quarter highlights:

• Attached
  •  Sales were up 300% over a year ago 40% over Q3.  This is easily explained as people were rushing to beat the previous expiration of the tax credit. 
  • Prices were 1-2% lower than a year ago but2-3% higher than the previous quarter.
  • 2/3 of all sales were distressed (foreclosures or short sales).  If such a high percentage were not distressed, we would have seen a significant price increase.
• Detached Condos
  • Sales up 80% in quantity over a year ago (small sample size)
  • Prices up 2-3% over a year ago.
  • 74% normal sales vs 74% distressed in the third quarter.
• Detached Single Family
  • Volume up 11% over a year ago.
  • Prices up on the smaller homes (<2750sf) by 12% over a year ago but basically even at larger sizes.
  • 28% of sales were distressed.

I am going to do more analysis later in the week, but my gut tells me that the tax credit and the mortgage purchases by the Fed have made about an 8-10% difference in the market this year.

Ok, that’s enough analysis.  One new home this week.  This is a 4 bedroom with an office and a synthetic putting green!  It is on the north side of 4S Ranch and just hit the market on Thursday.  Happily, this is not a short sale but the previous owners, Fiona and Scott, left town for a very solid east coast opportunity (my thought is solid like the block of ice they are going to have to chip off the windshield, but hey, I like my 63 degree winters).

I will have a 4550 sf short sale home next week and am working on a couple of smaller ones for later this month.

Enjoy the Coffee – this week is one you may have seen and probably have heard about, but it is a great reminder that you need to treat every client with courtesy and respect – especially if they play a guitar and sing.

                            A Lesson in Customer Service…

A musician named Dave Carroll recently had difficulty with United
Airlines. United apparently damaged his treasured Taylor guitar ($3500) during a flight.
Dave spent over 9 months trying to get United to pay
for damages caused by baggage handlers to his custom Taylor guitar.
During his final exchange with the United Customer Relations Manager, he stated that he was left with no choice other than to create a music video for YouTube exposing their lack of cooperation.
The Manager responded : “Good luck with that one, pal”.

So he posted a retaliatory video on YouTube. The video has since
received over 5.5 million hits. United Airlines contacted the musician and attempted settlement in exchange for pulling the video.
Naturally his response was: “Good luck with that one, pal”.

Taylor Guitars sent the musician 2 new custom guitars in
appreciation for the product recognition from the video that has lead to a sharp increase in orders.
Here’s the video …..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YGc4zOqozo&NR=1

Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189

Monday Morning Coffee – Happy New Year!!

Last modified on 2010-01-03 02:38:11 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee

Look at Foreclosure and Default Rates for Q3 2009

January 3, 2010

Good morning,

I hope you had a great Holiday and New Year.  Cori and I were planning on going out New Year’s Eve, but life got in the way of the party.  So, as we were sitting home waiting for the New Year, I was drinking a Guiness and trying to figure the best way to salute 2009 as it made its exit.  Then I remembered a very eloquent speach an Irish friend of mine (I was drinking a Guiness) once made that summed up my feelings for 2009 pretty well, “Piss Off!”  (He was acutally pretty drunk at the time, and we were a lot younger, and it was in reference to a girl in a bar and things weren’t going well for him and…) Anyway, it seemed to kind of fit everything that happened in 2009.  Then I congratulated 2010 because 2009 set a pretty low standard to beat.  I went to bed only to have Zach wake me up at 3:30 am and make me realize that things aren’t going to change overnight (but at 3:30 am I was thankful it was only 1 Guiness).

 Anyway, here’s hoping 2010 is a great year for all of us.

Late in December, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision (imagine a lot of accountants that don’t get invited to anyone’s New Years Eve party) released their report on mortgages, foreclosures and other fun stuff for the third quarter of 2009.  (Since I took the last week off from MMC, you had to know this was going to be a long one.)  The report is 49 pages and I can send it to you if you want it.  Key points were:

• Non performing loans are up to 12.8% of all mortgages.
• Almost 1/3 of all option ARM loans are delinquent.
• Home retention actions were up significantly (driven by Home Affordable) in the quarter.
• For every 6 homes that were 60 days late or in foreclosure, there was 1 person who received a mortgage modification or started a trial period plan.
• The most positive sign was that for loan modifications done in the second quarter of 2009, only 18.7% were 60 days late a quarter later (down from 30.7%) This is due to the fact that more modifications than before are lowering the monthly payment by 20% or more.   (I know, it’s kind of like being happy we only lost another 400,000 jobs last month). 
• For 2008, if loan modifications resulted in a payment that decreased by 20% or more, 38.6% of the loans were 60 days or more delinquent by the end of the third quarter of 2009.  If the payment decreased by less than 10% a month, 55.1% of the loans were 60 or more days delinquent.
• Completed foreclosures increased 11.9% and short sales by 22.4% over the second quarter showing that the banks are starting to process more of both.
• Government guaranteed loans (FHA, VA, etc.) perform worse than other loans with 17% of all these loans at least 30 days delinquent. 83% of these loans were securitized by Ginnie Mae.
• There are 3 times as many government guaranteed loans in serious default as there are in foreclosure, indicated there will be a continuing increase in these foreclosures.  (It is also important to note that much of the growth we are seeing right now in the market is because of the easy availability of FHA loans – I hope that the newer loans being issued are not showing the same risk level as those writen 2-3 years ago.)
• Fannie and Freddie loans are mostly Prime loans and are performing better than the rest of the market with only 7.9% 30+ days delinquent.
• An interesting thing to note is that even though prime loans have only a 3.6% serious delinquency rate (60+ days late) compared to 20.1% for subprime, the number of prime loans that are seriously delinquent is 838,083 vs 558,419 for subprime.  The serious delinquency rate for prime loans grew 117.5% in the past year.  The sheer number of prime loans out there means its performance will dwarf anything that happens in the subprime or Alt-A loan arena.

Ok, that’s enough cheerful news to start the year.  On a better note, we had one new listing we put on the market last week and before I could get the single property site up, we had 4 offers and ended up with 10.  We should go into escrow on Wednesday and it will sell for more than it will appraise for (it is under $500k). 

 I will have a 4 bedroom 3,200+sf home for you next week in 4S.

That’s it for now, but before the coffee, I wanted to share a cool project my sister was involved in last October.  She went down to Guatemala and helped fit people with prosthetics (she’s a PT).  There’s a link to the program video for anyone that’s interested (she’s in the orangish shirt) - and even if you aren’t interested, I’m still proud of her for doing it.

Enjoy the Coffee!

The Praying Hands

Back in the fifteenth century, in a tiny village near Nuremberg, lived a family with eighteen children. Eighteen! In order merely to keep food on the table for this mob, the father and head of the household, a goldsmith by profession, worked almost eighteen hours a day at his trade and any other paying chore he could find in the neighborhood. Despite their seemingly hopeless condition, two of Albrecht Durer the Elder’s children had a dream. They both wanted to pursue their talent for art, but they knew full well that their father would never be financially able to send either of them to Nuremberg to study at the Academy.

        After many long discussions at night in their crowded bed, the two boys finally worked out a pact. They would toss a coin. The loser would go down into the nearby mines and, with his earnings, support his brother while he attended the academy. Then, when that brother who won the toss completed his studies, in four years, he would support the other brother at the academy, either with sales of his artwork or, if necessary, also by laboring in the mines.

