Monday Morning Coffee – The Drip System and a Sink Hole

Monday Morning Coffee

A Sink Hole in San Diego or Why I Have to be Good at Real Estate

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  Ours was a little slow with only one open house and activity generally slow, Cori and I actually were able to see a movie – Early Grammy betting tip: Salt will not win best picture.  Those of you who have read the last couple of Coffees will remember that I am slooooowwwwlllllyyyyy converting our “spray everything including the side of the house” sprinkler system to a drip system.  Well, it slowed down again this week when I discovered a small sink hole in my back/side yard. 

Now, I am brave enough to try and conserve some water and be more efficient in my application thereof, but when it comes to undermining the integrity of the hardscape in the backyard, I draw the line.   So, I called the gardener in (he is not the same that installed the original system) and fortunately the problem was that the initial contractor did not use much glue at a specific joint and the increased pressure from capping some of the sprinklers caused the joints to slip out.  He quickly fixed it and there should be no more problems…unless there are more joints with insufficient glue. 

Hmm.  I think I will proceed slowly.

Speaking of slowly, how about that real estate market?  This morning, the Census Bureau is set to announce the number of new home sales in June.  When the May number came out is was 30 something percent under last year and increased the worry for a double dip recession.  Well, if you want to sound smart this morning – it’s going to be low again.  So show off at the coffee machine and predict about a 30-35% drop from last year with  the numbers being close to May of this year (the reason is that the tax credit sucked all the demand into the early part of the year).    The residential resale side is really slowing also (at least in San Diego).  Last July, we sold about 2,900 homes throughout the county and last month it was just over 3,000.  Right now, with five workdays to go and sixteen behind us, we have 1,591 closed.  My guess is that we close about 2,350 for the month which would be about a 20% drop from last year .  I expect the homes in escrow will be about the same at the end of the month as last month, indicating the liklihood that August will bel slow also.

With this slowdown, there are some good opportunities for patient investors – and there will be more coming down the line.  I think the end of this year will provide some excellent opportuntites for investors looking for one or two properties in San Diego.  For people buying a home, I don’t think there is a problem buying a home now, as long as you are planning on staying several years.  Yes, the market is going to go down a bit, but if you have found the right house for your family, there is no guarantee it will be there once the market falls a little, and these rates are incredible.

No new listings this week, so time for the Coffee:

A Healthy Life

  by: Jaye Lewis

I’ve never been an athlete. I’ve never been much interested in sports, ever since I stopped playing touch-football with the boys, when I hit puberty. I’ve tried tennis. I hit the ball too high, too long, and way over into left field. I’ve tried softball. Thank goodness that ball is “soft” and big, because it felt just awful when it hit me in the eye. I tried running, but I couldn’t get anyone to chase me.

I tried swimming, but even though I float like a cork, and have had numerous lessons, I can’t seem to get over the idea, that I’m really going to drown. Finally, I settled on walking, and for a number of years, I walked 3 to 5 miles a day. I realize that there is an Olympic sport referred to as “walking,” but when I tried that, all I succeeded in doing was throwing my hip out.

I’m definitely NOT an athlete, but I make do, especially in my “mid-life” years. Which brings a question to my mind. When did I hit mid-life? I remember when I hit thirty. I had to visit a grief counselor, because I knew my life was over. I remember forty. I had to see a grief counselor, the day after my first child graduated from high-school and moved out of the house, because I knew my life was over. I remember forty-four. For some reason I thought my life was over. Then I hit fifty, and I was all excited, because I was able to join an organization called AARP. My husband was, especially, excited because he is younger than I, and he got to join, too!

Fifty became the magic age. I knew that as long as I was in good health, in this day and age, I probably had a good fifty years ahead of me. Then came the asthma. O.K., I had that much earlier, but it only became life threatening after fifty. Then came the firbromyalgia. O.K., I had THAT earlier, but it’s not life threatening. Then came the arthritis, and, more recently, at fifty-five, came the diabetes. Somewhere, along in there, I became very interested in pharmaceuticals, and, finally, one day, I became free.

