Monday Morning Coffee

Does the Statistical Recovery Have Legs?

Good Morning!

I hope you had a nice weekend.  It was nice to see San Diego weather make a return appearance on Sunday – hope it stays around for awhile.  We had a slow weekend, I worked a half day Saturday and Sunday but got to spend some good time with Zach in the mornings and Cori in the evening (fired up the Jacuzzi for the first time in several months on Saturday). 

We are still staying busy as we listed two homes last week (details below) and put one buyer into escrow.  Countywide, inventory stayed fairly steady last week. 

I saw an interesting article (Thoughts from the Frontline by John Mauldin) addressing the economy.  It talked about the conflicting signals we are seeing in the economy:

On the positive side:

• Corporations are more productive and have more cash on hand than anytime in the last 50 years. 
• The amount of corporate debt is falling, meaning companies are getting stronger financially.
• Capital spending jumped last quarter – a good sign for employment because once you by the capital equipment, you have to hire someone to run it.
• We are close to the point where we will stop losing jobs and start adding them (if trends continue)

On the negative side:

• More than 5 million homeowners are behind on  mortgages.
• 30% of manufacturing capacity is idle (meaning companies don’t have to buy a lot of new equipment (which creates jobs in making the new equipment), but can just absorb the idle capacity).
• 19 million homes 15% of the total, are vacant.
• 1 in 6 Americans is underemployed or unemployed.
• Average American worker has lost $100k in wealth over the last 2 years.
• Transfer payments (read welfare and unemployment) from the US Government make up 18% of personal income!

Stop and read that last one again.  1 of every 5 dollars that an American puts into his account is coming from the rest of the taxpayers through the government as unemployment or welfare.  Ouch. 

The point of the article was that some of the signals are pointing to a recover and the Fed may be watchful for inflation, but that there are a lot of indicators (mainly employment the level of federal subsidies) that indicate the economy is still very fragile.  It did not draw any conclusions or make any predictions, but did note that this seems to be a very “statistical recover” and not really a recovery that is helping the people – therefore when the stimulus ends, so could the recovery.  It will be interesting to see – but I am tired of interesting, let’s just turn this thing around already.

As I mentioned above, we did take two listings last week.  Prep and photos are this week and next, but if anyone is interested, here are the details:

Tierrasanta – 3 beds, 2.5 baths about 1500 sf with open space behind.  This one will go out at about $450k.

4S Ranch – 3 beds, 2.5 baths about 2344 sf on a corner lot.  This will be about $600k.

If you are interested, let me know and I will try and get you in during the photos.

Well, the kitchen faucet just broke, so time to wrap it up and head to Home Depot.  Enjoy the Coffee!

Crabby Old Man

When an old man died in the geriatric ward of a nursing home  in North Platte , Nebraska , it was believed that he had nothing left of any value.   Later, when the nurses were going through his meager possessions, they found this poem. Its quality and content so impressed the staff that copies were made and distributed to every nurse in the hospital. One nurse took her copy to Missouri. 

The old man’s sole bequest to posterity has since appeared in the Christmas edition of the News Magazine of the St. Louis Association for Mental Health. A slide presentation has also been made based on his simple, but eloquent, poem. And this little old man, with nothing left to give to the world, is now the author of this ‘anonymous’ poem winging across the Internet.

Crabby Old Man

What do you see nurses? . . . .. . What do you see?
What are you thinking . . . . . When you’re looking at me?
A crabby old man . . . . . Not very wise,
Uncertain of habit . . . . . With faraway eyes?

Who dribbles his food . . . . . And makes no reply.
When you say in a loud voice . . . . . ‘I do wish you’d try!’
Who seems not to notice . . . . . The things that you do.
And forever is losing . . . . . A sock or shoe?

Who, resisting or not . . . . . Lets you do as you will,
With bathing and feeding . . . . . The long day to fill?
Is that what you’re thinking? . . . . . Is that what you see?
Then open your eyes, nurse . . . . . You’re not looking at me.

I’ll tell you who I am. . . . . . As I sit here so still,
As I do at your bidding, . . . . . As I eat at your will.
I’m a small child of Ten . . . . . With a father and mother,
Brothers and sisters . . . . . Who love one another.

A young boy of Sixteen . . . . With wings on his feet.
Dreaming that soon now . . . . . A lover he’ll meet.
A groom soon at Twenty . . . . . My heart gives a leap.
Remembering, the vows . . . . . That I promised to keep.

At Twenty-Five, now . . . . . I have young of my own.
Who need me to guide . . . . . And a secure happy home.
A man of Thirty . . . . . My young now grown fast,
Bound to each other . . . . . With ties that should last.

At Forty, my young sons . . . . . Have grown and are gone,
But my woman’s beside me . . . . . To see I don’t mourn.
At Fifty, once more, babies play ’round my knee,
Again, we know children . . . . . My loved one and me.

Dark days are upon me . . . . . My wife is now dead.
I look at the future . . . . . Shudder with dread.
For my young are all rearing . . . . . Young of their own.
And I think of the years . . . . . And the love that I’ve known.

I’m now an old man . . . . . And nature is cruel.
Tis jest to make old age . . . .. . Look like a fool.
The body, it crumbles . . . . . Grace and vigor, depart.
There is now a stone . .. . . Where I once had a heart.

But inside this old carcass . . . . . A young guy still dwells,
And now and again . . . . . My battered heart swells.
I remember the joys . . . . . I remember the pain.
And I’m loving and living . . . . . Life over again.

I think of the years, all too few . . . . . Gone too fast.
And accept the stark fact . . . . That nothing can last.
So open your eyes, people . . . . . Open and see.
Not a crabby old man . . . Look closer . . . See ME!!

Remember this poem when you next meet an older person who you might brush aside without looking at the young soul within. 

We will all, one day, be there, too!

Economy, San Diego Real Estate Market