        They tossed a coin on a Sunday morning after church. Albrecht Durer won the toss and went off to Nuremberg. Albert went down into the dangerous mines and, for the next four years, financed his brother, whose work at the academy was almost an immediate sensation. Albrecht’s etchings, his woodcuts, and his oils were far better than those of most of his professors, and by the time he graduated, he was beginning to earn considerable fees for his commissioned works.

        When the young artist returned to his village, the Durer family held a festive dinner on their lawn to celebrate Albrecht’s triumphant homecoming. After a long and memorable meal, punctuated with music and laughter, Albrecht rose from his honored position at the head of the table to drink a toast to his beloved brother for the years of sacrifice that had enabled Albrecht to fulfill his ambition. His closing words were, “And now, Albert, blessed brother of mine, now it is your turn. Now you can go to Nuremberg to pursue your dream, and I will take care of you.”

        All heads turned in eager expectation to the far end of the table where Albert sat, tears streaming down his pale face, shaking his lowered head from side to side while he sobbed and repeated, over and over, “No …no …no …no.”

        Finally, Albert rose and wiped the tears from his cheeks. He glanced down the long table at the faces he loved, and then, holding his hands close to his right cheek, he said softly, “No, brother. I cannot go to Nuremberg. It is too late for me. Look … look what four years in the mines have done to my hands! The bones in every finger have been smashed at least once, and lately I have been suffering from arthritis so badly in my right hand that I cannot even hold a glass to return your toast, much less make delicate lines on parchment or canvas with a pen or a brush. No, brother …
for me it is too late.”

        More than 450 years have passed. By now, Albrecht Durer’s hundreds of masterful portraits, pen and silver-point sketches, watercolors, charcoals, woodcuts, and copper engravings hang in every great museum in the world, but the odds are great that you, like most people, are familiar with only one of Albrecht Durer’s works. More than merely being familiar with it, you very well may have a reproduction hanging in your home or office.

        One day, to pay homage to Albert for all that he had sacrificed, Albrecht Durer painstakingly drew his brother’s abused hands with palms together and thin fingers stretched skyward. He called his powerful drawing simply “Hands,” but the entire world almost immediately opened their hearts to his great masterpiece and renamed his tribute of love “The Praying Hands.”

        The next time you see a copy of that touching creation, take a second look. Let it be your reminder, if you still need one, that no one – no one – - ever makes it alone!

Have a Great YEAR!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189

Monday Morning Coffee – New Office, Crashed Hard Drive and Merry Christmas

Last modified on 2009-12-20 02:24:37 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee

Moving is No Fun!

December 20, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope you all are remembering to slow down and enjoy your families this time of year.  This has been a busy week for us as we received the keys to our new Rancho Bernardo office on Friday.  The internet and furniture should be set up by Tuesday afternoon and we hope to be settled in by the New Year.  It will be nice to move the office out of the house.  The new address is 10815 Rancho Bernardo Rd #390.  If you are in the area, drop in and say “hi”.  Added to the busy job of moving the office, my 2 month old laptop had a hard drive failure on Saturday and Magic Man Eric (if you need an outsourced IT guy in San Diego, let me know – he is great) is recovering what data he can before I take it back tomorrow (if you have sent me an email since Saturday, I have not received it as I am working on an old laptop that doesn’t have Outlook loaded).  So, on top of moving I get to spend a day reloading programs, preferences, etc.

Ok, enough complaining – it really is a great time of year and we are very thankful for everyone’s support again this year.  As I mentioned last week, I did a couple of blog posts on interest rates and the tax credit. If you don’t want to read the posts, the short version is:

I think interest rates will rise significantly in the second quarter of next year and demand will drop off at the same time.  They may both be a drag on the market, but I think that because rates may rise as much as 2% next year, if you are going to buy, buy now and lock in a 30 year loan.  If you have a loan now, refinance and buy down your rate.  I think that in addition to rates going up, we are going to get some inflation.  If you can lock in today’s prices and rates there is a good chance you will look very smart and have a payment that is a much lower percentage of your income in 5 years.

I have not posted my thoughts on interest rates, but will do so in the next week.

No new listings to report – will have some in the New Year.

Since this is a busy week with moving and getting a laptop that works and the more important fact that I want to slow down a bit and enjoy my family (this is the first year Zach is getting the idea of Christmas and he has just about the coolest “Wow!” you’ve ever seen or heard), I am going to skip Monday Morning Coffee next week.  So, this is Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

 Enjoy the Coffee!

The Gift of Forgiveness

by John William Smith

The Christmas of 1949 we didn’t have a tree.

My dad had as much pride as anybody, I suppose, so he wouldn’t just say that we couldn’t afford one.

When I mentioned it, my mother said that we weren’t going to have one this year, that we couldn’t afford one, and even if we could – it was stupid to clutter up your house with a dead tree.

I wanted a tree badly though, and I thought – in my naïve way – that if we had one, everybody would feel better.

Taking Matters into my Own Hands

About three days before Christmas, I was out collecting for my paper route.

It was fairly late – long after dark – it was snowing and very cold.

I went to the apartment building to try to catch a customer who hadn’t paid me for nearly two months – she owed me seven dollars.

 Much to my surprise, she was home.

She invited me in and not only did she pay me, she gave me a dollar tip!

It was a windfall for me – I now had eight whole dollars.

What happened next was totally unplanned.

On the way home, I walked past a Christmas tree lot and the idea hit me.

The selection wasn’t very good because it was so close to the holiday, but there was this one real nice tree.

It had been a very expensive tree and no one had bought it; now it was so close to Christmas that the man was afraid no one would.

He wanted ten dollars for it, but when I – in my gullible innocence – told him I only had eight, he said he might sell it for that.

I really didn’t want to spend the whole eight dollars on the tree, but it was so pretty that I finally agreed.

I dragged it all the way home – about a mile, I think – and I tried hard not to damage it or break off any limbs.

The snow helped to cushion it, and it was still in pretty good shape when I got home.

You can’t imagine how proud and excited I was.

I propped it up against the railing on our front porch and went in.

My heart was bursting as I announced that I had a surprise.

I got Mom and Dad to come to the front door and then I switched on the porch light.

Surprise!!

“Where did you get that tree?” my mother exclaimed.

But it wasn’t the kind of exclamation that indicates pleasure.

“I bought it up on Main Street. Isn’t it just the most perfect tree you ever saw?” I said, trying to maintain my enthusiasm.

“Where did you get the money?” Her tone was accusing and it began to dawn on me that this wasn’t going to turn out as I had planned.

“From my paper route.” I explained about the customer who had paid me.

“And you spent the whole eight dollars on this tree?” she exclaimed.

She went into a tirade about how stupid it was to spend my money on a dumb tree that would be thrown out and burned in a few days.

She told me how irresponsible I was and how I was just like my dad with all those foolish, romantic, noble notions about fairy tales and happy endings and that it was about time I grew up and learned some sense about the realities of life and how to take care of money and spend it on things that were needed and not on silly things.

She said that I was going to end up in the poorhouse because I believe in stupid things like Christmas trees, things that didn’t amount to anything.

I Just Stood There

My mother had never talked to me like that before and I couldn’t believe what I was hearing.