I began by noticing the sunsets, and I had the time to stop and really wonder, at the beauty and the magnitude of it all. Then I moved onto the sunrises, and I quickly found out that if I wasted the early morning, I missed the loveliest part of the day. Then I began to notice how grateful I was to be able to witness the changing of the seasons. The first whisper of spring; the rustling of the leaves beneath my feet, in the fall; that first breathless covering of a winter’s snow; and in the summer, all the flowers, and the buzzing of a bumblebee.

When illness would hit me, I found that I, actually, enjoyed the solitude. A time to reflect, gather my thoughts, and pray, at leisure. I found that I was “experiencing” this mid-life season, and I was no longer missing every moment, shackled to the chains of worry, and what “might” be. I found that worrying about tomorrow, only served to make me overlook the blessings of today.

It’s not always easy. A few loads of laundry, and a pile of dishes can take an entire day; but then I don’t push myself a lot. So, I forget to make the bed, as I watch the rosy glow of dawn meet the rising sun. I have time to walk our little, wooded acre with my little dachshund straining at the leash. I get to read the “signs,” with my Happy Dog, sniff the air, and gaze out at nowhere, studying the sky, with the same intensity that my little dog studies the ground.

I get to meet the day, every day. I get to say “good-night,” to the sunsets. I’ve studied a lot of sunsets, in the last five years, and I’ve never seen two that were alike. I get to know my Creator as I never have before, and I’ve gotten to make MY mind up, about the mysteries of life; and I have grown certain, that all this was no accident.

I feed the birds, and I take great delight in their multicolored hues, especially in the spring. I drag a chair to stand on, so that I can fill the feeders to the brim, myself. I say a little prayer, as I wobble, a little cock-eyed on the chair, and I laugh, at myself, and all the pretensions of my younger life. I take great delight in my life. I thank God for all the precious little things of every day. Friends. Family. Neighbors. And health. A health of the soul. For I have come to understand what real health is, and when you have REAL health, then you truly have everything.

Have a Great Week!

Scott

Monday Morning Coffee – Battle with the Drip System

Monday Morning Coffee

Battle with the Drip System  (or why I should stick to Real Estate)

Good morning,

I hope you had a nice weekend.  It’s been nice to have the sun come back out the last week – although it feels like it is trying to make up for lost time.   In the further mis-adventures of Scott and the drip system, it seems like there was a bit too much pressure and on Wednesday morning while James, the pool guy, was cleaning the pool and I was about to jump in the shower there was a loud “pop” as one of the valves failed.  James almost ended up in the pool (it sounded like a gun shot) and pieces of the valve ended up in opposite directions 30 feet from where they were supposed to be – and I ended up at Home Depot again.

On the real estate side, things continue to slow down.  In July of 2009, we closed over 2,800 homes in San Diego County.  So far this month (11 of the 21 business days completed) we have closed 1,008.  The number in escrow is also down, from over 7,000 to just over 5,200 this year.  Call volume is also down significantly just when it should be picking up for the summer.  I am more solidly in the camp of – another dip in real estate and just hoping it bounces back early next year.  This could be great for investors as rates remain low the forth quarter could bring some great opportunities.

We don’t have any new listings this week, so let’s skip straight to the coffee -

Lessons Learned

Author Unknown

Have a Great Week!

Scott

Monday Morning Coffee – Real Estate Slowdown Coming

Monday Morning Coffee
Real Estate Slowdown Ahead

Good morning,
I hope you had a great weekend – and for those of you who extended the 4th of July weekend into a weeks vacation – congratulations. Now, get back to work:-)

The market has definitely slowed, which has allowed me to get to a couple of projects around the house. We had planted a few vegetables and we have a spaghetti squash and butternut squash plants that have taken over the side yard and are about to try and break into the house. This made me finally tackle the sprinkler system in the yard – trying to convert it to a drip so I stop wattering the house and patio. Of course, only when I got to Home Depot did I realize that I did not even know how much I did not know about what I was trying to do. Four trips back and forth and eight sprinklers (about 40 to go) have been transitioned to drip or capped off – and only three of them leak.