I felt awful and I began to cry.

Finally, she reached out and snapped off the porch light.

“Leave it there,” she said. “Leave that tree there till it rots, so every time we see it, we’ll all be reminded of how stupid the men in this family are.”

Then she stormed up the stairs to her bedroom and we didn’t see her until the next day.

Dad and I brought the tree in and we made a stand for it.

He got out the box of ornaments and we decorated it as best as we could; but men aren’t too good at things like that, and besides, it wasn’t the same without mom.

There were a few presents under it by Christmas day – although I can’t remember a single one of them – but Mom wouldn’t have anything to do with it.

It was the worst Christmas I ever had.

Fast Forward to Today

Judi and I married in August of 1963, and dad died on October 10 of that year. Over the next eight years, we lived in many places. Mom sort of divided up the year – either living with my sister Jary or with us.

In 1971 we were living in Wichita, Kansas – Lincoln was about seven, Brendan was three and Kristen was a baby. Mom was staying with us during the holidays. On Christmas Eve I stayed up very late. I was totally alone with my thoughts, alternating between joy and melancholy, and I got to thinking about my paper route, that tree, what my mother had said to me and how Dad had tried to make things better.

I heard a noise in the kitchen and discovered that it was mom. She couldn’t sleep either and had gotten up to make herself a cup of hot tea – which was her remedy for just about everything. As she waited for the water to boil, she walked into the living room and discovered me there. She saw my open Bible and asked me what I was reading. When I told her, she asked if I would read it to her and I did.

The Truth Comes Out

When the kettle began to whistle, she went and made her tea. She came back, and we started to visit. I told her how happy I was that she was with us for Christmas and how I wished that Dad could have lived to see his grandchildren and to enjoy this time because he always loved Christmas so. It got very quiet for a moment and then she said, “Do you remember that time on Twelve Mile Road when you bought that tree with your paper route money?”

“Yes,” I said, “I’ve just been thinking about it you know.”

She hesitated for a long moment, as though she were on the verge of something that was bottled up so deeply inside her soul that it might take surgery to get it out. Finally, great tears started down her face and she cried, “Oh, son, please forgive me.”

“That time and that Christmas have been a burden on my heart for twenty-five years. I wish your dad were here so I could tell him how sorry I am for what I said. Your dad was a good man and it hurts me to know that he went to his grave without ever hearing me say that I was sorry for that night. Nothing will ever make what I said right, but you need to know that your dad never did have any money sense (which was all too true).

We were fighting all the time – though not in front of you - we were two months behind in our house payments, we had no money for groceries, your dad was talking about going back to Arkansas and that tree was the last straw. I took it all out on you. It doesn’t make what I did right, but I hoped that someday, when you were older, you would understand. I’ve wanted to say something for ever so long and I’m so glad it’s finally out.”

Well, we both cried a little and held each other and I forgave her – it wasn’t hard, you know.

Then we talked for a long time, and I did understand; I saw what I had never seen and the bitterness and sadness that had gathered up in me for all those years gradually washed away.

It was marvelously simple.

The great gifts of this season – or any season – can’t be put under the tree; you can’t wear them or eat them or drive them or play with them. We spend so much time on the lesser gifts – toys, sweaters, jewelry, the mint, anise and dill of Christmas – and so little on the great gifts – understanding, grace, peace and forgiveness. It’s no wonder that the holiday leaves us empty, because when it’s over, the only reminders we have are the dirty dishes and the January bills.

Have a Very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189

Monday Morning Coffee – Slowing down for the Holidays

Last modified on 2009-12-13 02:19:31 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee

December 13, 2009

Good morning,

Hope you had another great weekend – Saturday inside watching movies, staying warm and Sunday enjoying the great weather.  Things have definitely hit “holiday speed” as everything is slowing down.  Two articles in the San Diego press were worth noting last week:

1. The median price was up 22% in November compared to last year for San Diego County.  That is great – but remember that November of last year was when the Sherson Leahman debacle filtered through to home mortgages and most people with mortgages that were over the conforming limits lost their loans.  Therefore the homes that sold were the lower priced homes.  Because of this, the median home was a smaller home last year than this year (median is not the average price of homes, but the price of the average home that sold).
2. Re-finances are hard to get, even for people with equity.  This is important because almost everyone in the business expects the mortgage rates to go up in or shortly after the first quarter when the Fed stops buying Mortgage Backed Securities (A couple of weeks ago I explained how with the Fed buying $14B a week, the banks could offer a low interest rate as they have a guaranteed buyer.  That ends early next year and rates will have to go up to entice foreign governments and extremely welthy people to buy the mortgages – that means the rate you pay will go up.)  Because of this, I think everyone who has equity should seriously look at re-financing your loan now.  I will try and write a more detailed explanation on my blog early in the week.  The blog will be on my site at www.VoakHomes.com

The new listing we have decided to wait until after the new year, so we will have 3 or 4 in the first couple of weeks, but will be slow until then.

That’s it, Enjoy the Coffee – with an Ice Cream Comb.

  The Ice Cream Comb Story

By Rick Beneteau
http://www.RickBeneteau.com

She was three. Just released from a far-away hospital after life threatening brain surgery, ready to take on the world again. I was happy just to have her back. My little “Mr. Clean” (shaven head and hoop earrings) and me driving along to our local mall. Hanging out with dad day.

I recall her words as if it were yesterday.

“Daddy, can I get a treat?”

As she was understandably spoiled (if there is such a thing), I replied “ok honey, but just ONE”.

Her eyes beamed like the Fourth of July in anticipation of that something only she knew at the time.

We drove around to the new end of the mall on the normal seek-and-destroy mission of capturing a parking place. After all, it was Saturday. We landed a fair distance from our destination, and began walking hand-in-hand towards the entrance, her pace gaining momentum with each tiny step. A few feet from the doors she broke loose and ran hands-first into the thick wall of glass, trying with everything she had to swing the big doors open. No luck. With a little assistance, she ‘did it’ and tried the very same thing at the second set of doors.

It was then that I asked her what she wanted for her treat. Without hesitation, she matter-of-factly said “an ice-cream comb from the ice-cream store”. Ok, the goal was set and we were in the mall!

But hold on! What was this? At the end of what was just an ordinary looking lane of retail chain outlets she spied something new—this huge fountain, water shooting who knows how high into the air. The new goal line!

She ran, and I walked (don’t ya just hate it when parents let their kids run wild in public?), and we arrived at the spectacle at about the same time. The turbulent noise was almost deafening.

“Daddy, can I make a wish, can I make a wish?” she screamed as she jumped with the kind of pure joy we’ve all long since forgotten.

“Sure honey, but that will be YOUR TREAT you know” I explained (gotta be firm with these kind of things).

She agreed.

I fumbled around in my pocket and pulled out what I think was a dime (big spender) and placed it in her outstretched hand. She cupped it tightly, closed her eyes and grimaced, formulating her wish. I stared at that little scrunched-up face and said my own kind of prayer of thanks, feeling so blessed to still have this ball of energy in my life. And then like a shooting star, the coin was flung into the foaming water and with it, her wish.

We happily continued our stroll into the familiar section of the mall. An eerie silence ensued, which I was admittedly uncomfortable with. I couldn’t resist breaking it.

“Aren’t you gonna tell daddy what you wished for?”

She retorted “I wished I could get an ice-cream comb”.

I just about lost it right then and there. Couldn’t imagine what the shoppers thought of this lunatic laughing uncontrollably in the middle of a crowded mall. And needless to say, she got her wish, and two treats.

Little did I know then that my beautiful little girl would soon embark on a long road of seizures, surgeries, special schools, medications and end up partially paralyzed on her right side. She never learned to ride a bike.

Today, she is almost seventeen. She cannot use her right hand and walks with a noticeable limp. But she has overcome what life seemed to so cruelly inflict on her. She was teased a lot and always struggled in school, both socially and academically. But each year she showed improvement. She is planning a career in early childhood education. With one year still remaining in high school, her and I, one night not too long ago mapped out all the courses she would need to take in community college. It was her idea. She volunteers weekly at a local hospital, on the children’s floor. She baby-sits a neighbors children five days a week. On her own this year, she stood outside in line for four hours on a cold Canadian January afternoon and enrolled herself, with her own babysitting money, into two courses she felt she would need for college.

You see, to her, failure was never an option.

It would almost be redundant for me to explain why I wanted to share this story with you. She IS my daughter and I carry all those fatherly biases with me wherever I go. But these aside, she is a very exceptional person and one that I admire and have learned a lot from.

It is my sincerest hope that her story will have even a momentary positive impact on you as a human being, a parent, a spouse or even, an entrepreneur.

I’d like to leave you with a closing thought. As human beings, we deserve all the treats, and the multitude of good things that life can offer us. We all have wishes and dreams, AND the power to make them reality. Just simple truths of the universe.

We can wish for, and get, that ice-cream comb.

Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189

Monday Morning Coffee – November Numbers

Last modified on 2009-12-06 02:10:49 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee

First Look at November San Diego Home Sale Numbers

December 6, 2009

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  I promised a quick look at November numbers for San Diego County, so very briefly here it goes:

•  Sales were 2,506 for the county, Up from 1,956 the year before, but down from 3,201 in October (the drop is seasonal and very normal.
• Looking at inventory by price range, it breaks out the following way:
•  
  • Under $400k there are about 7 weeks of inventory
  • Between $400k and $600k there are 2.5 months of inventory
  • Between $600k and $1M there are 4.5 months of inventory
  • Over $1M there is are about 16 months of inventory

I like these numbers a lot better than when we looked four months ago.  At that time the market under $400k had only  2 weeks of inventory and the market over $1M was at 2 years of inventory.  Both numbers are healthier for the long term market.  Although I am worried because the inventory reduction on the high end was not so much due to more sales as it was people pulling their homes off the market.  I will be interested in looking at the numbers again in about another three months when we are through the holidays to see if the inventory rises again at the high end.

We have one new home coming on the market this week.  It is a 3 bedroom 1300 sf home in the Tanglewood subdivision of 4S Ranch.  We are taking photos on Tuesday and should have a site up for next week.  We are going to list the property for $400k.  If anyone wants an early look, let me know.

Enjoy the Coffee!

Love Is Understanding

By Steve Goodier

 You’ve heard it said: “Love is patient and kind.” If love is patient, it may be because love is truly understanding.

 Do you know what the most common craving is among pregnant women? (I’m sure this is factual.) The most common craving among pregnant women is not spicy food, pickles or ice cream. Not even close. It is for MEN to get pregnant.

 Why? Because then they would know what it is like! Then they might be more patient. What most women need during times of cravings, discomfort, swollen ankles and morning sickness is… understanding.

 Much of our conflict is simply misunderstanding. As a new bride, one woman moved into the small home on her husband’s ranch in the mountains. She put a shoe box on a shelf in her closet and asked her husband never to touch it.

For 50 years he left the box alone, until his life partner was old and dying. One day when he was putting their affairs in order, he found the box again and thought it might hold something important.

Opening it, he discovered two doilies and $82,500 in cash. He took the box to her and asked about the contents.

“My mother gave me that box the day we married,” she explained. “She told me to make a doily to help ease my frustrations every time I got mad at you.”

Her husband was touched that in 50 years she’d only been upset enough to make two doilies.

“What’s the $82,500 for?” he asked.

She explained, “Oh, well that’s the money I’ve made selling the doilies.”

Have a Great Week!

 Scott

Monday Morning Coffee – Sub-Prime and Alt-A

Last modified on 0209-11-23 23:36:17 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee

Sub-Prime and Alt-A in California

Good morning,

I hope you had a nice weekend.  Cori and I saw Blind Side this weekend and highly recommend it (if you were in the theater, she was the one crying).  We are looking forward to seeing my dad and step mom who are driving out from AZ tomorrow.  It has been about a year since we have seen them and I am looking forward to it, even though I know they are much more interested in the grandson than the son:-)

I spent a lot of time going through data this week with the goal being to look at all types of mortgages that are currently out there and see what the delinquency rate is and when they are due for interest rate adjustments.  We know from historical data that the following has been true:

 Once a loan is 60 days late, there is a 98% chance that it will be liquidated through a foreclosure, short sale or a loan modification will take place.

• Over the past 2 years, it appears that for every 1 foreclosure or short sale there have been 3 loan modifications.
• Within one year, 58% of all loan modification are 90 days late and since the banks do not do 2 loan modifications on the same loan, at least 58% of the 75% delinquents that were modified the first time around will be liquidated within between 12 and 24 months of first going delinquent.
• Taking those together, once a loan is 60 days late, about 25% of the homes will be liquidated within a year (that’s the longest they are generally taking to process) and 44% (58% x 75%) will be liquidated in the second year.  (I could not find data on the second year after loan modification, most likely because there isn’t enough yet).
• This means that the effects of the mortgage defaults are felt over an extended period.
• These numbers will likely improve over the next couple of years as the Home Affordable modifications do more to reduce principle and payment that previous modifications.  However, there are many that don’t think it will make much difference.  The Home Affordable modifications allow for 5 years before the new loan adjusts towards market interest rates.

 With the above track record, I was hoping to look at all loans that are out there and overlay loan types with when they are adjusting and the forecasted foreclosure/modification rates to get an idea how long until we work through the distressed inventory of homes (and who said I’m not a fun guy to hang out with on a Friday night.)

Unfortunately, I cannot get my hands on all the data.  Those who have it are not giving it up without a lot of dollars and frankly, I think we can get a rough idea with what I did find.   

What I found is available on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Web site (if you want to get really depressed, they have a map showing every county in the country with mortgage, auto, credit and student loan delinquencies).  I was able to download the data for Sub-Prime and Alt-A loans as of June 30 of this year.

 Quick note – Alt-A borrowers have better credit scores than Sub-Prime borrowers and typically longer time periods before adjustable loans re-set which is why you see lower delinquencies.  

So, the first wave of foreclosures that started last year was in the sub-prime market and the next (possibly this summer) is the Alt-A market.  But look at the number in bottom that is bolded – even after the loan mods and foreclosures of the past year 50% of the people in the country with sub-prime loans are delinquent!

I know this is getting long, but a couple more pieces of information on both types of loans, focusing on CA:

Sub-Prime:

• Of the 326,521 sub-prime loans in existence, about 208,000 are adjustable.
• 172,359 of those have already re-set (the introductory interest rate is over).
• There are only about 36,000 homes left to re-set.