But I digress from the main point, and that is that the only reason I have time to do this is the market has slowed down. Two weeks ago (I took last Monday off too) I said that things felt like they were slowing down. In July of 2009, we sold over 2800 homes. So far, 6 business days into a 21 day month, we have 475 sold. Now, the homes in escrow have increased by 300 so far this month, which might indicate that closings will ramp up at the end of the month, but I still think we could be down by about 20-25%. I hope I am wrong, but it sure feels slow out there. It is moving to a buyers’ market and I think now is the wrong time to try and squeeze every last dollar out of your home if you are selling. The risk/reward of holding out over the summer is not in the sellers favor right now.

That said, we have three great listings to tell you about – should have been four, but we bucked the trend and sold one of them last week:

3 bed townhome in 4S Ranch. This home is in the Gianni complex on the north side of 4S Ranch and is impeccably updated. Walking distance to Monterey Ridge, the Gianni complex is very popular for young families with elementary aged children. The home is priced at $429k.

South 4S Ranch View Home – This is one of two homes we have on Lone Bluff Way. This home is 4 beds, 3 1/2 baths, almost 2,900sf and a great view of Black Mountain. The yard is big enough for a pool. It is priced at $720k and we have 2 offers in. It will likely be gone by Monday evening. So if you are interested, let us know ASAP.

4 bed with loft – This is the other home available on Lone Bluff Way. It has a bedroom dowstairs as well as 3 beds and a large loft upstairs. It is over 3,200 sf of living space on a great cul-d-sac on the south side of 4S Ranch. Asking price is $745k.

That’s it for this week. Enjoy the Coffee (and tell all your friends to help the market and buy a house!)

This week’s edition comes because of those darn books you read to 4 year olds. You know, the ones you can’t get out of your head. Interestingly, there is sometimes more to learn from children’s books than from “adult” books. So, here is some wisdom from Theodore Geisel:

• A person’s a person, no matter how small.
• You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself, any direction you choose.
• Don’t cry because it’s over. Smile because it happened.
• Today is your day! Your mountain is waiting. So… get on your way.
• If you never did, you should. These things are fun, and fun is good.
• And will you succeed? Yes indeed, yes indeed! Ninety-eight and three-quarters percent guaranteed.
• Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.
• All alone! Whether you like it or not, alone is something you’ll be quite a lot.
• The more that you read, the more things you will know. The more that you learn, the more places you’ll go.
• Today was good. Today was fun. Tomorrow is another one.
• Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It’s not.
• I’m afraid sometimes you’ll play lonely games too, games you can’t win because you’ll play against you
• I’m sorry to say so but, sadly it’s true that bang-ups and hang-ups can happen to you
• I know up on the top you are seeing great sights, but down at the bottom we, too, should have rights.

By Theodore Geisel (aka Dr. Seuss).

Cmon, I can’t be serious every week,

Scott Voak

San Diego June Home Sales Numbers

San Diego Home Inventory Rises – Sales Fall

*Note that this data is from the SANDICOR MLS as of July 5, 2009 and does not include homes sold by builders that were not sold through the MLS (New Construction) nor homes sold at Trustee Sale (Foreclosures).

Current numbers shown for June 2010 San Diego Home Sales indicate both a rise in supply and a drop in demand.  The combined affect is an increase inventory (as measured by months required to sell the existing homes for sale at the sales rate of the past year) of 19% over 12 months ago (although at 4.3 months, it is still not at a level that can be considered high).  The specific numbers are:

• There were 3,004 homes sold in June of 2010 as compared to 3,288 a year ago and 3,219 in May of 2010.
  • After last month’s drop in homes that were in escrow, this was to be expected.  Although, it is still dissappointing in that we all hoped the tax credit would help keep demand going through June.
• At the end of the month there were 12,175 homes on the market as opposed to 9,443 a year ago and 11,257 at the end of May, 2010.
  • This was caused by a combination of fewer homes going into escrow (lower demand) and the normal increase in inventory we see over the summer.  Both are expected as the tax credit expiring removed the urgency to purchase for a lot of first time home buyers (similar to when Cash for Clunkers expired for cars, we will likely see an extended period of below average demand for houses now that the tax credit has expired).
• Homes in escrow dropped to 4,961 from 6,862 a year ago and 5,546 in May of 2010. 
  • In the last two  months, the number of homes in escrow has dropped 23%, which points to continued slowness.
• Homes that are “Contingent” fell by 5% in June.  This is  a designation most commonly used for short sale homes that are awaiting bank approval of an offer and might mean that the banks are in fact getting better an processing short sales in a timely fashion.