Alt-A:

• Of the 613,650 Alt-A loans in existence, about 428,000 are adjustable.
• 181,898 of those have already re-set.
• There are 246,000 homes left to re-set (most of them more than 2 years out)
• Because of better credit scores, more Alt-A homeowners were offered negative ammortization loans which will be harder to modify because they have no equity.

 At least in California there is likely to be more damage in the second wave as the Sub-prime loans that were modified the first time default again combined with a larger pool of Alt-A loans that are re-setting over the next 3 years.

However, I don’t think this means a 20% drop in market prices.  I think we are likely to see another drop during 2010 and an extended period of up and down (the Alt-A loans will re-set through the next 3-4 years and then we will have the Home Affordable loans re-setting starting in year 5 which should be a smaller number (if the market stabilizes) but will still be a negative influence). I think we are mostly through the painful devaluation phase and moving into what I can best call (someone else’s term) an extended “muddle through” period.

In summary as I have said before, we have oversold housing as an investment over the past 10 years and undersold it as “home”.  We don’t have a choice anymore but to look at our homes as places we raise our families and with the help of 30 year fixed mortgages, slowly pay off so that our true  “investments” don’t have to pay for our mortgage when we retire.

 That’s it – enjoy the coffee (if you’re still awake! – I’m off to bed)

FRIENDSHIP AND LOVE

• Love starts with a smile, grows with a kiss, and ends with a tear.
• Don’t cry over anyone who won’t cry over you.
• Good friends are hard to find, harder to leave, and impossible to forget.
• You can only go as far as you push.
• Actions speak louder than words.
• The hardest thing to do is watch the one you love, love somebody else.
• Don’t let the past hold you back; you’re missing the good stuff.
• Life’s short. If you don’t look around once in a while, you might miss it.
• A best friend is like a four leaf clover: hard to find and lucky to have.
• If you think that the world means nothing, think again. You might mean the world to someone else. 
• When it hurts to look back, and you’re scared to look ahead, you can look beside you and your best friend will be there
• True friendship never ends.
• Friends are forever.
• Good friends are like stars….You don’t always see them, but you know they are always there.
• Don’t frown. You never know who is falling in love with your smile.
• What do you do when the only person who can make you stop crying is the person who made you cry?
• NOBODY IS PERFECT UNTIL YOU FALL IN LOVE WITH THEM. (Isn’t that the truth?)
• Everything is okay in the end. If it’s not okay, then it’s not the end.

Most people walk in and out of you life. But only True friends leave footprints in your heart.

Have a great week!

Scott

Monday Morning Coffee

Last modified on 2009-11-15 23:30:25 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee 

November 16, 2009

 Good morning! 

I hope you had a great weekend.  We went to a Brewmaster’s Dinner with some good friends and had a great time.  Of course, five different high octane beers paired with dinner on Saturday meant it was a lllooonnnggg Sunday with a 3-year old.  Last week I mentioned I was going to try and break down the foreclosure market and what I want to do is look at each different type of loan and when they re-set and project the number of foreclosures vs modifications to create a timeline that might give us an idea how long the housing “crisis” will last.  I had two problems with getting this done last week.  The first is that finding the detailed data has been very difficult and second, the data that is available is about to be updated with Q3 numbers, so it doesn’t make sense to use 5 month old information.  So, I will keep trying to put it together and hopefully have it in the next couple of weeks.

Now that the First Time Home Buyer’s Tax Credit has been extended, I think the changes they made to it are going to be very positive for values in the short term.  By applying the law to people who have owned a home recently and allowing the maximum income for a couple to reach $225k before they lose eligibility, we might extend the market gains we are currently seeing on homes under $625k up to homes in the $800k level.  Let’s hope so anyway.

Nothing new on the market this week although we are talking to a couple of people about putting homes on the market in early January.  We do have one offer in on the short-sale home we showed last week and are planning on taking it to the bank early this week.  If anyone else wants to get in and see a 4 bedroom in 4S for under $600k, let me know.

That’s it.  Enjoy the Coffee!

I am a week late with this one.  This was supposed to run last week for Veteran’s Day at the request of Kim (who keeps things running smoothly around here).  She recently married Brian, a Marine pilot who is heading for Afghanistan in a couple of weeks.

Ten Tenors Tribute to the Military

Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189

Monday Morning Coffee – Links to Foreclosure Data

Last modified on 2009-11-09 23:19:49 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee – A Lot of Interesting Research

November 9, 2009

A busy weekend saw me asleep very early last night, but feeling a lot better and trying to catch up this morning.   I will try and be very quick because the work is piling up.  I have been working on a prospectus for a bulk foreclosure deal and while I can’t share the details, I can share a lot of the research and what I have found.   I will summarize the findings, but a couple of interesting articles to read if you are interested are: 

http://www.occ.gov/ftp/release/2009-118a.pdf

and 

http://matrix.millersamuel.com/wp-content/3q09/Amherst%20Mortgage%20Insight%2009232009.pdf

The main points of the first report are as of the end of Q2:

• 11.4% of all first mortgages covered are non-performing.
• Loans in foreclosure were 2.9% of all first mortgages, a 10.5% increase from the previous quarter.
• 3% of all Prime loans are 60 days or more delinquent – Prime loans are made to the most credit worthy borrowers.
• The Pay Option ARMs (also known as Pick-A-Payment loans) have a foreclosure rate of 10% plus a 60-day delinquency rate of 15.2%
• Driven by the Making Home Affordable program, homes that newly entered loan modification or payment plans totaled 439,574 for the quarter.  Up 74.8% from a year ago.

The report also called into question the viability of moan modifications noting that more than 56% of all loans modified in the second quarter of 2008 were back in default a year later.  Even more troublesome was that more than 1/4 of all loans modified in the first quarter of this year were back in default in the second quarter – owners never made another payment, they just re-started the foreclosure clock.  The report also noted that foreclosure completions are ramping up as the national, state and local moratoria have expired.

The second report looks at the the amount of inventory that is on the market and compares it to the amount that the banks are will have to put on in the near future.  This report, from Amherst Securities contends that once an owner is 60 days late on a payment, there is a 95.6% chance that the home will be taken back by the bank.  Using that number along with the number of homes that are 60 days late, they conclude that there is approximately 16 months of inventory that the banks will be putting on the market based only on homes that are delinquent today. 

The reports both also noted that another wave of loans is about to reset which will cause a similar number of defaults as we have seen already. 

After reading the articles, you might come to a different conclusion, but it looks to me like the data is pointing not necessarily to another large drop  in prices (although that could still happen), but definitely to a much longer time period for real estate to be depressed.    I will try find the numbers and put together a quick report for next week, but it seems to me that the following is likely to happen:

• We will be through the first wave of foreclosures about 3 – 3 1/2 years after the first loans reset.
• Then have to work through the defaults of all those loans that were modified which could extend the fallout from the re-sets to 5 years. 
• Add on top of that a second wave of resets that is supposed to hit next summer and assume that takes another 5 years to work through which extends things until 2015. 
• At the end of that period will be any fallout from the Making Home Affordable Program which is another type of loan modification program, but with loans that don’t reset for 5 years.  So, if people are not able to increase their incomes in 5 years to a point where they can make their payments when they adjust, we will start another wave just as the second wave ends. 
• Longest case scenario is we are still working through foreclosures from the Real Estate Bubble in 2019. 