Small Investment Opportunity

Front of Condo

Fallbrook Short Sale condo

For those of you looking for a small real estate investment, try this one:

• 2 Bedroom (dual master) condo on Gird Rd that sold in June of 2005 for $355,000 owner then re-did the kitchen with granite counters and new appliances.
• Will rent for $1,300 – $1,400 – the rear entrance to Camp Pendleton is nearby.
• HOA is $200/mo and there are no Mello-Roos.
• It is a short sale and I think I can get it approved between $170k and $180k. 
• With 25% down, it looks like worse case it is break even cash flow and best case it is a 4% return on invested cash

No, it’s not the perfect unit.   Yes, there is road noise.  No, you are not going to want to retire into it.

It’s an investment.  With cash flow.  And upside.

Kitchen

So, if you are looking for an investment in San Diego that you can get with 25% down as a small investor and get it for about 50% of the price paid in  2005 (with a kitchen re-model thrown in since then), give me a call.

Monday Morning Coffee – Revised look San Diego’s May home sales

Monday Morning Coffee

May Home Sales

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  Mine is rapidly coming to a close and there is still much to do, so this will be short this week.

Now that most of the reporting is done for May, the numbers are a little clearer for San Diego County. 

• There were over 3200 homes sold in May which was up 11% over 2009 and 10% over April.  This was to be expected as first time home buyers pushed out April closings to May to take advantage of the state tax credit.
• The number of homes in escrow at the end of the month fell to just over 5500, a 26% drop over 2009 and a 14$ drop over the end of April.  Once again, this was expected as the federal tax credit pulled a lot of demand forward, and now that it has expired, the demand will be less than it otherwise would have been through the summer.
• Inventory as measured by homes that are: Listed for sale, shown as Contingent or Pending, divided by the last 12 months sales increased by 8% over last year to 7.5 months – the first increase since September of 2008.  If measured using only the “Active” listings, inventory still sits at 4 months, which is even with last year.

Ok, so much for the quick analysis.  We have one new listing this week.  It is a short sale condo and as such the photos are not as good as they could be, but it is a great opportunity to look at a 2 bedroom starter condo for under $300k. This home went on the market last week with first showings at the open house Sunday.  We already have one offer, so if you are interested, please let me know asap.

That’s it, nice and short this week.  Enjoy the Coffee – this week, in honor of our graduates, an excerpt that supposedly came from a Bill Gates graduation speech.

On the rules of life for graduates.
RULE 1.

Life is not fair; get used to it.

RULE 2.

The world won’t care about your self-esteem. The world will expect you
to accomplish something BEFORE you feel good about yourself.

RULE 3.

You will NOT make 40 thousand dollars a year right out of high school OR
college. You won’t be a vice-president with a car phone, until you earn
both.

RULE 4.

If you think your teacher is tough, wait until you get a boss. He
doesn’t have tenure.

RULE 5.

Flipping burgers is not beneath your dignity. Your grandparents had a
different word for burger flipping; they called it opportunity.

RULE 6.

If you mess up, it’s not your parents’ fault, so don’t whine about your
mistakes, learn from them.

RULE 7.

Before you were born, your parents weren’t as boring as they are now.
They got that way from paying your bills, cleaning your clothes and
listening to you talk about how cool you are. So before you save the
rain forest from the parasites of your parents’ generation, try
“delousing” the closet in your own room.

RULE 8.

Your school may have done away with winners and losers, but life has
not. In some schools they have abolished failing grades; they’ll give
you as many times as you want to get the right answer. This doesn’t bear
the slightest resemblance to ANYTHING in real life.

RULE 9.

Life is not divided into semesters. You don’t get summers off and very
few employers are interested in helping you find yourself. Do that on
your own time.