Not that’s that that is the worst case.  I think we avoided the worst case.  By doing loan modifications now, the banks have lowered the amount of inventory on the market and created some stabilization that we would not have had if all the homes had hit the market at the same time, and although that extends the length of the recovery  I look at it as slowing the bleeding so we can figure out how to save the patient.  The overall effect is likely to be that the drop is less than it could have been, but depressed values will hang around for a lot longer than they would have.  On the bright side, that will give everyone a good opportunity to take advantage of the lower prices.

Speaking of taking advantage of good opportunities.  Take a look at the new short sale we have listed in 4S Ranch.

That’s it – time to get to work – Enjoy the Coffee!

Ghandi

Mahatma Gandhi went from city to city, village to village collecting funds for the Charkha Sangh. During one of his tours he addressed a meeting in Orissa. After his speech a poor old woman got up. She was bent with age, her hair was grey and her clothes were in tatters. The volunteers tried to stop her, but she fought her way to the place where Gandhiji was sitting. “I must see him,” she insisted and going up to Gandhiji touched his feet. Then from the folds of her sari she brought out a copper coin and placed it at his feet. Gandhiji picked up the copper coin and put it away carefully. The Charkha Sangh funds were under the charge of Jamnalal Bajaj. He asked Gandhiji for the coin but Gandhiji refused. “I keep cheques worth thousands of rupees for the Charkha Sangh,” Jamnalal Bajaj said laughingly “yet you won’t trust me with a copper coin.” “This copper coin is worth much more than those thousands,” Gandhiji said. “If a man has several lakhs and he gives away a thousand or two, it doesn’t mean much. But this coin was perhaps all that the poor woman possessed. She gave me all she had. That was very generous of her. What a great sacrifice she made. That is why I value this copper coin more than a crore of rupees.”

Have a great week!

Scott

Monday Morning Coffee -

Last modified on 2009-11-02 23:10:24 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee – Tax Credit Extended

November 2, 2009

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  Just a couple of quick notes – a few weeks ago I mentioned that I thought the government would extend the first time home buyer’s tax credit in an attempt to keep the economy rolling so they can keep their agenda moving.  I also said it wouldn’t be done until late October or early November.  This time, I was right on both counts as it was passed by the Senate last week and is expected to get Obama’s signature this week. 
Don’t know if you caught this on the news, but this guy had the market pegged.  Cori said he’s pretty good looking too.

We accepted an offer on one of our silent short sales in 4S, but still have a very nice condo in Torrey Highlands (3 beds, 2,000 sf with about 400sf of additional storage off the garage that is not included in the sf).  If you are interested, please let me know.

We also will have a short sale in 4S listed this week.  4 beds, 2344sf in Garden Walk.  Let me know if you would like an early peak at it.

Enjoy the Coffee!

How To Love Yourself

Stop All Criticism – Criticism never changes a thing. Refuse to criticize yourself. Accept yourself exactly as you are. Everybody changes. When you criticize yourself, your changes are negative. When you approve of yourself, your changes are positive.

Don’t Scare Yourself – Stop terrorizing yourself with your thoughts. It’s a dreadful way to live. Find a mental image that gives you pleasure (mine is yellow roses), and immediately switch your scary thought to a pleasure thought.

Be Gentle And Kind And Patient – Be gentle with yourself. Be kind to yourself. Be patient with yourself as you learn the new ways of thinking. Treat yourself as you would someone you really loved.

Be Kind To Your Mind – Self hatred is only hating your own thoughts. Don’t hate yourself for having the thoughts. Gently change your thoughts.

Praise Yourself – Criticism breaks down the inner spirit. Praise builds it up. Praise yourself as much as you can. Tell yourself how well you are doing with every little thing.

Support Yourself – Find ways to support yourself. Reach out to friends and allow them to help you. It is being strong to ask for help when you need it.

Be Loving To Your Negatives – Acknowledge that you created them to fulfill a need. Now, you are finding new, positive ways to fulfill those needs. So, lovingly release the old negative patterns.

Take Care Of Your Body – Learn about nutrition. What kind of fuel does your body need to have optimum energy and vitality? Learn about exercise. What kind of exercise can you enjoy? Cherish and revere the temple you live in.

Mirror Work – Look into your eyes often. Express this growing sense of love you have for yourself. Forgive yourself looking into the mirror. Talk to your parents looking into the mirror. Forgive them too. At least once a day say: “I love you, I really love you.”

Love Yourself .. Do It Now – Don’t wait until you get well, or lose the weight, or get the new job, or the new relationship. Begin now — and do the best you can.

– Louise L. Hay Educational Institute

Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189

Monday Morning Coffee

Last modified on 2009-10-26 05:34:36 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee

Concentrated Benefit vs. Diffuse Harm

October 26, 2009

Good morning!  I hope you had a great weekend.  On the real estate side of things, the market is still slowly shrinking with 8397 total active listings in the county (not including mobile homes).  This continues to fall by 50-100 each week.  I received some interesting articles last week relating to the economy and real estate in specific. 

  The first one was the monthly report from Foreclosure Radar for September.  They looked at all the homes that have been taken back statewide and compared them to the number of homes the banks have sold.  They came up with a couple of interesting conclusions:

• There is no shadow inventory.  The banks are selling all that they are taking back.  The banks have been reducing their inventory over the past several months as demand has grown and the number of homes they have foreclosed on has gone down (due to delays caused by various moratoriums and the Home Affordable Modification Program). 

• The number of scheduled Trustee Sales has increased, indicated that the Home Affordable program may have delayed foreclosures while banks investigated modifications, but has not seriously halted the foreclosures – they are still coming.

 The second article was the text of a speech given by David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital.  He pointed out that there are two major flaws with our current system of government when trying to deal with an economic crisis such as we are in now:

 1.      Officials favor policies that have short term impacts over policies that will do the most good long term.  This is because they get elected based on short term results and won’t be around for the consequences (easy enough for even a Realtor like me to understand).

 2.      Concentrated Benefit vs. Diffuse Harm.  Also known as special interests – and the banks are using this to their advantage.  For those of you who weren’t aware of the problem (lol), imagine that your child goes to school with 19 other kids.  One of the kids can’t afford lunch, so the teacher asks each other student to bring him lunch every 19 days.  Now, we all believe it is good for all kids to have lunch and we each only have to make an extra lunch every 19 days, so we all agree (this is called charity, neighbor helping neighbor and was how it was done when our parents were kids).  Then, another child needs a lunch and of course, since we are caring parents, we all chip in – now we are making an extra lunch every 9 days.  Two more kids need lunch, we all pitch in and 16 of us are making an extra lunch every 4 days.  Now, here is where it becomes a problem.  The parents of the four kids getting the free lunches have a lot more interest in the free lunches than the 16 parents who make an extra lunch every four days, so the 4 parents band together and get the school to declare that the lunches you make must be of a certain quality and since we can’t be counted on to make them, we should just send the school enough money and the school will make them (this is called welfare).  Well, they aren’t that efficient and it costs them more money to make them that it does us, so the cost goes up.  The school is worried that we will get tired of supporting the program, so the principal starts to send home notices telling us we need to “step up and do our part”.  Then more parents decide they want in and pretty soon 12 parents are supporting all 20 kids.  (If this sounds familiar, that’s because 12 out of every 20 in the US population pays 100% of the federal income taxes). Eventually, the “lunch makers” become overworked (taxed) and the school prints IOUs to pay for the lunches thinking someone else will pay it back sometime later when someone else has to worry about it (this is called passing the buck and is how it is done now).  What some people are worried about is when taxes are high enough that your income all goes to buy lunch for kids whose parents don’t want to work, everyone stops working.  (I have many right wing friends and left wing friends and am not going to get into the free market vs socialism argument, this is more about how in a democracy as people vote themselves more benefits the system gets weighed down). 