RULE 10.

Television is NOT real life. In real life people actually have to leave
the coffee shop and go to jobs.

RULE 11.

Be nice to nerds. Chances are you’ll end up working for one.

 Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189

Monday Morning Coffee – San Diego Market Slows Down

Monday Morning Coffee

The San Diego Housing Market is Slowing a Bit

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  We celebrated Zach’s 4th birthday on Sunday and of course June Gloom in San Diego decided to show up early this year – only because we had the party at a water park.  Still a great time.  Grandma and Grandpa came out from Arizona and although we offered to let them babysit for a week, are moving on this morning.

I speculated a couple of weeks ago that activity would slow down once the tax credit ended on April 30th (Federal version).  It has certainly seemed to be the case, so I took a quick look and through the 16th of this month, we have put 1,470 homes in escrow in San Diego County.  Through the 16th of last month it was at least 1,900 (I say at least because I can only measure homes that went into escrow and are still in escrow or have closed, I cannot measure homes that went into escrow and then fell out and are back on the market).  This represents a minimum of a 23% decrease in month-over-month activity.  This will not show up in closed activity that gets reported until the end of June or July, but I will let you know if it looks like it is continuing.

We have one new listing on the market this week (but should have 2 condos next week).   This is a short sale in 4S Ranch.  It is 4 beds and over 3,300 sf of living space.  The asking price is $700,000. 

That’s it – Enjoy the Coffee!

If you are a regular reader, you are probably aware that our son Zach has Fragile-X Syndrome which is the leading genetic cause of autism and mental retardation.  We are fortunate that he was diagnosed early and with a phenomenal amount of help (for which we are extremely grateful) he is doing great.  A lot of his friends have similar limitations and it is very rewarding and hopeful to see them develop and realize that all these kids have a great potential.  With that in mind, I wanted to share the following video on an autistic man and his unique ability:

http://video.stumbleupon.com/#p=0k4lsi1dql

Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

858 688 1089

Monday Morning Coffee – Post tax credit

Good morning,

Hope you all had a great weekend.  We slowed down a bit this weekend after a crazy last week trying to help sellers and buyers take advantage of the expiring federal tax credit.  Most people in the industry we talked to were seeing the same thing we were – and all are hoping it continues into the summer. 

I took a quick look at the numbers for San Diego in April, and though I have not had time to blog on the results, here are the highlights:

• 2939 homes sold (this will rise a bit as agents finish reporting).  This is up 9% from last year and overall we are up about 2% year-to-date over last year. 
• 10,534 homes on the market at the end of the month.  This is the highest it has been since the low number of 8200 last October, but is still 24% below last April.
• Active numbers are seriously skewed right now as last May, short sales were considered Active if the bank was looking at offers and this year there is the classification of Contingent for those homes.  If you add the Active and Contingent homes together, there are about 8% more homes on the market this year than last year.
• The market has been severely skewed by the tax credit.  Under $800k, there are 3.3 months of inventory on the market in San Diego.  Over $800k (where buyers have not been motivated to purchase by a $6,500 tax credit) the inventory in San Diego is over 13 months.

I think the tax credit was a very large issue in driving the lower end of the market, but the lack of availability of jumbo loans was also a factor.  While the expiring tax credit will likely slow down sales at the lower end of the market, the increasing availability of jumbo loans will help the top end pick up a bit.  I expect (which means it won’t happen) is that by the end of the summer we will see the low end at about 5-6 months inventory and the highend at about 9-10 months of inventory.

Speaking of the high end, take a look at this gorgeous home we have in the Silver Saddle area of North Poway.  4 Beds, 3,600 sf with a pool and absolutely stunning sunset views.  It is also a great entertaining home that can easily handle 100 guests on a nice summer day.