The article goes onto discuss the differences between what the government is saying and what it is doing. With President Obama advocating the end of “too big to fail” and Secretary Geitner creating systems that protect the big from failing by moving the risk to the people while keeping the profit with the (bank, hedge fund…)  He goes into a lot more technical detail, but suffice to say while the first article had me happy that the market was absorbing all the current foreclosures, the second had me more worried about the overall economy three years out.

 Ok, back to cheerful real estate – I have the web site up for our downtown condo with Ocean Views that we listed last week.  A couple of you had expressed an interest, so if you would like to see it, please let me know.

 I will have more information on the silent short sales we listed last week, but that will have to wait a week.

 Enjoy the Coffee! 

The Wooden Bowl

 A frail old man went to live with his son, daughter-in-law, and a four-year old grandson. The old man’s hands trembled, his eyesight was blurred, and his step faltered. The family ate together nightly at the dinner table. But the elderly grandfather’s shaky hands and failing sight made eating rather difficult. Peas rolled off his spoon onto the floor. When he grasped the glass often milk spilled on the tablecloth. The son and daughter-in-law became irritated with the mess. “We must do something about grandfather,” said the son. I’ve had enough of his spilled milk, noisy eating, and food on the floor. So the husband and wife set a small table in the corner. There, grandfather ate alone while the rest of the family enjoyed dinner at the dinner table. Since grandfather had broken a dish or two, his food was served in a wooden bowl. Sometimes when the family glanced in grandfather’s direction, he had a tear in his eye as he ate alone. Still, the only words the couple had for him were sharp admonitions when he dropped a fork or spilled food. The four-year-old watched it all in silence.

 One evening before supper, the father noticed his son playing with wood scraps on the floor. He asked the child sweetly, “What are you making?” Just as sweetly, the boy responded, “Oh, I am making a little bowl for you and mama to eat your food from when I grow up.” The four-year-old smiled and went back to work. The words so struck the parents that they were speechless. Then tears started to stream down their cheeks. Though no word was spoken, both knew what must be done. That evening the husband took grandfather’s hand and gently led him back to the family table.

For the remainder of his days he ate every meal with the family. And for some reason, neither husband nor wife seemed to care any longer when a fork was dropped, milk spilled, or the tablecloth soiled. Children are remarkably perceptive. Their eyes ever observe, their ears ever listen, and their minds ever process the messages they absorb. If they see us patiently provide a happy home atmosphere for family members, they will imitate that attitude for the rest of their lives. The wise parent realizes that every day that building blocks are being laid for the child’s future.

Let us all be wise builders and role models. Take care of yourself, … and those you love, … today, and everyday!

Have a Great Week!

 Scott

Monday Morning Coffee – Effect of First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit

Last modified on 2009-10-19 05:19:09 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee – First Time Home Buyer’s Tax Credit

October 19, 2009

Good morning!

I hope you all had a great weekend.  I just completed the market analysis I promised I would have today (and it is early Monday morning), so this is going to be brief.

The most illuminating piece of information that came out of the analysis was a rough estimate of the market effect the First Time Home Buyers Tax Credit is having.  You can find it on my blog if you are interested.

Oh and for those of you who asked about the Aggie the dog, she seems fine.  Just must have had an urge to have us blow $650 on vet bills in a week.

I am working on the web site for the downtown unit in the Grande and will have it up next week (a couple of you asked for more info and I will send it your way when it is up.

I do have 2 more new listings that are in the silent short sale category and will be on the market in the next month.  One is a condo in Torrey Highlands and the other is a smaller 4 bedroom detached home in 4S.  If you think you might be interested, let me know and I will get you details on them.
Enjoy the Coffee!

Inspirational Poem – Do Not Quit

When things go wrong,
as they sometimes will,

When the road your trudging
Seems all uphill,

When the funds are low
And the debts are High,

And you want to smile,
but you have to sigh,

When care is pressing you down a bit,
Rest if you must, but don’t you quit.

Life is queer with it’s twists an turns,
As everyone of us must sometimes learn,

And many a failure turns about,
When he might have won had he stuck it out,

Don’t give up though the pace seems slow,
You may succeed with another blow.

Success is failure turned inside out,
The silver tint of the clouds of doubt,

And you can never tell how close you are,
It may be near when it seems so far,

So stick to the fight when you’re hardest hit,
It’s when things seem worst that you cannot quit.

Unknown Author

Have a Great Week!

Scott

Monday Morning Coffee

Last modified on 2009-10-11 05:12:49 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee – A Busy Week

October 11, 2009

Good Morning!

I hope you had a great weekend. Ours was very nice as it started with Kim (my assistant) getting married on Friday afternoon.  The reception started with the sun going down over bay (Admiral Kidd Club on the base in Point Loma).  It was really a beautiful setting and a great evening.  Saturday was our friend Larry’s 50(ish) birthday party which was a lot of fun (and would have been more fun if my 40-something year old body could bounce back from a wedding like it did when I was 20-something).    We almost made it to 4 consecutive weeks without a family member having to go to the hospital when Agatha the dog had to go on Saturday.  The $250 diagnosis was allergic reaction to a bee sting, but since she is still in pain, I am going to guess we have more like a $500 tooth extraction courtesy of Zach feeding her ice cubes, but I’m hoping not.

I  was going to do my quarterly analysis of the 4S Ranch market (serves as a good microcosm  of the overall market with homes going from 1 bedroom condos to 5000+sf estates with a lot of bad loans).  However, with a wedding, party, vet and open house I never was able to run all the numbers, so I will have it next week.  I expect it will show that prices are moving up on the low end and down on the high end.

Overall, inventory continues to slowly fall as buyers are trying to take advantage of the mortgage tax credit.  I will update county numbers next week also.

I mentioned I would have a new listing for you this week.  We put it on the market Friday and have offers in already.  If it looks interesting to you, please call me quickly – 3 beds, 2.4 baths, 2344 sf in 4S Ranch.

We also listed a gorgeous condo downtown at The Grande.   It’s a 2 bedroom with phenomenal views.  It is listed at $1,049,000 and I will have a site for it next week.

That’s it, enjoy the coffee!

A Story To Live By

by Ann Wells, Los Angeles Times

My brother-in-law opened the bottom drawer of my sister’s bureau and lifted out a tissue-wrapped package. “This,” he said, “is not a slip.  This is lingerie.” He discarded the tissue and handed me the slip. It was exquisite; silk, handmade and trimmed with a cobweb of lace. The price tag with an astronomical figure on it was still attached. “Jan bought this the first time we went to New York, at least 8 or 9 years ago. She never wore it. She was saving it for a special occasion. Well, I guess this is the occasion.” He took the slip from me and put it on the bed with the other clothes we were taking to the mortician. His  hands lingered on the soft material for a moment, then he slammed the drawer shut and turned to me. “Don’t ever save anything for a special occasion. Every day you’re alive is a special occasion.”

I remembered those words through the funeral and the days that followed when I helped him and my niece attend to all the sad chores that follow an unexpected death. I thought about them on the plane returning to California from the Midwestern town where my sister’s
family lives. I thought about all the things that she hadn’t seen or heard or done. I thought about the things that she had done without realizing that they were special. I’m still thinking about his words, and they’ve changed my life.

I’m reading more and dusting less. I’m sitting on the deck and admiring the view without fussing about the weeds in the garden.

I’m spending more time with my family and friends and less time in committee meetings. Whenever possible, life should be a pattern of experience to savor, not endure. I’m trying to recognize these moments now and cherish them.

I’m not “saving” anything; we use our good china and crystal for every special event-such as losing a pound, getting the sink unstopped, the first camellia blossom.

I wear my good blazer to the market if I feel like it. My theory is if I look prosperous, I can shell out $28.49 for one small bag of groceries without wincing.

I’m not saving my good perfume for special parties; clerks in hardware stores and tellers in banks have noses that function as well as my party-going friends’.

“Someday” and “one of these days” are losing their grip on my vocabulary. If it’s worth seeing or hearing or doing, I want to see and hear and do it now. I’m not sure what my sister would have done had she known that she wouldn’t be here for the tomorrow we all take for
granted.

It’s those little things left undone that would make me angry if I knew that my hours were limited. Angry because I put off seeing good friends whom I was going to get in touch with-someday. Angry because I hadn’t written certain letters that I intended to write-one of these days.
Angry and sorry that I didn’t tell my husband and daughter often enough how much I truly love them.

I’m trying very hard not to put off, hold back, or save anything that would add laughter and luster to our lives. And every morning when I open my eyes, I tell myself that it is special. Every day, every minute, every breath truly is…a gift from God.

by Ann Wells in the Los Angeles Times

 Have a Great Week!

Scott

Monday Morning Coffee – Silent Short Sale

Last modified on 2009-10-05 04:45:21 GMT. 0 comments. Top.

Monday Morning Coffee

Good morning!

 I hope you had a nice weekend.  Ours was busy as we mixed family time in with a lot of showings and appointments.  The market is staying heated with buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit (which will be extended).  I wanted to address two items before we get to the Coffee this week:

Last week, I talked about a new Loan Re-Write program as an option to foreclosure.  This week, I want to talk about another option.  Many people are turning to a short sale to help lessen the impact on their credit and allow them back into the market in two years (instead of five with a foreclosure).  The problem with a short sale, is that they can take a long time and your home is advertised as a short sale so all your neighbors know you are going through the foreclosure process.  Furthermore, most agents are using a strategy of pricing the home low to drive traffic – which is not only very disruptive to a family, but often results in an offer too low for the bank to take seriously.  So, the house gets opened back up for another parade of showings.  Only this time, it has been on the market for 90 days and buyers start to think there is something wrong with the house or that it is going to be too hard to get closed.  We have come up wi th a better way (for the homeowner) to do a short sale.  We are going to call it the Silent Short Sale.  If you or someone you know are considering a short sale, please check in with me prior to starting an overly disruptive process that can be done much more effectively.

 Quickly looking at September’s numbers shows a continuation of the trend we have been seeing.  Inventory is down considerably over last year and continues to fall a little every month.  Closings are up a couple of points over last year and look to be fairly even with August.  I expect October to stay strong and then November to start to tail off for the holidays.

 We will be putting one new home on the market this week.  It is a 3 bedroom 2,344 sf home in the Cedar Creek development at 4S Ranch.  It is a very nice home and Cedar Creek has some of the lowest Mello-Roos in 4S.  It will be priced in the low $600k range and I will have photos for you next week.  If you want an early peak, let me know.

 That’s it for this week – Enjoy the Coffee!

ATTITUDE IS EVERYTHING

 By Francie Baltazar-Schwartz

 Jerry was the kind of guy you love to hate. He was always in a good mood and always had something positive to say. When someone would ask him how he was doing, he would reply, “If I were any better, I would be twins!”

 He was a unique manager because he had several waiters who had followed him around from restaurant to restaurant. The reason the waiters followed Jerry was because of his attitude. He was a natural motivator. If an employee was having a bad day, Jerry was there telling the employee how to look on the positive side of the situation.

 Seeing this style really made me curious, so one day I went up to Jerry and asked him, “I don’t get it! You can’t be a positive person all of the time. How do you do it?”

 Jerry replied, “Each morning I wake up and say to myself, ‘Jerry, you have two choices today. You can choose to be in a good mood or you can choose to be in a bad mood.’ I choose to be in a good mood. Each time something bad happens, I can choose to be a victim or I can choose to learn from it. I choose to learn from it. Every time someone comes to me complaining, I can choose to accept their complaining or I can point out the positive side of life. I choose the positive side of life.”

 ”Yeah, right, it’s not that easy,” I protested.

 ”Yes, it is,” Jerry said. “Life is all about choices. When you cut way all the junk, every situation is a choice. You choose how you react to situations. You choose how people will affect your mood. You choose to be in a good mood or bad mood. The bottom line: It’s your choice how you live life.”

 I reflected on what Jerry said. Soon thereafter, I left the restaurant industry to start my own business. We lost touch, but I often thought about him when I made a choice about life instead of reacting to it.

 Several years later, I heard that Jerry did something you are never supposed to do in a restaurant business: he left the back door open one morning and was held up at gunpoint by three armed robbers. While trying to open the safe, his hand, shaking from nervousness, slipped off the combination. The robbers panicked and shot him. Luckily, Jerry was found relatively quickly and rushed to the local trauma center.

 After 18 hours of surgery and weeks of intensive care, Jerry was released from the hospital with fragments of the bullets still in his body.

 I saw Jerry about six months after the accident. When I asked him how he was, he replied, “If I were any better, I’d be twins. Wanna see my scars?”

 I declined to see his wounds, but did ask him what had gone through his mind as the robbery took place. “The first thing that went through my mind was that I should have locked the back door,” Jerry replied. “Then, as I lay on the floor, I remembered that I had two choices: I could choose to live, or I could choose to die. I chose to live.”

 ”Weren’t you scared? Did you lose consciousness?” I asked.

 Jerry continued, “The paramedics were great. They kept telling me I was going to be fine. But when they wheeled me into the emergency room and I saw the expressions on the faces of the doctors and nurses, I got really scared. In their eyes, I read, ‘He’s a dead man.’

 ”I knew I needed to take action.”

 ”What did you do?” I asked.

 ”Well, there was a big, burly nurse shouting questions at me,” said Jerry. “She asked if I was allergic to anything. ‘Yes,’ I replied. The doctors and nurses stopped working as they waited for my reply. I took a deep breathe and yelled, ‘Bullets!’ Over their laughter, I told them. ‘I am choosing to live. Operate on me as if I am alive, not dead.”

 Jerry lived thanks to the skill of his doctors, but also because of his amazing attitude. I learned from him that every day we have the choice to live fully. Attitude, after all, is everything.

 Have a Great Week!

Scott

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