That’s it for this week.  The coffee is a little different this week – and appologies to those of you who thought last week’s was not uplifting.  My intention was that it showed to value what you have because there is no guarantee your loved ones will be there tomorrow.  A couple of people thought it was too depressing – sorry, it wasn’t meant to bum you out.  This week is more of a look at a the humanity that can come out of the most inhumane situations we face and that compassion in any place is an amazing healer:

  ANOTHER WINNER OF THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE

 

John Gebhardt’s wife, Mindy, said that this little girl’s entire family was executed. The insurgents intended to execute the little girl also, and shot her in the head…but they failed to kill her. She was cared for in John’s hospital and is healing up, but continues to cry and moan. The nurses said John is the only one who seems to calm her down, so John has spent the last four nights holding her while they both slept in that chair. The girl is coming along with her healing.

 James Gates U. S. Navy

Have a great week!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189

Monday Morning Coffee

Monday Morning Coffee

Successful Haircut!

Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend.  Saturday was a milestone of sorts as it is the first time I took Zach for a haircut where he didn’t completely freak out and yell “Done! Done! Done!” from the moment we walked it.  I was so relieved he got his own hot dog at Costco.  Well, we were supposed to share it, but he figured out if he tore the bun and gave it to me, he could have the hot dog to himself. 

Saturday evening we went to Rythm and Vine with our friends John and Jean.  It was a Boys & Girls Club fund raiser with local restaurants, wineries and breweries sampling their specialties. 

The market continues to be very hot in advance of the Federal Tax Credit expiring, with lower priced homes receiving multiple offers and getting bid up over asking price.  Everyone is working like crazy to try and help people get into homes and hoping it doesn’t completely slow down once we get to May.

We were able to get two of the four homes I wrote about last week on the market.  The other two will come this week.  Here are the ones that we opened up for the first time on Sunday:

4 Bedroom in Garden Gate at 4S Ranch.  This is a 2,317 sf Plan 3 home with a full bedroom downstairs, an oversized granite island in the kitchen and a great southern exposure with a view of Black Mountain.

3 Bedroom in Garden Gate at 4S Ranch.  This is a 1,914 sf Plan 1 home with an office and full bath downstairs (the office can be used as a guest  bedroom with an armoir).  The highlight of this home is that it is the largest lot in Garden Gate and has a sunset ocean view (the ocean is a ways a way, but on a clear day, you can definitely see it).

That’s it.  Will have 3 more for you next week.

Enjoy the Coffee!

A Different Kind of Athlete

  by: Jaye Lewis, , Source Unknown

We found out that Jenny was hearing impaired, when she was four and a half years old. Several surgeries and speech classes later, when she was seven, we found out that Jenny had Juvenile Rheumatoid Arthritis.

She could not put pressure on the heels of her feet, so she walked on tiptoe, and when the pain became unbearable, I carried her. Jenny was fortunate, though, because she did not suffer the deformities, often associated with JRV.

All through grade school, and on into high school, Jenny suffered, yet never complained. She took her medicine, and I would often wrap her feet in steaming towels, and hold her until the pain eased. But, as soon as she could withstand the pain, Jenny, immediately, carried on, as though she were pain free.

She wore a smile on her face, a song on her lips, and a love and acceptance of others, that was, simply, amazing. I don’t remember her ever voicing self-pity. She ran, when she could run. She played when she could play, and she danced when she could dance. And, when she could do none of these things, she took her medicine, and she waited until she could.

Jenny, a beautiful blonde, with warm brown eyes, was never a cheerleader. She never competed in a sport. She could not even take part in a Gym Class, though she took the same health class four years in a row, just so she could pass with a substitute credit each year. She joined the band. She won a place in the Governor’s School for the Arts; yet, no one in the Charleston, South Carolina School System knew what to do with Jenny. The perimeters were, simply, not in place to deal with a student, who was both active and handicapped.

Jenny continued to have one surgery after another on her ears, all through school. Her hearing improved to 60%, and she taught herself to read lips. She carried a pillow to school, all through high school, and once, when she suddenly experienced crippling pain, her friends scooped her up, and carried her from class to class.

She was totally mainstreamed, popular, and funny, attending every football game, cheering the team on, carrying her pillow everywhere she went, so that she could cushion the pain, when she sat down. Then came her senior year. She would be considered for scholarships; however school activities, especially sports, could often mean the difference between receiving an award or losing out.

So Jenny came to a decision; and in her quirky, unorthodox manner, she began to bombard the high school football coach. She begged. She pleaded. She promised. She got her best friend to sign up with her. Finally the coach gave in, with the admonition, “If you miss ONE game, you’re out!” So, Jenny became Manager of the Garrett High School Football Team.

She carried big buckets of water to her teammates. She bandaged knees and ankles before every game. She massaged necks and backs. She gave pep talks. She was continually at their beck and call, and it turned out to be one of the best years for Garrett High School Football Team, in its twenty-five year history. Often Jenny could be seen carrying a bucket of water in each hand, nearly dragging them, along with her pillow tucked under her arm.

When asked why he thought that the team was winning all their games, even in the face of injury, one linebacker explained, in his soft, Charleston drawl, “Well, when you’ve been knocked down, and you can’t seem to move, you look up and see Jenny Lewis, limping across the field, dragging her buckets and carrying her pillow. It makes anything the rest of us may suffer seem pretty insignificant.”

At the Senior Awards ceremony, Jenny received a number of scholarships to College of Charleston. Her favorite scholarship, however, was a small one from the Charleston Women’s Club. The President of the Women’s Club listed Jenny’s accomplishments, starting with her grades, and ending with an excited, “…and the first girl to letter in football, in Garrett High School history!!”

Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189

Monday Morning Coffee – Rock ‘n Roll Edition

Monday Morning Coffee

Post Earthquake

Good Morning!

Hope your Easter Eggs didn’t get scrambled in the earthquake.  Outside of the Rock and Roll interuption, we had a nice Easter with friends coming over for dinner (we did a Prime Rib Roast that was so good I had to post it on Facebook).  Zach enjoyed the day – he doesn’t understand Easter yet, but anytime he gets a stuffed animal and chocolate it’s a good day.

If you want to check out the San Diego sales statistics for March, I took an early look on the blog.

I saw a couple of interesting articles this week that put forth the premise that the Fed exiting support of the mortgage market may not be that large an issue.  The arguments for this are twofold:

1. Since the Fed has been buying all the mortgages, individual and institutional investors have been only able to buy T-Bills or corporate bonds.  The feeling is that mortgages are more secure now because the qualification standards are higher (not too sure about this as we are seeing FHA hand out pretty easy money) so investors will buy the mortgages for the higher return than T-Bills.
2. Since the number of homes being sold is less than during the bubble and most of them are re-sales (as opposed to new construction), there will not really be that much additional loans needed (because when a buyer takes out a new loan on a re-sale house, the seller is paying off a loan).

These both are strong arguments and help explain why we have not yet seen rates rise as anticipated.  The factor that could mess both arguments up is if a wave of new foreclosures hit the market – and though it is expected, it has not materialized yet.

We started marketing two homes last week that I mentioned in last Monday’s Coffee.  The sites are up now:

4 Bedroom (1 bedroom downstairs) - 3 Bath – 2,344 SF home on Baylee Lane in Garden Gate (south side of 4S Ranch)  $619000

3 Bedroom – 2.5 Bath – 1,644 SF home on Manassas on the south side of 4S Ranch (front door is on 4S Ranch Pkwy) $525,000

We have two more coming up in the next couple of weeks in Garden Gate.  One is 1900+ sf with a sunset view and the other is 2,344 sf with a view of Black Mountain.  More on those next week.

Also, if you are looking for a view home with a pool in San Marcos, we will have one near the end of the month.

That’s it – Enjoy the Coffee!

Winning

His mother told us the story the day after.

          Kenneth was in junior high school and was excited and eager about participating in a day of Special Olympics events.  While his parents watched expectantly from the stands, he ran, and won the first race.  He was proud of his ribbon and the cheers from the crowd.

          He ran in the second race.  Just at the finish line, when he again would have won, he stopped, then stepped off the track.  His parents gently questioned him.  “Why did you do that, Kenneth?  If you had continued running, you would have won another race.”

          Kenneth innocently replied, “But, Mom, I already have a ribbon.  Billy didn’t have a ribbon yet.”

Clifford and Jerie Furness

Have a Great Week!

Scott Voak

858 688 0189